Section 1.3ConclusionA retrospective on attempts to underst<strong>and</strong> the implications of <strong>Australia</strong>n populationgrowth is not impressive. We see analysts sometimes misled by current demographictendencies – <strong>and</strong> blindsided by later demographic shifts; other times casting a priorinet that become tangled in submerged complexities; or fixated on one dimension of aproblem with many aspects. <strong>Australia</strong>n population has proved a complex topic that atthe same time both calls for intense study <strong>and</strong> defies it.I would like to thank Jonathan Pincus for his useful criticisms of an earlier draft. I amalso indebted to the comments of Graeme Wells, <strong>and</strong> to John Hawkins for drawing myattention to the significance of Edward Pulsford.Endnotes1 Wakefield, Edward Gibbon, A letter from Sydney <strong>and</strong> other writings on colonization, p 19, London, J.M. Dent.2 Wakefield’s father managed some financial affairs of David Ricardo.3 Wakefield, Edward Gibbon, A letter from Sydney <strong>and</strong> other writings on colonization, p 17, London, J.M. Dent.4 Mill, Principles of Political Economy, 3 Chapter VIII.5 How to ensure that increased population did not result merely in a more extensive collection of subsistence households? Wakefield’sanswer: sell Crown l<strong>and</strong> at a price that was out of reach of the bulk of the population, leaving labour to either work as hired h<strong>and</strong>s insurplus producing agricultural properties, or to seek work in towns <strong>and</strong> thereby promote the division of labour. The revenues from l<strong>and</strong>sales would also pay for infrastructure in a way that would at least partly justify the high price. This fiscal manoeuvre was used in 19thcSouth <strong>Australia</strong>, <strong>and</strong> favoured by the Commonwealth Development <strong>and</strong> Migration Commission of 1928. Otherwise Wakefield receiveda mixed reception locally <strong>and</strong> only partial implementation.6 EOG Shann, An Economic History of <strong>Australia</strong>, chapter 12; David Cameron, ‘Closer Settlement in Queensl<strong>and</strong>: the Rise <strong>and</strong> Declineof the Agrarian Dream,’ 1860s–1960s, in Davison, Graeme <strong>and</strong> Marc Brodie Struggle country: the rural ideal in twentieth century<strong>Australia</strong>, Clayton, Vic. : Monash University ePress7 The largest decadal rate of growth subsequently recorded was 55 per cent in 1958.8 <strong>Australia</strong>n Dictionary of Biography.9 Pulsford adds: “The next Centennial must, however, have one sad record in the matter of population. The aboriginals of <strong>Australia</strong> willhave been long extinct ... Poor fellows, it was not for their good that Cook ‘discovered’ <strong>Australia</strong>’.”10 Pulsford was the author of Freedom in New South Wales Versus Oppression in Victoria.11 Otto C Lightner, The History of Business Depressions.12 Coghlan, p 25.13 Neville Hicks, The Sin <strong>and</strong> the Sc<strong>and</strong>al: <strong>Australia</strong>’s population debate, 1891–1911.14 <strong>Australia</strong>n Dictionary of Biography.15 Commonwealth Year Book, 191116 Clarence <strong>and</strong> Richmond Examiner, Tuesday 11 June 1912.17 Brady, p 101.18 Brady, p 159.19 Brady, p 680.20 The West <strong>Australia</strong>n, 22 August 1921 p 7.21 “<strong>Australia</strong>”, said Mr Hughes, “is big enough for a population five times its present size. lt wants more people.” Barrier Miner, 27 October1920.22 The Brisbane Courier, 23 September 1921 p 7.23 Taylor, Griffith, “Frontiers of Settlement in <strong>Australia</strong>” Geographical Review, Vol. 16, No. 124 The emphasis on desert is accompanied by a disparagement of Tropical <strong>Australia</strong>: “The oft-quoted success of almost all economictropical plants in the Botanical Gardens at Darwin speaks of the care of the director rather than the capability of the Territory.” (Griffith,Environment <strong>and</strong> Race, p 274).25 The Sydney Morning Herald, 30 April 1926 p 12.26 £10m is $682m 2010 prices. In fact, the completion of the Alice Springs to Darwin railway in 2004 cost $1300m.27 The Sydney Morning Herald, 6 November 1928 p 8.28 Carolyn Strange <strong>and</strong> Alison Bashford, Griffith Taylor, National Library of <strong>Australia</strong> p 130.29 The Argus, 23 April 1948 p 1.30 The Sydney Morning Herald, 30 April 1926 p 12.31 Taylor, Griffith, Environment <strong>and</strong> Race, a Study of the Evolution, Migration, Settlement <strong>and</strong> Status of the Races of Man, London, p 334.32 Wikipedia33 The Sydney Morning Herald, 7 November 1928 p 10.34 See Carolyn Strange <strong>and</strong> Alison Ashford, Griffith Taylor, <strong>and</strong> Joseph Michael Powell, Griffith Taylor <strong>and</strong> “<strong>Australia</strong> unlimited”, for accountsof Taylor’s confrontation with populationists.A <strong>Greater</strong> <strong>Australia</strong>: <strong>Population</strong>, Policies <strong>and</strong> Governance47
