A Greater Australia: Population, policies and governance - CEDA

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Section 2.2The views in this chapter are to be attributed to the authors, and not to their employersor the Australian Government.Endnotes1 McCrindle Research 2009, ‘Australia Hits 22 Million on 1 October 2009’, accessed at http://www.mccrindle.com.au on 17 February2012. McCrindle gazumped the Australian Bureau of Statistics whose population clock – which projects the current population – didnot click over to 22 million until some weeks later. It transpires McCrindle was the more accurate forecaster: it was subsequently shownthat the official population count went past 22 million sometime around the middle of August 2009.2 Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) 2008, Australian Historical Population Statistics 2008, Cat. No. 3105.0.65.0013 Widmaier, S and Dumont, J.C 2011, ‘Are Recent Immigrants Different? A New Profile of Immigrants in the OECD’, OECD Social,Employment and Migration Papers, No. 126, OECD, Paris.4 Blainey, G 2001, This Land is All Horizons, Boyer Lectures 2001, ABC Books, Sydney. The title for the lecture came from a ‘booster’book of the same name by E J Brady, published in 1918.5 Australian Dictionary of Biography, accessed from http://adb.anu.edu.au/biography/hughes-william-morris-billy-6761 on 17 February2012.6 Statistics in this paragraph come from ABS 2008, op cit.7 Australia has a range of migration programs. What is known as the Migration Program refers to the granting of permanent residencevisas for skilled and family migrants within the annual planning levels set by the Australian government. There has been, since thelate 1970s a separate Humanitarian Program that grants permanent residence visas to persons requiring protection under the 1951Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees. The program also offers resettlement to people outside Australia in great humanitarianneed.8 Statistics in this paragraph come from ABS 2011, Migration 2009–10, Cat. No. 3412.0.9 Readers seeking more detail on migration flows and visa grants are referred to Population Flows: Immigration Aspects, publishedannually by the Department of Immigration and Citizenship.10 Estimated by taking the average of visas granted in the 2008–09 and 2009–10 program years.11 Leaving aside movements of Australian citizens and residents and New Zealand citizens, NOM arrivals (A) comprise temporary arrivals(TI) plus arrivals of persons outside Australia granted permanent residence (EP).If all temporary visas expire in the next time period, NOM departures (D) comprise temporary arrivals in the previous time period (TI t–1)less those granted permanent residence (IP).The size of the Migration Program is given by EP + IP so long as all visa places are taken up in the time period.NOM t= A t– D t= (TI t+ EP t) – (TI t–1– IP t), which can be re-arranged as (TI t– TI t–1) + (EP t+ IP t)If TI t= TI t–1, then the first term is zero and NOM is equal to the size of the Migration Program.This mathematical relationship can be violated on two grounds: first, if there is continued year-on-year growth in temporary visa grantnumbers then NOM will exceed the Migration Program each year by the difference between TI tand TI t – 1; and, second, that temporaryvisa holders are able to remain in Australia without ever becoming permanent residents. The historical trend is that the net movement ofAustralian residents and citizens and New Zealand citizens, who all have free right of entry and departure, is a small, positive contributorto NOM.12 On the economics of migration flows see, for example: Beine M, Docquier F and Ozden C 2011, ‘Diasporas’, Journal of DevelopmentEconomics, vol. 95, no. 1, pp. 30–41; Ortega F and Peri G, ‘The Causes and Effects of International Migrations: Evidence fromOECD Countries 1980–2005’, NBER Working Paper 14833, National Bureau of Economic Research. A more sociological literature iscanvassed in de Haas H 2011, ‘The Determinants of International Migration’ DEMIG Working Paper 2, International Migration Institute,University of Oxford.13 United Nations World Tourism Organisation 2011, World Tourism Barometer, accessed from http://mkt.unwto.org/en/barometer on 17February 2012.14 Papademetriou D, Sommerville W and Tanaka H 2008, ‘Hybrid Immigrant-Selection Systems: the Next Generation of Economic MigrationSchemes’, in Talent, Competitiveness and Migration, Transatlantic Council on Migration.15 Cangiano A 2011, ‘Demographic Objectives in Migration Policy-Making’, Policy Primer series, Migration Observatory, University ofOxford.16 Office for National Statistics 2011, Long-term International Migration, November 2010.17 Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development 2011, Education at a Glance 2011, OECD, Paris.18 Phillips J and Spinks H 2009, ‘Boat Arrivals Since 1976’, Background Note, Parliamentary Library, Australian Government, Canberra19 The most recent forecasts are contained in Department of Immigration and Citizenship 2012, The Outlook for Net Overseas Migration,December 2011, DIAC, Canberra. A detailed description of the forecasting method can be found in the outlook for May 2011.20 Treasury 2010, Australia to 2050, the 2010 Intergenerational Report, Australian Government, Canberra.21 The model uses:• The age and gender split of Australians born and overseas born from Migration Australia (Cat 3412.0).