Section 4.2Figure 2Average annual CPI growth in <strong>Australia</strong>1816Electricity14Water <strong>and</strong> sewerage1210Gas & other fuels864Total CPI (all groups)202005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011Source: <strong>Australia</strong>n Bureau of Statistics, 6401.0, Dec-2011size <strong>and</strong> periodicity, the absence of alternatives, <strong>and</strong> the extreme consequences ofdisconnection – making the pain associated with such sustained, on-going increasesall the more acute.High consumer sensitivity has also attached to the transport system, though withaccess largely either not priced (as for most roads) or heavily subsidised (as with publictransport), the form the problems take differs. Rather than involving direct monetaryoutlays, the consumer cost comes mainly in the form of degradation in service quality,most notably congestion. And the perception has been that these costs have increased:on the roads, with somewhat slower traffic speeds at peak <strong>and</strong> the peaks themselveslasting longer; <strong>and</strong> on public transport, with greater crowding <strong>and</strong> some reduction inservice availability.While estimates of these costs are controversial, it is difficult to deny that there areindeed areas of severe congestion in the <strong>Australia</strong>n transport system. For example,Sydney’s Eastern Distributor (the M1), the M5 East Motorway <strong>and</strong> the Concord toLapstone section of the Western Distributor (the M4), are all congested 13 or morehours a day. Moreover, most of the main Sydney links – the harbour crossings, the M5<strong>and</strong> the M5 East, Southern Cross Drive <strong>and</strong> the M7 – average over 20,000 vehicles perlane daily, which is close to or exceeds theoretical carrying limits, <strong>and</strong> other major links(such as the Eastern Distributor, the M2 <strong>and</strong> the M4) are not far behind. Yet projections(again, controversial) are that traffic on the M5 will double by 2031, while traffic generallyin the Sydney area will rise by around 80 per cent. Similar accounts could be givenfor at least Brisbane <strong>and</strong> Melbourne, with the latter also suffering congestion issues onparts of its public transport network.There is, as a result, an impression that here too the “squeezing of the lemon” hasreached its limits, or will soon do so: with consequent pressures for increased outlays.The obvious question this raises is the extent to which these scarce resources – be it ofutility infrastructure or of transport links – have been provided <strong>and</strong> used efficiently. Butputting that efficiency question aside for a moment, what is nonetheless clear is that ifthe intention was to avoid increased outlays by reshaping settlement patterns, that goalhas not been achieved or at least, has only been achieved to a modest extent.A <strong>Greater</strong> <strong>Australia</strong>: <strong>Population</strong>, Policies <strong>and</strong> Governance193
Section 4.2Promoting better l<strong>and</strong> useThis brings me to the l<strong>and</strong> use aspect of the urban <strong>policies</strong> pursued in recent years. Asnoted above, these have sought to contain the costs of population growth by promotingwhat is generally referred to as “densification” through a combination of restrictionson the size of the urban area, the availability of l<strong>and</strong> at or on the city fringe relative to thescope for in fill development (such as the construction of units in existing suburbs), <strong>and</strong>the extent of charges imposed on developers as contributions to infrastructure costs.While these measures have been implemented in different ways in the various jurisdictions,the common theme has been a desire to reduce the urban sprawl that hasbeen the most pronounced <strong>and</strong> persistent feature of <strong>Australia</strong>’s settlement pattern.Moreover, in doing so, State Governments have almost invariably clashed with localcommunities, not merely by imposing zoning <strong>and</strong> l<strong>and</strong> use decisions that conflict withthose taken by local bodies but also by transferring powers over l<strong>and</strong> use away fromelected local bodies to ministers or to entities appointed by ministers <strong>and</strong>, in severalstates, by narrowing or even eliminating appeals against planning decisions.While any such statement is obviously a rather gr<strong>and</strong> generalisation, it seems fair tosay that as planners <strong>and</strong> state governments became more attached to denser development,local communities became increasingly opposed to it. And although localcouncils have often been able to hold up densification, they have rarely been able toprevent it altogether, as state governments typically have ultimate control. In contrast,state governments have had, <strong>and</strong> exercised, the ability to prevent development on theurban fringe, or failing that, to make locating there less attractive by limiting infrastructureprovision in fringe areas. The result has been a tug of war over l<strong>and</strong> release <strong>and</strong>zoning that raises obvious questions about efficiency.From an efficiency perspective, there is nothing inherently undesirable about “sprawl”,i.e extensive l<strong>and</strong> settlement. After all, l<strong>and</strong> is a normal good, <strong>and</strong> hence dem<strong>and</strong> for itwill rise with income. So long as households value extending the urban fringe at morethan its costs, the mere fact that those extensions involve increases in social overheadcapital <strong>and</strong> in travel times should be neither here nor there.Similar considerations apply to local decisions about housing density: if local residentsprefer a dispersed settlement pattern, with large, uniform, lots, to a denser patterninterspersed with small plots or multi-story dwellings, there is nothing inherently undesirableabout those preferences. Indeed, so long as the local residents, in taking thedecision to impose dispersed settlement (or oppose densification), face both the costs<strong>and</strong> the benefits to which it will give rise (an assumption to which I shall return), thatdecision is likely to be more efficient than one taken centrally.Nor is it surprising that local residents might become more restrictive of potentiallyundesirable l<strong>and</strong> uses over time. Amenity is not only a superior good but also a localpublic good, <strong>and</strong> hence its dem<strong>and</strong> should be summed vertically. As the population inan area rises, the value placed on a given level of amenity will rise, but the gain to theindividual undesirable l<strong>and</strong> user (say, a polluter or other generator of negative externalities)from locating in the area may not. As a result, the efficient degree of restrictivenessis likely to increase as population <strong>and</strong> income rises.But none of this denies that in practice, there may be, <strong>and</strong> likely are, factors that inducean inefficiently high level of urban dispersion. Four such factors st<strong>and</strong> out.The first, <strong>and</strong> surely largest, is the tax system, <strong>and</strong> notably the tax preference toowner-occupied housing. That preference includes the exemption from income <strong>and</strong>consumption taxes of imputed rent; the exemption of owner-occupied housing fromcapital gains tax <strong>and</strong> from the means <strong>and</strong> assets tests for social security payments,A <strong>Greater</strong> <strong>Australia</strong>: <strong>Population</strong>, Policies <strong>and</strong> Governance194
