A Greater Australia: Population, policies and governance - CEDA

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Section 2.4Endnotes1 Henry, K 2009, ‘The shape of things to come: long run forces affecting the Australian economy in coming decades’, Speech to theQueensland University of Technology Business Leader’s Forum, Brisbane, 22 October2 Stafford Smith, M and Ash, A. 2011, ‘Adaptation: reducing risk, gaining opportunity’ in Climate change: science and solutions forAustralia. (Eds Helen Cleugh, Mark Stafford Smith, Michael Battaglia and Paul Graham). CSIRO, Canberra.3 Garnaut, R 2011, The Garnaut Review 2011: Australia in the Global response to Climate Change, Cambridge University Press,Melbourne.4 Steffen, W 2011, The Critical Decade: Climate Science, Risks and Response, Climate Commission Secretariat, Department of ClimateChange and Energy Efficiency, Canberra5 Cleugh, H., Stafford Smith, M., Battaglia, M and Graham, P 2011, Climate change: science and solutions for Australia. CSIRO,Canberra.6 Whetton, P 2011, ‘Future Australian climate scenarios’ in Climate change: science and solutions for Australia. (Eds Helen Cleugh, MarkStafford Smith, Michael Battaglia and Paul Graham). CSIRO, Canberra.7 Ibid, p. 388 Ibid, pp 42–439 Hennessy, K 2011, ‘Climate change impacts’ in Climate change: science and solutions for Australia. (Eds Helen Cleugh, Mark StaffordSmith, Michael Battaglia and Paul Graham). CSIRO, Canberra.10 Ibid, p. 4611 Cleugh et al, op cit, p. 4812 Garnaut, R. 2008, The Garnaut Climate Change Review. Cambridge University Press, Melbourne.13 PMSEIC Independent Working Group 2007, Climate change in Australia: Regional impacts and adaptation – Managing the risk forAustralia, Report prepared for the Prime Minister’s Science, Engineering and Innovation Council, Canberra, June14 Hennessy, K, op cit, p. 4515 Hennessy, K, op cit, p. 5416 PMSEIC Independent Working Group 2010, Challenges at Energy–Water–Carbon Intersections, Report prepared for the Prime Minister’sScience, Engineering and Innovation Council, Canberra, October17 Hennessy, K, op cit, p. 5018 Henry, K, op cit, p. 719 Suppiah, R and Whetton, P H 2007, Observed and projected changes in effective degree-days in Melbourne, 2008–2012, CSIRO,Melbourne, p6220 Hennessy, K, op cit, pp 45 and 5221 Hennessy, K. op cit, p 5622 Hoegh-Guldberg, H. 2008, Australian Tourism and Climate Change, .23 Sustainable Tourism Cooperative Research Centre 2007, Climate Change and Australian Tourism, Sustainable Tourism CRC, Southport,Queensland24 Garnaut, R. op cit, p 13325 Jones, R 2010, ‘A risk management approach to climate change adaptation’, In: Climate change adaptation in New Zealand: Futurescenarios and some sectoral perspectives, (Eds R A C Nottage, D S Wratt, J F Bornman and K Jones). New Zealand Climate ChangeCentre, Wellington26 PMSEIC Independent Working Group 2010, op cit, pp 3–427 Ibid, p. 428 Stafford Smith, M and Ash, A. op cit, p 6229 PMSEIC Independent Working Group 2010, op cit, p 4030 PMSEIC Independent Working Group 2010, op cit, p 531 Stafford Smith, M and Ash, A. op cit, p 6232 Wang, X. and McAllister R. R. J 2011, ‘Adapting to heatwaves and coastal flooding’ in Climate change: science and solutions forAustralia. (Eds Helen Cleugh, Mark Stafford Smith, Michael Battaglia and Paul Graham). CSIRO, Canberra.33 Garnaut, R 2011,The Garnaut Review 2011, Cambridge University Press, Melbourne34 Ibid, p. 10335 Ibid, pp. 103–10436 Measham, T. G., Preston, B. L., Smith, T. F., Brooke, C., Gorddard, R., Withycombe, G. and Morrison, C 2011, ‘Adapting to climate changethrough local municipal planning: barriers and challenges’, Mitigating Adaption Strategy Global Change, doi 10.1007/s11027–011-9302-237 Fankhauser, S., Smith, J. B. and Tol, R. S. J 1999, ‘Weathering climate change: some simple rules to guide adaptation decisions’,Ecological Economics, 30: 67–78A Greater Australia: Population, Policies and Governance103
2.5Climate change implications of a largeAustralian populationBarry BrookBarry Brook, a leading environmental scientist and modeller, is aResearch Professor in ecology and conservation biology at theUniversity of Adelaide’s Environment Institute. He holds the Sir HubertWilkins Chair of Climate Change, and has published three books,over 200 refereed scientific papers, is a highly-cited researcher, andregularly writes articles for the media. He has received many awardsfor his research and outreach, including the 2006 AustralianAcademy of Science Fenner Medal and the 2010 Community Science Educator of the Year.His interests include global change, species extinctions, simulation modelling, energy systemsanalysis (modelling future nuclear and renewable energy scenarios), and synergistic humanimpacts on the biosphere.A Greater Australia: Population, Policies and Governance104
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A Greater Australia:Population, pol
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ContentsForeword CEDA Chief Executi
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ForewordIt is with pleasure that I
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IntroductionResponding to the resul
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IntroductionA more dynamic and vita
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IntroductionSustainabilityConcern a
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IntroductionThe new demographics, h
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Section 1.0Historical perspectives1
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Section 1.1IntroductionJapan’s cr
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Section 1.1Figure 1Forecast number
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Section 1.1Table 1Defence spending
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Section 1.1How much defence is enou
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Section 1.1ConclusionA substantial
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Section 1.2There has been over a ce
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Section 1.2Resource constraints wer
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Section 1.2Similarly, in the 1994 H
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Section 1.2ReferencesAustralia, Dep
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Section 1.3IntroductionAustralia is
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Section 1.3The grey 90sThe heady ex
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Section 1.3Taylor’s stony rebutta
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Section 1.3Figure 1The Benhamite Op