Section 1.335 W.D. Foresyth, The Myth of Open Spaces, p 68.36 See William Coleman, Selwyn Cornish <strong>and</strong> Alf Hagger, Giblin’s Platoon: The Trials <strong>and</strong> Triumphs of the Economist in <strong>Australia</strong>n PublicLife, ANU EPress37 S.J. Butlin, ‘Frederic Benham: 1900–62’, Economic Record 38(83), p 386–388.38 F.C. Benham, ‘The Optimum Size of <strong>Population</strong>’ The Peopling of <strong>Australia</strong>, P.D. Phillips ed, p 254.39 F.C. Benham, ‘The Optimum Size of <strong>Population</strong>’ The Peopling of <strong>Australia</strong>, P.D. Phillips ed, p 257.40 F.C. Benham, The Prosperity of <strong>Australia</strong>: An Economic Analysis.41 This property of the optimum is pointed out by J.D. Pitchford, The Economics of <strong>Population</strong>: An Introduction: at the optimum the averageproduct of labour equals the marginal product, which is what labour is paid in a competitive environment.42 Of course, one could imagine redistributions between factors so that the optimum actually improves all.43 ∂Y/∂N = y(l)−ly’. The right h<strong>and</strong> side is negative if y 0 at the optimum population.Scitovsky, “Two Concepts of External Economics”, Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 62 p.14346 Arthur Smithies, 1938, The future of the <strong>Australia</strong>n <strong>Population</strong>, in <strong>Australia</strong>n <strong>Population</strong>, Sydney, <strong>Australia</strong>n Institute of InternationalAffairs.47 The marginal utility product of potato labour = marginal utility of potatoes* marginal potato product of labour.48 Smithies sophisticates his analysis by allowing for international trade. If all boots were exported for an importable. there would bemarginal utility product of boot export labour that would bear the same general shape as boot marginal utility product of boots labour;but would bend down more sharply on account of a second downward pressure in addition to diminishing marginal utility: the terms oftrade worsen as boot production is increased.49 Peter Karmel, <strong>Population</strong> <strong>and</strong> Policy, p 21.50 Pitchford appears to be the only post 1930s economist who explores it.51 Martin Bell, 1992, ‘Demographic Projections <strong>and</strong> Forecasts in <strong>Australia</strong>: a Directory <strong>and</strong> Digest”, <strong>Australia</strong>n Government PublishingService.52 SH Wolstenholme, ‘The Future of <strong>Australia</strong>n <strong>Population</strong>:’ Economic Record 12 (23), p 195–213.53 W.D. Borrie, 1947 A White <strong>Australia</strong>: <strong>Australia</strong>’s <strong>Population</strong> Problem. That WD Borrie, “the founder of <strong>Australia</strong>n demography” entitledthis volume A White <strong>Australia</strong>: <strong>Australia</strong>’s <strong>Population</strong> Problem is another reminder that the European ethnicity of <strong>Australia</strong>’s populationwas almost universally treated as a policy parameter in this period. It is the rarity of the exceptions that are interesting: Griffith Taylorrecommending the “mingling” of white <strong>Australia</strong>n population with Asians, <strong>and</strong> FW Eggleston’s 1937 remark that “a mixture of races ison the whole good”.54 A more measured pessimism about fertility in post-War <strong>Australia</strong> is found in Peter Karmel, ‘<strong>Population</strong> Replacement – <strong>Australia</strong>,Economic Record 25 (49) 83–88.55 In 1971 John Coulter (<strong>Australia</strong>n Democrat Senator 1987–1995) explained: ‘Why is it that population cannot continue to exp<strong>and</strong>indefinitely? Quite simply the planet earth is finite <strong>and</strong> at our present rate in a few hundred years there will be st<strong>and</strong>ing room only, onlya few hundred years after that the heat radiated by human bodies would raise the temp of the earth surface to that of molten iron.”<strong>Population</strong>, the main polluter: condensed papers symposium, <strong>Australia</strong>n <strong>and</strong> New Zeal<strong>and</strong> Association for the Advancement of Science,South <strong>Australia</strong>n Division56 K.D Cocks, People Policy: <strong>Australia</strong>’s <strong>Population</strong> Choices, <strong>and</strong> Mark O’Connor, This tired brown l<strong>and</strong>. Doug Cocks stated: “<strong>Population</strong>growth will reduce per capita share/access to those unique natural goods, like snow-fields, beaches <strong>and</strong> recreational rivers, which noteven the most prosperous economy can create.”57 Steve Vizard, Hugh J. Martin <strong>and</strong> Tim Watts, <strong>Australia</strong>’s <strong>Population</strong> Challenge.A <strong>Greater</strong> <strong>Australia</strong>: <strong>Population</strong>, Policies <strong>and</strong> Governance48
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