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A Greater Australia:Population, pol
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ContentsForeword CEDA Chief Executi
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ForewordIt is with pleasure that I
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IntroductionResponding to the resul
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IntroductionA more dynamic and vita
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IntroductionSustainabilityConcern a
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IntroductionThe new demographics, h
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Section 1.0Historical perspectives1
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Section 1.1IntroductionJapan’s cr
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Section 1.1Figure 1Forecast number
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Section 1.1Table 1Defence spending
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Section 1.1How much defence is enou
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Section 1.1ConclusionA substantial
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Section 1.2There has been over a ce
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Section 1.2Resource constraints wer
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Section 1.2Similarly, in the 1994 H
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Section 1.2ReferencesAustralia, Dep
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Section 1.3IntroductionAustralia is
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Section 1.3The grey 90sThe heady ex
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Section 1.3Taylor’s stony rebutta
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Section 1.3Figure 1The Benhamite Op
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Section 1.3In mathematical terms, t
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Section 1.3characterisation of the
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Section 1.3ConclusionA retrospectiv
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Section 2.0Population futures2.1 Fo
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Section 2.1Conventional population
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Section 2.1It is more useful for go
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Section 2.1Forecasting of births, w
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Section 2.1Future net overseas migr
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Section 2.13). This had a lot to do
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Section 2.2IntroductionIn late Sept
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Section 2.2Figure 1The migrant cont
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Section 2.2The visa and residency s
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Section 2.2sponsorship, subject to
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Section 2.2Figure 3Historical and p
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Section 2.2The views in this chapte
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Section 2.3IntroductionThe Australi
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Section 2.3Figure 3Australia: Distr
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Section 2.3Table 2Australia: Popula
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Section 2.3Table 4Views of Australi
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Section 2.3Table 5Australian States
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Section 2.3A number of hypotheses h
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Section 2.3Table 8Australia: Distri
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Section 2.3Table 10Non-Metropolitan
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Section 2.3Policy issuesThe configu
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Section 2.3Climate change is likely
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Section 2.3ConclusionAny realistic
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Section 2.340 Swan, W., 2010.Austra
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Section 2.4IntroductionThe Australi
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Section 2.4At present there is a hi
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Section 2.4innovation initiatives w
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Section 2.4Endnotes1 Henry, K 2009,
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Section 2.5IntroductionAustralia is
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Section 2.5else. Even with a broad
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Section 2.5commercially viable - th
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Section 2.5A vast country like Aust
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Section 3.0Society and the individu
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Section 3.1Extent of public opinion
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Section 3.1category immigrant/forei
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Section 3.1The Environics Research
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Section 3.1Per cent100908070Figure
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Section 3.1A number of surveys soug
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Section 3.1Table 8Percentage who an
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Section 3.1A more precise indicatio
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Section 3.1The strongest predictor
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Section 3.1Endnotes1. There is also
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3.2Social inclusion and multicultur
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Section 3.2a broader definition of
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Section 3.2Figure 1Estimated povert
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Section 3.2Table 2Visa Type of Sett
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