A Greater Australia: Population, policies and governance - CEDA

Section 3.1A number of surveys sought to establish attitudes to the projected population of 35.9million. One approach provided a set of numbers (25, 30, 35, 40 million) and askedwhich represented the best population target.Such questions make little sense to those polled. Respondents lack the knowledge tomake an informed judgment and, as to be expected in such a context, responses areranged along a normal curve – that is, the most common response is at the mid-pointof the range of options presented to respondents, then either side of the mid-point,with a small proportion selecting the extreme or outer positions. The results obtained25 26by Lowy and Morgan polls conducted in March 2010 are presented in Figure 3.This pattern of response and its meaning seemingly escaped the media, which choseto interpret the findings as indicating lack of support for a “Big Australia”. Thus the findingsof the Lowy survey were presented by ABC News under the headline: “Australianswary of 36m population target” and by The Australian as: “Two-thirds of population areopposed to Big Australia”.The 2010 Scanlon Foundation survey took a different approach. Respondents wereasked for views on the much discussed 36 million projection, not a range of possiblenumerical targets. The question employed a five-point scale, ranging from much toolarge to much too small. Fifty-one per cent of respondents indicated that 36 million wastoo large, 37 per cent that it was about right and five per cent that it was too small.This result is only marginally different from the view on the current level of immigrationand points to the likelihood that questions on future population are linked in theminds of respondents to the current level of immigration: that is, those respondentswho consider the current intake to be too high are likely to view targets indicatingsubstantial population growth as too high, with a similar distribution pattern in responseto the about right and too low options. The correlated pattern of response is indicatedin Figure 4. On the basis of this finding, it is argued that questions concerning thecurrent immigration intake provide the best indicator of receptivity to future populationgrowth.Figure 3Best target population for Australia in the next 40 years (Lowy)/ in 2040(Morgan) 2010Per cent504540MorganLowy35302520151050ReduceCurrent30/25; 30 million40/30; 35 million50/+; 35/+ millionSource: Hanson 2010: 18; Roy Morgan Research, Finding number 4482, March 2010.A Greater Australia: Population, Policies and Governance124