A Greater Australia: Population, policies and governance - CEDA

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ForewordIt is with pleasure that I present CEDA’s latest major researchreport, A Greater Australia: Population, policies and governance.This publication is a culmination of two years of work and drawstogether 17 expert contributions from across Australia. CEDAhas undertaken this project, under the editorship of ProfessorsJonathan Pincus and Graeme Hugo, to provide considered discussionon the future population of Australia, dispel myths, highlightconstraints and make policy recommendations.Population is a topic that receives much attention, but comment and debate is notalways backed by rigorous analysis.Public unease with the population debate is often centred around government policyor planning failures, from inadequate service provision to poor infrastructure planning.This highlights the importance of government policy being developed from robust discussionsand a strong foundation of facts.The key policy recommendations CEDA is making as a result of this publication arethat:The Federal Government should establish an Australian Population Council (APC), tocoordinate government service delivery nationally in response to population changes.The APC should be responsible for annual projections of demographic change for thepurpose of ensuring smooth State and Federal Government service delivery.In particular, the focus should be on the areas of infrastructure delivery (roads andcommunity infrastructure), education and health requirements. This would allowmore proactive policy responses to population changes as they emerge, rather thanreactively.In addition, the Federal Government should supplement the Intergenerational Report,which examines the ramifications of an ageing population, with a Future GenerationReport, which examines the participation, education and training solutions that couldmitigate the negative elements of Australia’s current age structure. For example, examiningways of ensuring longer workforce participation.The nation’s leaders must not shy away from having a robust discussion aroundAustralia’s future demography and its implications for public policy. CEDA hopes thispublication will provide an important resource in driving that discussion.I would like to thank the editors and all the contributing authors for their work towardsthis publication.Ultimately the greatness of Australia as a place to live and work will be determined bythe policies underpinning population change. CEDA hopes this document will contributeto making a greater Australia.Professor the Hon Stephen MartinChief ExecutiveCEDAA Greater Australia: Population, Policies and Governance5
IntroductionJonathan Pincus and Graeme HugoJonathan Pincus is a member of the Policy and Research Council of CEDA. Jonathan is Visiting Professor ofEconomics at the University of Adelaide, and an independent economic researcher and consultant. Previously,he was principal adviser, research at the Productivity Commission; Professor of Economics at AdelaideUniversity; Professor of Economic History at Flinders University; and a researcher at the Centre for the Studyof Public Choice (Virginia, USA). He is president of the SA Branch of the Economic Society of Australia, andFellow of the Academy of Social Science in Australia.Professor Graeme Hugo is an ARC Australian Professorial Fellow, Professor of the Discipline of Geography,Environment and Population and Director of the Australian Population and Migration Research Centre at theUniversity of Adelaide. Graeme has published over 300 books, scholarly journal articles, chapters, conferencepapers and reports. In 2002 he secured an ARC Federation Fellowship over five years, and in 2009 he wasawarded an ARC Australian Professorial Fellowship. He is chair of the Demographic Change and LiveabilityPanel of the Ministry of Sustainability, Environment, Water, Population and Communities and was appointed tothe National Housing Supply Council in 2011.A Greater Australia: Population, Policies and Governance6
Page 2 and 3: A Greater Australia:Population, pol
Page 4 and 5: ContentsForeword CEDA Chief Executi
Page 8 and 9: IntroductionResponding to the resul
Page 10 and 11: IntroductionA more dynamic and vita
Page 12 and 13: IntroductionSustainabilityConcern a
Page 14 and 15: IntroductionThe new demographics, h
Page 16 and 17: Section 1.0Historical perspectives1
Page 18 and 19: Section 1.1IntroductionJapan’s cr
Page 20 and 21: Section 1.1Figure 1Forecast number
Page 22 and 23: Section 1.1Table 1Defence spending
Page 24 and 25: Section 1.1How much defence is enou
Page 26 and 27: Section 1.1ConclusionA substantial
Page 28 and 29: Section 1.2There has been over a ce
Page 30 and 31: Section 1.2Resource constraints wer
Page 32 and 33: Section 1.2Similarly, in the 1994 H
Page 34 and 35: Section 1.2ReferencesAustralia, Dep
Page 36 and 37: Section 1.3IntroductionAustralia is
Page 38 and 39: Section 1.3The grey 90sThe heady ex
Page 40 and 41: Section 1.3Taylor’s stony rebutta
Page 42 and 43: Section 1.3Figure 1The Benhamite Op
Page 44 and 45: Section 1.3In mathematical terms, t
Page 46 and 47: Section 1.3characterisation of the
Page 48 and 49: Section 1.3ConclusionA retrospectiv
Page 50 and 51: Section 2.0Population futures2.1 Fo
Page 52 and 53: Section 2.1Conventional population
Page 54 and 55: Section 2.1It is more useful for go
Page 56 and 57:
Section 2.1Forecasting of births, w
Page 58 and 59:
Section 2.1Future net overseas migr
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Section 2.13). This had a lot to do
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Section 2.2IntroductionIn late Sept
Page 64 and 65:
Section 2.2Figure 1The migrant cont
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Section 2.2The visa and residency s
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Section 2.2sponsorship, subject to
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Section 2.2Figure 3Historical and p
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Section 2.2The views in this chapte
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Section 2.3IntroductionThe Australi
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Section 2.3Figure 3Australia: Distr
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Section 2.3Table 2Australia: Popula
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Section 2.3Table 4Views of Australi
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Section 2.3Table 5Australian States
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Section 2.3A number of hypotheses h
