A Greater Australia: Population, policies and governance - CEDA

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Section 3.1Table 11Survey results – what do you think are the most important problems facingAustralia today? 2010, 2011RankIssue2010First mention2011First mention1 Economy/ unemployment/ poverty 22.2% 25.5%2 Environment – climate change/ watershortages (concern)Environment – overreaction to climatechange/ carbon tax (sceptical)15.1%11.4%6.3%17.7%3 Quality of government/ politicians 11.2% 12.7%4 Immigration/ population growth (concern)5.2%Immigration/population – too low/ needmore people (supportive)6.8%1.7%6.9%5 Asylum seekers – too many/ refugees/boat people/ illegal immigrants (negativecomment)Asylum seekers – poor treatment, sympathytowards refugees/ boat people/ illegalimmigrants6.4%4.0%2.6%6.6%6 Social issues – (family, child care, druguse, family breakdown, lack of personaldirection, etc)6.4% 6.0%7 Health/ medical/ hospitals 5.6% 4.2%8Housing shortage/ affordability/ interestrates2.1% 3.1%9 Crime/ law and order 3.8% 1.7%10 Racism 1.1% 1.6%10 Education/ schools 2.2% 1.4%12 Indigenous issues 0.1% 0.8%13 Industrial relations/ trade unions na 0.6%14 Defence/ national security/ terrorism na 0.5%15 Other/ nothing/ don’t know 16.1% 10.8%Total 100% 100%N (unweighted) 2021 2001Source: Scanlon Foundation (Markus 2010–2011)participate in a religious service at least once a month; and those who indicate that theyare likely to vote Greens). 30Explaining change over time in national opinion is a more challenging undertaking thanconsidering demographic variables.A Greater Australia: Population, Policies and Governance129
Section 3.1The strongest predictor of change is the economic environment. Negative views ofimmigration peak at times of increasing and high unemployment. In the early 1990s, forexample, as the level of unemployment in Australia increased from 5.8 per cent to 10.7per cent, those who considered that immigration was too high formed a large majority,as has been discussed.An important secondary factor is the extent to which immigration becomes a controversialissue in national politics. Negative sentiment increases when a political partycriticises government handling of immigration and campaigns for a change in policy,evident, for example, during debates over Asian immigration (1980s) and the period ofprominence of Pauline Hanson (1998).The increasing support for the immigration policies of the Howard Government waslinked to its success in establishing its border control credentials, conveying thesurety that its policies on immigration and asylum were serving the national interest,not sectional groups. The perception of subservience to sectional interests bedevilledthe Hawke and Keating Governments. Also of major importance for the success ofthe Howard Government was the decline in unemployment and sustained economicgrowth. 31What, then, happened to explain the moderate fall in support for immigration between2007–2010?Economic concerns seem not to have been a key factor. The Global Financial Crisishad unexpected limited impact on the Australian labour market, with unemploymentincreasing from 4.2 per cent in July 2008 to a peak of 5.8 per cent in December2009. Scanlon Foundation surveying of the sense of economic security indicated nosignificant change between 2007 and 2010.Three factors seem to have been the key contributors to the limited shift in opinion.First, the issue of asylum seekers arriving by boat gained increasing attention from2008 onwards. Boat arrivals brought the issue of immigration to national prominence.Factor analysis of the 2011 Scanlon Foundation survey establishes a strong associationbetween views on asylum and immigration. Negative views of boat arrivals arecorrelated with negative views on the value of a diverse immigrant intake, governmenthandling of the asylum issue, Muslims, the current immigration intake and governmentsupport to ethnic minorities to maintain their customs and traditions.Second, consideration of future population levels sparked by government planning,following the release of the Third Intergenerational Report, also brought discussionof immigration into the public realm. In the 2010 election campaign the Oppositionunder the leadership of Tony Abbott campaigned for a reduction in immigration, withgovernment ministers on the defensive as they sought to explain that changes alreadyimplemented would result in a reduction.Third, the asylum and “Big Australia” controversies developed in the context of the government’sweakening electoral legitimacy, and contributed to that process. A key issuefor acceptance or opposition to immigration policy is the extent to which governmentis seen to be in control of the program. Between June 2009 and June 2010 confidencein the Federal Government fell sharply; those of the view that government would “dothe right thing for the Australian people” “almost always” or “most of the time” fell from48 per cent to 31 per cent.A Greater Australia: Population, Policies and Governance130
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A Greater Australia:Population, pol
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ContentsForeword CEDA Chief Executi
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ForewordIt is with pleasure that I
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IntroductionResponding to the resul
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IntroductionA more dynamic and vita
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IntroductionSustainabilityConcern a
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IntroductionThe new demographics, h
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Section 1.0Historical perspectives1
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Section 1.1IntroductionJapan’s cr
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Section 1.1Figure 1Forecast number
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Section 1.1Table 1Defence spending
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Section 1.1How much defence is enou
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Section 1.1ConclusionA substantial
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Section 1.2There has been over a ce
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Section 1.2Resource constraints wer
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Section 1.2Similarly, in the 1994 H
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Section 1.2ReferencesAustralia, Dep
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Section 1.3IntroductionAustralia is
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Section 1.3The grey 90sThe heady ex
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Section 1.3Taylor’s stony rebutta