• A total fertility rate of 1.921 births sourced from Australian Demographic Statistics (Cat 3101.0). Age specific fertility rates from BirthsAustralia (Cat 3301.0).• Births, deaths, and life expectancy sourced from Australian Demographic Statistics (Cat 3101.0) and Australian Historical PopulationStatistics (Cat 3105.0).• Population by single year of age sourced from Population by Age and Sex, Australian States and Territories (Cat 3201.0).22 Under the medium scenario, the projected population in 2050 is 35.5 million, slightly below the Treasury projection of 35.9 million.A Greater Australia: Population, Policies and Governance71
2.3Population distribution and internal migrationGraeme HugoProfessor Graeme Hugo is an ARC Australian Professorial Fellow,Professor of the Discipline of Geography, Environment and Populationand Director of the Australian Population and Migration Research Centreat the University of Adelaide. Graeme has published over 300 books,scholarly journal articles, chapters, conference papers and reports. In2002 he secured an ARC Federation Fellowship over five years, and in2009 he was awarded an ARC Australian Professorial Fellowship. He ischair of the Demographic Change and Liveability Panel of the Ministry of Sustainability, Environment,Water, Population and Communities and was appointed to the National Housing Supply Councilin 2011.A Greater Australia: Population, Policies and Governance72
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A Greater Australia:Population, pol
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ContentsForeword CEDA Chief Executi
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ForewordIt is with pleasure that I
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IntroductionResponding to the resul
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IntroductionA more dynamic and vita
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IntroductionSustainabilityConcern a
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IntroductionThe new demographics, h
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Section 1.0Historical perspectives1
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Section 1.1IntroductionJapan’s cr
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Section 1.1Figure 1Forecast number
Page 22 and 23: Section 1.1Table 1Defence spending
Page 24 and 25: Section 1.1How much defence is enou
Page 26 and 27: Section 1.1ConclusionA substantial
Page 28 and 29: Section 1.2There has been over a ce
Page 30 and 31: Section 1.2Resource constraints wer
Page 32 and 33: Section 1.2Similarly, in the 1994 H
Page 34 and 35: Section 1.2ReferencesAustralia, Dep
Page 36 and 37: Section 1.3IntroductionAustralia is
Page 38 and 39: Section 1.3The grey 90sThe heady ex
Page 40 and 41: Section 1.3Taylor’s stony rebutta
Page 42 and 43: Section 1.3Figure 1The Benhamite Op
Page 44 and 45: Section 1.3In mathematical terms, t
Page 46 and 47: Section 1.3characterisation of the
Page 48 and 49: Section 1.3ConclusionA retrospectiv
Page 50 and 51: Section 2.0Population futures2.1 Fo
Page 52 and 53: Section 2.1Conventional population
Page 54 and 55: Section 2.1It is more useful for go
Page 56 and 57: Section 2.1Forecasting of births, w
Page 58 and 59: Section 2.1Future net overseas migr
Page 60 and 61: Section 2.13). This had a lot to do
Page 62 and 63: Section 2.2IntroductionIn late Sept
Page 64 and 65: Section 2.2Figure 1The migrant cont
Page 66 and 67: Section 2.2The visa and residency s
Page 68 and 69: Section 2.2sponsorship, subject to
Page 70 and 71: Section 2.2Figure 3Historical and p
Page 74 and 75: Section 2.3IntroductionThe Australi
Page 76 and 77: Section 2.3Figure 3Australia: Distr
Page 78 and 79: Section 2.3Table 2Australia: Popula
Page 80 and 81: Section 2.3Table 4Views of Australi
Page 82 and 83: Section 2.3Table 5Australian States
Page 84 and 85: Section 2.3A number of hypotheses h
Page 86 and 87: Section 2.3Table 8Australia: Distri
Page 88 and 89: Section 2.3Table 10Non-Metropolitan
Page 90 and 91: Section 2.3Policy issuesThe configu
Page 92 and 93: Section 2.3Climate change is likely
Page 94 and 95: Section 2.3ConclusionAny realistic
Page 96 and 97: Section 2.340 Swan, W., 2010.Austra
Page 98 and 99: Section 2.4IntroductionThe Australi
Page 100 and 101: Section 2.4At present there is a hi
Page 102 and 103: Section 2.4innovation initiatives w
Page 104 and 105: Section 2.4Endnotes1 Henry, K 2009,
Page 106 and 107: Section 2.5IntroductionAustralia is
Page 108 and 109: Section 2.5else. Even with a broad
Page 110 and 111: Section 2.5commercially viable - th
Page 112 and 113: Section 2.5A vast country like Aust
Page 114 and 115: Section 3.0Society and the individu
Page 116 and 117: Section 3.1Extent of public opinion