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Section 1.3In mathematical terms, t
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Section 1.3characterisation of the
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Section 1.3ConclusionA retrospectiv
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Section 2.0Population futures2.1 Fo
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Section 2.1Conventional population
Page 54 and 55: Section 2.1It is more useful for go
Page 56 and 57: Section 2.1Forecasting of births, w
Page 58 and 59: Section 2.1Future net overseas migr
Page 60 and 61: Section 2.13). This had a lot to do
Page 62 and 63: Section 2.2IntroductionIn late Sept
Page 64 and 65: Section 2.2Figure 1The migrant cont
Page 66 and 67: Section 2.2The visa and residency s
Page 68 and 69: Section 2.2sponsorship, subject to
Page 70 and 71: Section 2.2Figure 3Historical and p
Page 72 and 73: Section 2.2The views in this chapte
Page 74 and 75: Section 2.3IntroductionThe Australi
Page 76 and 77: Section 2.3Figure 3Australia: Distr
Page 78 and 79: Section 2.3Table 2Australia: Popula
Page 80 and 81: Section 2.3Table 4Views of Australi
Page 82 and 83: Section 2.3Table 5Australian States
Page 84 and 85: Section 2.3A number of hypotheses h
Page 86 and 87: Section 2.3Table 8Australia: Distri
Page 88 and 89: Section 2.3Table 10Non-Metropolitan
Page 90 and 91: Section 2.3Policy issuesThe configu
Page 92 and 93: Section 2.3Climate change is likely
Page 94 and 95: Section 2.3ConclusionAny realistic
Page 96 and 97: Section 2.340 Swan, W., 2010.Austra
Page 98 and 99: Section 2.4IntroductionThe Australi
Page 100 and 101: Section 2.4At present there is a hi
Page 102 and 103: Section 2.4innovation initiatives w
Page 106 and 107: Section 2.5IntroductionAustralia is
Page 108 and 109: Section 2.5else. Even with a broad
Page 110 and 111: Section 2.5commercially viable - th
Page 112 and 113: Section 2.5A vast country like Aust
Page 114 and 115: Section 3.0Society and the individu
Page 116 and 117: Section 3.1Extent of public opinion
Page 119 and 120: Section 3.1category immigrant/forei
Page 121 and 122: Section 3.1The Environics Research
Page 123 and 124: Section 3.1Per cent100908070Figure
Page 125 and 126: Section 3.1A number of surveys soug
Page 127 and 128: Section 3.1Table 8Percentage who an
Page 129 and 130: Section 3.1A more precise indicatio
Page 131 and 132: Section 3.1The strongest predictor
Page 133 and 134: Section 3.1Endnotes1. There is also
Page 135 and 136: 3.2Social inclusion and multicultur
Page 137 and 138: Section 3.2a broader definition of
Page 139 and 140: Section 3.2Figure 1Estimated povert
Page 141 and 142: Section 3.2Table 2Visa Type of Sett
Page 143 and 144: Section 3.2Table 5First Generation
Page 145 and 146: Section 3.2Table 6Australia: First
Page 147 and 148: Section 3.2Improving outcomes for v
Page 149 and 150: Section 3.2increasing diversity of
Page 151 and 152: 3.3Linkages between education and p
Page 153 and 154: Section 3.3Education and productivi
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Section 3.3In the past decade, prod
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Section 3.3succeed in education or
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Section 3.3case, funding also could
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Section 3.3Endnotes1 IGR 2010: Chal
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3.4Healthcare delivery for our agei
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Section 3.4• Private medical serv
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Section 3.4the whole spectrum of in
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Section 3.45. Experiences, pathways
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Section 3.4Stratification of patien
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Section 3.4Other steps include impr
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Section 3.438 National Health Refor
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4.1The economic effects ofpopulatio
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Section 4.1population growth can ex
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Section 4.1In theory, the answer pa
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Section 4.1Kirchner concedes that t
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Section 4.1Endnotes1. Productivity
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4.2Urban infrastructure and land us
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Section 4.2bearing the fixed costs
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Section 4.2Figure 1Indicative dwell
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Section 4.2Taking the electricity,
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Section 4.2Promoting better land us
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Section 4.2preferences to homeowner
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Section 4.2in any Australian urban
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Section 4.2Endnotes1 Productivity C
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4.3Water security:Water for the far
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Section 4.3Water trading enables us
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Section 4.3cent of water entitlemen
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Section 4.3were either the full eco
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Section 4.3Strategic opportunitiesA
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4.4Critiquing governmentregional de
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Section 4.4However, there is often
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Section 4.4Potential policy interve
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Section 4.4Unfortunately, advocacy
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Section 4.4contribute substantially
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Section 4.418 Department of Educati
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5.1The future of population policyG
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Section 5.1a million fewer women in
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Section 5.1For the present, ongoing
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Section 5.1The second worry is that
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Section 5.1The now significantly de
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