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Section 2.3Table 8Australia: Distri
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Section 2.3Table 10Non-Metropolitan
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Section 2.3Policy issuesThe configu
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Section 2.3Climate change is likely
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Section 2.3ConclusionAny realistic
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Section 2.340 Swan, W., 2010.Austra
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Section 2.4IntroductionThe Australi
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Section 2.4At present there is a hi
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Section 2.4innovation initiatives w
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Section 2.4Endnotes1 Henry, K 2009,
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Section 2.5IntroductionAustralia is
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Section 2.5else. Even with a broad
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Section 2.5commercially viable - th
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Section 2.5A vast country like Aust
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Section 3.0Society and the individu
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Section 3.1Extent of public opinion
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Section 3.1category immigrant/forei
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Section 3.1The Environics Research
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Section 3.1Per cent100908070Figure
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Section 3.1A number of surveys soug
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Section 3.1Table 8Percentage who an
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Section 3.1A more precise indicatio
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Section 3.1The strongest predictor
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Section 3.1Endnotes1. There is also
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3.2Social inclusion and multicultur
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Section 3.2a broader definition of
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Section 3.2Figure 1Estimated povert
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Section 3.2Table 2Visa Type of Sett
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Section 3.2Table 5First Generation
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Section 3.2Table 6Australia: First
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Section 3.2Improving outcomes for v
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Section 3.2increasing diversity of
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3.3Linkages between education and p
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Section 3.3Education and productivi
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Section 3.3In the past decade, prod
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Section 3.3succeed in education or
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Section 3.3case, funding also could
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Section 3.3Endnotes1 IGR 2010: Chal
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3.4Healthcare delivery for our agei
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Section 3.4• Private medical serv
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Section 3.4the whole spectrum of in
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Section 3.45. Experiences, pathways
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Section 3.4Stratification of patien
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Section 3.4Other steps include impr
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Section 3.438 National Health Refor
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4.1The economic effects ofpopulatio
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Section 4.1population growth can ex
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Section 4.1In theory, the answer pa
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Section 4.1Kirchner concedes that t
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Section 4.1Endnotes1. Productivity
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4.2Urban infrastructure and land us
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Section 4.2bearing the fixed costs
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Section 4.2Figure 1Indicative dwell
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Section 4.2Taking the electricity,
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Section 4.2Promoting better land us
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Section 4.2preferences to homeowner
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Section 4.2in any Australian urban
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Section 4.2Endnotes1 Productivity C
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4.3Water security:Water for the far
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Section 4.3Water trading enables us
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Section 4.3cent of water entitlemen
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Section 4.3were either the full eco
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Section 4.3Strategic opportunitiesA
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4.4Critiquing governmentregional de
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Section 4.4However, there is often
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Section 4.4Potential policy interve
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Section 4.4Unfortunately, advocacy
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Section 4.4contribute substantially
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Section 4.418 Department of Educati
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5.1The future of population policyG
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Section 5.1a million fewer women in
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Section 5.1For the present, ongoing
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Section 5.1The second worry is that
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Section 5.1The now significantly de
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