Page 119 and 120: Section 3.1category immigrant/forei
Page 121 and 122: Section 3.1The Environics Research
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Section 3.1Per cent100908070Figure
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Section 3.1A number of surveys soug
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Section 3.1Table 8Percentage who an
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Section 3.1A more precise indicatio
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Section 3.1The strongest predictor
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Section 3.1Endnotes1. There is also
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3.2Social inclusion and multicultur
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Section 3.2a broader definition of
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Section 3.2Figure 1Estimated povert
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Section 3.2Table 2Visa Type of Sett
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Section 3.2Table 5First Generation
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Section 3.2Table 6Australia: First
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Section 3.2Improving outcomes for v
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Section 3.2increasing diversity of
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3.3Linkages between education and p
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Section 3.3Education and productivi
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Section 3.3In the past decade, prod
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Section 3.3succeed in education or
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Section 3.3case, funding also could
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Section 3.3Endnotes1 IGR 2010: Chal
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3.4Healthcare delivery for our agei
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Section 3.4• Private medical serv
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Section 3.4the whole spectrum of in
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Section 3.45. Experiences, pathways
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Section 3.4Stratification of patien
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Section 3.4Other steps include impr
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Section 3.438 National Health Refor
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4.1The economic effects ofpopulatio
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Section 4.1population growth can ex
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Section 4.1In theory, the answer pa
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Section 4.1Kirchner concedes that t
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Section 4.1Endnotes1. Productivity
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4.2Urban infrastructure and land us
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Section 4.2bearing the fixed costs
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Section 4.2Figure 1Indicative dwell
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Section 4.2Taking the electricity,
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Section 4.2Promoting better land us
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Section 4.2preferences to homeowner
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Section 4.2in any Australian urban
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Section 4.2Endnotes1 Productivity C
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4.3Water security:Water for the far
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Section 4.3Water trading enables us
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Section 4.3cent of water entitlemen
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Section 4.3were either the full eco
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Section 4.3Strategic opportunitiesA
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4.4Critiquing governmentregional de
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Section 4.4However, there is often
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Section 4.4Potential policy interve
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Section 4.4Unfortunately, advocacy
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Section 4.4contribute substantially
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Section 4.418 Department of Educati
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5.1The future of population policyG
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Section 5.1a million fewer women in
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Section 5.1For the present, ongoing
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Section 5.1The second worry is that
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Section 5.1The now significantly de
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