An Unhealthy America: The Economic Burden of ... - Milken Institute

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An Unhealthy AmericaMilken InstituteMaineMaineDirect Costs2003 2023Projections - Level Projections - DifferenceAvoidable Costs(US$ Billions)Expenditure perPRC ($)Total Expenditure(US$ Billions) PRC (Thousands)PRC (Thousands) Expenditure per PRC ($)Baseline Optimistic Baseline Optimistic Baseline Optimistic Absolute Percent Absolute Percent Absolute PercentTotal Expenditure(US$ Billions)Expenditure per PRC($)PRC(Thousands)Chronic DiseaseDiseaseExpenditures(Billions)PRC*(Millions)Cancer 48.1 10.6 4.5Breast Cancer 5.5 1.1 4.8Colon Cancer 3.9 0.3 11.5Lung Cancer 6.3 0.4 17.1Prostate Cancer 4.3 1.0 4.1Other Cancers 28.0 7.7 3.6Pulmonary Conditions 45.2 49.2 0.9Diabetes 27.1 13.7 2.0Hypertension 32.5 36.8 0.9Heart Disease 64.7 19.2 3.4Cancer 53 4,743 0.25 84 69 10,261 9,118 0.86 0.63 -15 -17.71 -1,143 -11.14 -0.23 -26.88Breast cancer 6 5,391 0.03 10 8 11,597 10,296 0.11 0.09 -1 -12.30 -1,301 -11.21 -0.02 -22.13Colon cancer 2 11,214 0.02 2 2 26,793 23,803 0.06 0.04 0 -17.67 -2,990 -11.16 -0.01 -26.86Lung cancer 2 17,607 0.04 3 2 37,985 33,725 0.10 0.07 0 -18.44 -4,259 -11.21 -0.03 -27.59Prostate cancer 5 4,766 0.02 9 7 10,531 9,351 0.09 0.06 -2 -21.48 -1,180 -11.20 -0.03 -30.27Other cancers 38 3,716 0.14 61 50 8,303 7,373 0.51 0.37 -11 -18.00 -929 -11.19 -0.14 -27.18Diabetes 69 2,003 0.14 119 104 4,439 3,941 0.53 0.41 -16 -13.30 -497 -11.20 -0.12 -23.01Heart disease 83 2,826 0.23 127 83 6,694 5,946 0.85 0.49 -44 -34.63 -747 -11.16 -0.36 -41.92Pulmonary conditions 274 840 0.23 356 306 1,933 1,717 0.69 0.53 -50 -14.05 -216 -11.18 -0.16 -23.66Hypertension 175 864 0.15 238 193 1,917 1,703 0.46 0.33 -44 -18.70 -215 -11.20 -0.13 -27.80Stroke 13 5,629 0.07 17 14 13,624 12,104 0.24 0.17 -3 -18.84 -1,519 -11.15 -0.07 -27.89Mental disorders 177 1,664 0.29 256 224 3,652 3,243 0.93 0.73 -32 -12.35 -409 -11.20 -0.21 -22.17Total 844 1,627 1.37 1,198 994 4,328 3,845 4.56 3.29 -204 -17.04 -484 -11.18 -1.27 -27.93Indirect Impacts* (US$ Billions)2023Individual Caregiver Total2003TotalLost Work Days Presenteeism Lost Work Days Presenteeism Projections - Level Projections - DifferenceBaseline Optimistic Baseline Optimistic Baseline Optimistic Baseline Optimistic Baseline Optimistic Absolute PercentLevelChronic DiseaseCancer 1.35 0.24 0.20 4.04 2.41 0.017 0.014 0.39 0.25 4.69 2.87 -1.82 -38.80Breast cancer 0.18 0.03 0.03 0.53 0.33 0.002 0.002 0.05 0.04 0.61 0.40 -0.21 -34.83Colon cancer 0.10 0.02 0.01 0.26 0.16 0.001 0.001 0.03 0.02 0.30 0.19 -0.12 -38.79Lung cancer 0.19 0.03 0.02 0.45 0.26 0.002 0.002 0.04 0.03 0.52 0.32 -0.21 -39.40Prostate cancer 0.13 0.03 0.02 0.43 0.24 0.002 0.001 0.04 0.03 0.50 0.29 -0.21 -41.65Other cancers 0.75 0.14 0.11 2.38 1.41 0.010 0.008 0.23 0.15 2.76 1.68 -1.08 -39.06Diabetes 0.53 0.20 0.17 1.61 1.26 0.016 0.014 0.17 0.13 1.99 1.58 -0.41 -20.76Heart disease 0.45 0.29 0.19 1.07 0.59 0.029 0.019 0.10 0.06 1.50 0.85 -0.64 -43.01Asthma 0.52 0.29 0.25 1.05 0.85 0.021 0.018 0.10 0.08 1.46 1.20 -0.26 -17.74Hypertension 1.33 0.57 0.47 2.98 2.36 0.056 0.046 0.29 0.23 3.90 3.10 -0.80 -20.55Stroke 0.12 0.06 0.05 0.26 0.19 0.004 0.003 0.02 0.02 0.34 0.26 -0.08 -23.35Emotional disturbances 1.00 0.34 0.30 2.51 2.11 0.025 0.022 0.24 0.20 3.12 2.63 -0.48 -15.54Total 5.30 2.00 1.63 13.51 9.76 0.17 0.14 1.32 0.98 17.01 12.50 -4.50 -26.48* Based on Nominal GDPExpenditures/PRC(Thousands)Intergenerational Impacts2023 2023 2050 2050Projections - LevelProjections - Difference Projections - Level Projections - DifferenceStroke 13.6 2.4 5.6Mental Disorders 45.8 30.3 1.5Total 277.0 162.2 1.7PRC: Population Reporting ConditionPercentBaseline Optimistic Absolute Percent Baseline Optimistic Absolute1970 2003VariablesBachelor's degrees (percent) 8.40 23.23 26.93 28.68 1.75 6.49 33.44 39.24 5.80 17.34Capital stock (US$ Billions) 25.95 75.73 146.14 151.45 5.31 3.64 380.73 417.71 36.98 9.72Life expectancy at 65 (years) 14.66 18.24 19.95 21.10 1.15 5.74 22.81 25.01 2.20 9.63GDP* by state (US$ Billions) 8.95 39.19 68.39 73.20 4.81 7.04 110.96 130.44 19.48 17.55[ 205 ]
An Unhealthy AmericaMilken InstituteMarylandMarylandDirect Costs2003 2023Avoidable Costs(US$ Billions)Projections - Level Projections - DifferencePRC (Thousands) Expenditure per PRC ($) Total Expenditure(US$ Billions) PRC (Thousands) Expenditure perPRC ($)Baseline Optimistic Baseline Optimistic Baseline Optimistic Absolute Percent Absolute Percent Absolute PercentTotal Expenditure(US$ Billions)Expenditure per PRC($)PRC(Thousands)Chronic DiseaseDiseaseExpenditures(Billions)PRC*(Millions)Cancer 48.1 10.6 4.5Breast Cancer 5.5 1.1 4.8Colon Cancer 3.9 0.3 11.5Cancer 227 4,519 1.03 381 313 8,232 7,475 3.14 2.34 -68 -17.87 -758 -9.20 -0.80 -25.43Breast cancer 22 4,694 0.10 35 30 8,785 7,968 0.30 0.24 -4 -12.30 -817 -9.30 -0.06 -20.45Colon cancer 7 11,876 0.08 9 7 24,226 21,982 0.21 0.16 -2 -17.67 -2,243 -9.26 -0.05 -25.29Lung cancer 7 17,750 0.12 9 7 33,296 30,200 0.30 0.22 -2 -18.44 -3,096 -9.30 -0.08 -26.03Prostate cancer 24 3,650 0.09 42 33 6,984 6,335 0.29 0.21 -9 -21.48 -649 -9.29 -0.08 -28.77Other cancers 168 3,658 0.61 287 235 7,063 6,407 2.02 1.51 -52 -18.00 -656 -9.28 -0.52 -25.62Diabetes 242 1,937 0.47 343 297 3,715 3,370 1.27 1.00 -46 -13.30 -345 -9.29 -0.27 -21.35Heart disease 350 3,351 1.16 491 321 6,788 6,159 3.33 1.98 -170 -34.63 -629 -9.26 -1.36 -40.68Pulmonary conditions 1,088 888 0.96 1,481 1,272 1,758 1,595 2.60 2.03 -208 -14.05 -163 -9.27 -0.57 -22.02Hypertension 682 958 0.65 928 754 1,840 1,669 1.71 1.26 -173 -18.70 -171 -9.29 -0.45 -26.25Stroke 42 5,893 0.25 53 43 12,148 11,024 0.64 0.47 -10 -18.84 -1,124 -9.26 -0.17 -26.36Mental disorders 582 1,263 0.73 908 796 2,403 2,179 2.18 1.73 -112 -12.35 -223 -9.29 -0.45 -20.49Total 3,212 1,626 5.22 4,584 3,797 3,782 3,432 14.88 10.81 -787 -17.17 -350 -9.27 -4.06 -27.31Indirect Impacts* (US$ Billions)2023Individual Caregiver TotalProjections - Difference2003TotalLost Work Days Presenteeism Lost Work Days Presenteeism Projections - LevelBaseline Optimistic Baseline Optimistic Baseline Optimistic Baseline Optimistic Baseline Optimistic Absolute PercentLevelChronic DiseaseCancer 5.83 1.08 0.89 18.34 10.89 0.078 0.064 1.77 1.15 21.28 12.99 -8.28 -38.93Breast cancer 0.60 0.10 0.09 1.78 1.12 0.008 0.007 0.17 0.12 2.06 1.34 -0.72 -34.85Colon cancer 0.46 0.07 0.06 1.24 0.74 0.005 0.004 0.12 0.08 1.44 0.88 -0.56 -38.81Lung cancer 0.69 0.10 0.08 1.77 1.04 0.008 0.006 0.17 0.11 2.05 1.24 -0.81 -39.42Prostate cancer 0.52 0.10 0.08 1.72 0.97 0.007 0.006 0.17 0.10 1.99 1.16 -0.83 -41.66Other cancers 3.56 0.70 0.57 11.84 7.01 0.050 0.041 1.14 0.74 13.73 8.37 -5.37 -39.08Diabetes 1.84 0.57 0.49 4.62 3.62 0.045 0.039 0.49 0.38 5.72 4.53 -1.19 -20.76Heart disease 1.91 1.14 0.74 4.14 2.27 0.112 0.073 0.40 0.22 5.80 3.30 -2.49 -43.01Asthma 2.07 1.22 1.05 4.35 3.53 0.089 0.076 0.42 0.34 6.08 5.00 -1.08 -17.74Hypertension 5.18 2.24 1.82 11.63 9.20 0.220 0.179 1.13 0.89 15.22 12.09 -3.13 -20.55Stroke 0.38 0.18 0.14 0.77 0.58 0.013 0.010 0.08 0.06 1.04 0.79 -0.24 -23.35Emotional disturbances 3.28 1.22 1.07 8.89 7.48 0.089 0.078 0.85 0.72 11.06 9.34 -1.72 -15.54Total 20.49 7.65 6.21 52.75 37.57 0.65 0.52 5.15 3.76 66.19 48.06 -18.13 -27.39* Based on Nominal GDPExpenditures/PRC(Thousands)Intergenerational Impacts2023 2023 2050 2050Projections - Level Projections - Difference Projections - Level Projections - DifferenceLung Cancer 6.3 0.4 17.1Prostate Cancer 4.3 1.0 4.1Other Cancers 28.0 7.7 3.6Pulmonary Conditions 45.2 49.2 0.9Diabetes 27.1 13.7 2.0Hypertension 32.5 36.8 0.9Heart Disease 64.7 19.2 3.4Stroke 13.6 2.4 5.6Mental Disorders 45.8 30.3 1.5Total 277.0 162.2 1.7PRC: Population Reporting ConditionBaseline Optimistic Absolute PercentBaseline Optimistic Absolute Percent1970 2003VariablesBachelor's degrees (percent) 13.90 36.83 41.91 44.64 2.73 6.51 50.79 59.60 8.81 17.34Capital stock (US$ Billions) 121.24 406.45 831.74 862.08 30.34 3.64 2649.89 2907.27 257.38 9.72Life expectancy at 65 (years) 14.51 18.28 19.99 21.14 1.15 5.76 22.86 25.06 2.20 9.63GDP* by state (US$ Billions) 40.43 211.88 345.13 369.51 24.38 7.06 637.09 748.92 111.83 17.55*Based on Real GDP[ 206 ]
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