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Section 1.3Figure 1The Benhamite Op
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Section 1.3In mathematical terms, t
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Section 1.3characterisation of the
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Section 1.3ConclusionA retrospectiv
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Section 2.0Population futures2.1 Fo
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Section 2.1Conventional population
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Section 2.1It is more useful for go
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Section 2.1Forecasting of births, w
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Section 2.1Future net overseas migr
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Section 2.13). This had a lot to do
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Section 2.2IntroductionIn late Sept
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Section 2.2Figure 1The migrant cont
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Section 2.2The visa and residency s
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Section 2.2sponsorship, subject to
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Section 2.2Figure 3Historical and p
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Section 2.2The views in this chapte
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Section 2.3IntroductionThe Australi
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Section 2.3Figure 3Australia: Distr
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Section 2.3Table 2Australia: Popula
Page 80 and 81: Section 2.3Table 4Views of Australi
Page 82 and 83: Section 2.3Table 5Australian States
Page 84 and 85: Section 2.3A number of hypotheses h
Page 86 and 87: Section 2.3Table 8Australia: Distri
Page 88 and 89: Section 2.3Table 10Non-Metropolitan
Page 90 and 91: Section 2.3Policy issuesThe configu
Page 92 and 93: Section 2.3Climate change is likely
Page 94 and 95: Section 2.3ConclusionAny realistic
Page 96 and 97: Section 2.340 Swan, W., 2010.Austra
Page 98 and 99: Section 2.4IntroductionThe Australi
Page 100 and 101: Section 2.4At present there is a hi
Page 102 and 103: Section 2.4innovation initiatives w
Page 104 and 105: Section 2.4Endnotes1 Henry, K 2009,
Page 106 and 107: Section 2.5IntroductionAustralia is
Page 108 and 109: Section 2.5else. Even with a broad
Page 110 and 111: Section 2.5commercially viable - th
Page 112 and 113: Section 2.5A vast country like Aust
Page 114 and 115: Section 3.0Society and the individu
Page 116 and 117: Section 3.1Extent of public opinion
Page 119 and 120: Section 3.1category immigrant/forei
Page 121 and 122: Section 3.1The Environics Research
Page 123 and 124: Section 3.1Per cent100908070Figure
Page 125 and 126: Section 3.1A number of surveys soug
Page 127 and 128: Section 3.1Table 8Percentage who an
Page 129: Section 3.1A more precise indicatio
Page 133 and 134: Section 3.1Endnotes1. There is also
Page 135 and 136: 3.2Social inclusion and multicultur
Page 137 and 138: Section 3.2a broader definition of
Page 139 and 140: Section 3.2Figure 1Estimated povert
Page 141 and 142: Section 3.2Table 2Visa Type of Sett
Page 143 and 144: Section 3.2Table 5First Generation
Page 145 and 146: Section 3.2Table 6Australia: First
Page 147 and 148: Section 3.2Improving outcomes for v
Page 149 and 150: Section 3.2increasing diversity of
Page 151 and 152: 3.3Linkages between education and p
Page 153 and 154: Section 3.3Education and productivi
Page 155 and 156: Section 3.3In the past decade, prod
Page 157 and 158: Section 3.3succeed in education or
Page 159 and 160: Section 3.3case, funding also could
Page 161 and 162: Section 3.3Endnotes1 IGR 2010: Chal
Page 163 and 164: 3.4Healthcare delivery for our agei
Page 165 and 166: Section 3.4• Private medical serv
Page 167 and 168: Section 3.4the whole spectrum of in
Page 169 and 170: Section 3.45. Experiences, pathways
Page 171 and 172: Section 3.4Stratification of patien
Page 173 and 174: Section 3.4Other steps include impr
Page 175 and 176: Section 3.438 National Health Refor
Page 177 and 178: 4.1The economic effects ofpopulatio
Page 179 and 180: Section 4.1population growth can ex
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Section 4.1In theory, the answer pa
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Section 4.1Kirchner concedes that t
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Section 4.1Endnotes1. Productivity
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4.2Urban infrastructure and land us
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Section 4.2bearing the fixed costs
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Section 4.2Figure 1Indicative dwell
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Section 4.2Taking the electricity,
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Section 4.2Promoting better land us
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Section 4.2preferences to homeowner
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Section 4.2in any Australian urban
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Section 4.2Endnotes1 Productivity C
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4.3Water security:Water for the far
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Section 4.3Water trading enables us
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Section 4.3cent of water entitlemen
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Section 4.3were either the full eco
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Section 4.3Strategic opportunitiesA
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4.4Critiquing governmentregional de
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Section 4.4However, there is often
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Section 4.4Potential policy interve
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Section 4.4Unfortunately, advocacy
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Section 4.4contribute substantially
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Section 4.418 Department of Educati
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5.1The future of population policyG
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Section 5.1a million fewer women in
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Section 5.1For the present, ongoing
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Section 5.1The second worry is that
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Section 5.1The now significantly de
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