A Greater Australia: Population, policies and governance - CEDA

Section 2.5A vast country like Australia, where population pressures are lower than places likeEurope and Asia (even at 35.9 million people, Australia’s density will only be 4.7 peopleper km 2 ), has more leeway than many nations in terms of population growth. YetAustralia is also the driest inhabited continent on Earth with the least fertile soils 42 , andis forecast to be heavily impacted by climate change. For instance, the Garnaut ClimateChange Review states:“By mid-century, there would be major declines in agricultural production acrossmuch of the country. Irrigated agriculture in the Murray-Darling Basin would be likelyto lose half of its annual output. This would lead to changes in our capacity to exportfood and a growing reliance on food imports, with associated shifts from exportparity to import parity pricing.” 43Figure 1, also taken from the Garnaut review, summarises some of the major projectedimpacts of unmitigated global warming on Australia by 2100. Clearly, as we face acombination of a larger human population and severe climate change impacts, challengingtimes lie ahead.A large but sustainable Australian population will need to rely heavily on a mix of innovation,efficiency, and techno-fixes. As discussed above, this should include adoption ofadvanced nuclear power systems (based on the full recycling of spent nuclear fuel),plasma-arch torches to treat municipal garbage (providing a syngas fuel and recoveringmetals from the waste stream) 44 , and efficient desalination techniques based on cleanenergy, to alleviate water stress. Obviously we must proceed with caution, but as AlvinWeinberg pointed out:“Technological fixes have unforeseen and deleterious side effects – but so do socialfixes, especially revolutions”. 45Endnotes1 Australia Economy, in 2011 CIA World Factbook: http://www.theodora.com/wfbcurrent/australia/australia_economy.html2 Carbon dioxide emissions (CO2), thousand metric tons of CO2 (CDIAC): http://mdgs.un.org/unsd/mdg/SeriesDetail.aspx?srid=749&crid=3 Australian Bureau of statistics population clock: http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/0/1647509ef7e25faaca2568a900154b63?OpenDocument4 Australia to 2050: Future Challenges. The 2010 Intergenerational Report. http://www.treasury.gov.au/igr/igr2010/Overview/pdf/IGR_2010_Overview.pdf5 http://en.proverbia.net/citasautor.asp?autor=158606 World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision: http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Excel-Data/population.htm7 Record High 2010 Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Fossil-Fuel Combustion and Cement Manufacture: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/perlim_2009_2010_estimates.html8 Australia’s Low Pollution Future, Chapter 3: http://www.treasury.gov.au/lowpollutionfuture/report/html/03_Chapter3.asp9 CDIAC: Global, Regional, and National Fossil-Fuel CO2 Emissions: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/overview_2008.html10 Solomon et al. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA: http://www.pnas.org/content/106/6/170411 IPCC Special Report Emissions Scenarios: http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/special-reports/spm/sres-en.pdf12 Climate Change 2007: Working Group I: The Physical Science Basis, Projections of Future Changes in Climate: http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/spmsspm-projections-of.html13 Betts et al. Philos. Trans. Roy. Soc. A. 369, 67–84: http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/369/1934/67.full.pdf (free PDF)14 Rogelj et al. Nature Climate Change 1, 413–418: http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v1/n8/full/nclimate1258.html (free online)15 The Garnaut Climate Change Review 2008, Chapter 6: Climate change impacts on Australia: http://www.garnautreview.org.au/chp6.htm16 IPCC Special Report 2011: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX): http://ipcc-wg2.gov/SREX/17 Tipping points in the Earth system: http://climatelab.org/Tipping_Points18 Brook, B.W. 2008. Will global warming cause a mass extinction event? http://bravenewclimate.com/2008/08/14/will-global-warmingcause-a-mass-extinction-event/19 Fact sheet: Australia’s emissions projections 2010: http://www.climatechange.gov.au/en/publications/projections/australias-emissionsprojections/factsheet-emissions-projections.aspx20 IbidA Greater Australia: Population, Policies and Governance111