A Greater Australia: Population, policies and governance - CEDA

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Section 1.1ConclusionA substantial case for accelerating the growth of Australia’s population cannot be builton the basis of defence considerations; and certainly not on that basis alone. In thedecades ahead, we will have more than enough people to meet the manpower needs ofour defence force many times over. And while a larger population would make defencemore affordable by spreading the cost over a larger number of taxpayers, this wouldhave to be balanced against the other costs and benefits of a larger population.Ultimately, the case for a larger population would have to be made on economicgrounds, with the affordability of defence being but one consideration. Of course, theimportance of defence in such an analysis increases with the scale of our defenceeffort; the more we spend on defence, the greater the opportunity cost. But as we’veseen, the argument for a bolstering our defence effort beyond current plans is weak.A greater investment in defence would increase our costs without a commensurateimprovement to our security.Endnotes1 Michele Langfield, More People Initiative: Immigration to Australia, 1901–39, National Archives of Australia, 1999, available online.2 Lord Northcote, “Lord Northcote on Australia” The Brisbane Courier, 22 January 1909, p. 4.3 T.B. Millar, Australia in War and Peace, ANU Press, 1978, p. 380.4 Arthur Calwell, Commonwealth Parliamentary Debate, Hansard, 22 November 1946, Commonwealth of Australia.5 James Vernon, Vernon Report (Committee of Economic Inquiry), Commonwealth of Australia, 1965, p. 146.6 ABC News, “Rudd welcomes ‘Big Australia’”, ABC online, 23 October 2009.7 Greg Sheridan, “Populate or perish still true”, The Australian, 8 April 2010; Paul Cleary, “Big country is a defence priority”, TheAustralian, 14 August 2010.8 Chris Barrie, “We need to debate conscription”, The Age, 3 October 2009.9 Australian Bureau of Statistics, Series 6202.0, Labour Force, Australia, May 201110 Department of Defence, Defence Annual Report 2009–10,Commonwelath of Australia, 2010, p. 34411 Department of Defence, Australian Defence Force Census, Commonwealth of Australia, 2007.12 Treasury, Australia to 2050: future challenges, (Intergenerational Report 2010), Commonwealth of Australia, 2010, p. 68.13 Treasury, Australia to 2050: future challenges, p. 14.14 Ross Babbage, Australia’s Strategic Edge to 2030, Kokoda Paper No. 15, February 2011.15 Hugh White, Power Shift: Australia’s Future between Washington and Beijing, Quarterly Essay, September 2010.16 International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2011.17 Mark Thomson, Trends in US defence spending: implications for Australia, Australian Strategic Policy Institute, 2010.18 Goldman Sachs Global Economic Group, BRICs and Beyond, Goldman Sachs, 2007, p. 149.19 Mark Thomson, The Cost of Defence 2011–12, Australian Strategic Policy Institute, 2011, p. 144.20 Angus Maddison, Statistics on World Population, GDP and Per Capita GDP, 1–2008 AD, University of Groningen, 2010.21 International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2011.22 Andrew Davies and Andrew Rothe, Theory and practice – a comparative look at China’s new defence White Paper, Australian StrategicPolicy Institute, June 2011.23 Andrew Davies and Mark Thomson, Known unknowns: Uncertainty about the future of the Asia-Pacific, Australian Strategic PolicyInstitute, October 2010.24 US Department of Defence, Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2010, available online.25 PwC www.pwc.com/world2050A Greater Australia: Population, Policies and Governance25
1.2A century of debate about populationand the environment: Key issuesAlaric MaudeAlaric Maude is an Associate Professor of Geography in the School of theEnvironment at Flinders University. He has taught and researched regionaldevelopment and population issues for several decades, in Australia, Malaysia,Tonga and Indonesia, and is a co-author of Developing Australia’s Regions(2003). He has also taught a masters topic on sustainable environmentalmanagement for over a decade. Since retirement in 2004 he has been involvedin a variety of research and consultancy projects, one of them on theenvironmental implications of immigration into Australia for the Department of Immigration andCitizenship. This included an historical review of the population-environment debate in Australia, whichhas been extensively rewritten for his chapter in this publication.A Greater Australia: Population, Policies and Governance26
Page 2 and 3: A Greater Australia:Population, pol
Page 4 and 5: ContentsForeword CEDA Chief Executi
Page 6 and 7: ForewordIt is with pleasure that I
Page 8 and 9: IntroductionResponding to the resul
Page 10 and 11: IntroductionA more dynamic and vita
Page 12 and 13: IntroductionSustainabilityConcern a
Page 14 and 15: IntroductionThe new demographics, h
Page 16 and 17: Section 1.0Historical perspectives1
Page 18 and 19: Section 1.1IntroductionJapan’s cr
Page 20 and 21: Section 1.1Figure 1Forecast number
Page 22 and 23: Section 1.1Table 1Defence spending
Page 24 and 25: Section 1.1How much defence is enou
Page 28 and 29: Section 1.2There has been over a ce
Page 30 and 31: Section 1.2Resource constraints wer
Page 32 and 33: Section 1.2Similarly, in the 1994 H
Page 34 and 35: Section 1.2ReferencesAustralia, Dep
Page 36 and 37: Section 1.3IntroductionAustralia is
Page 38 and 39: Section 1.3The grey 90sThe heady ex
Page 40 and 41: Section 1.3Taylor’s stony rebutta
Page 42 and 43: Section 1.3Figure 1The Benhamite Op
Page 44 and 45: Section 1.3In mathematical terms, t
Page 46 and 47: Section 1.3characterisation of the
Page 48 and 49: Section 1.3ConclusionA retrospectiv
Page 50 and 51: Section 2.0Population futures2.1 Fo
Page 52 and 53: Section 2.1Conventional population
Page 54 and 55: Section 2.1It is more useful for go
Page 56 and 57: Section 2.1Forecasting of births, w
Page 58 and 59: Section 2.1Future net overseas migr
Page 60 and 61: Section 2.13). This had a lot to do
Page 62 and 63: Section 2.2IntroductionIn late Sept
Page 64 and 65: Section 2.2Figure 1The migrant cont
Page 66 and 67: Section 2.2The visa and residency s
Page 68 and 69: Section 2.2sponsorship, subject to
Page 70 and 71: Section 2.2Figure 3Historical and p
Page 72 and 73: Section 2.2The views in this chapte
Page 74 and 75: Section 2.3IntroductionThe Australi
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Section 2.3Figure 3Australia: Distr
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Section 2.3Table 2Australia: Popula
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Section 2.3Table 4Views of Australi
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Section 2.3Table 5Australian States
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Section 2.3A number of hypotheses h
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Section 2.3Table 8Australia: Distri
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Section 2.3Table 10Non-Metropolitan
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Section 2.3Policy issuesThe configu
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Section 2.3Climate change is likely
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Section 2.3ConclusionAny realistic
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Section 2.340 Swan, W., 2010.Austra
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Section 2.4IntroductionThe Australi
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Section 2.4At present there is a hi
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Section 2.4innovation initiatives w
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Section 2.4Endnotes1 Henry, K 2009,
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Section 2.5IntroductionAustralia is
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Section 2.5else. Even with a broad
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Section 2.5commercially viable - th
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Section 2.5A vast country like Aust
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Section 3.0Society and the individu
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Section 3.1Extent of public opinion
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Section 3.1category immigrant/forei
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Section 3.1The Environics Research
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Section 3.1Per cent100908070Figure
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Section 3.1A number of surveys soug
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Section 3.1Table 8Percentage who an
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Section 3.1A more precise indicatio
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Section 3.1The strongest predictor
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Section 3.1Endnotes1. There is also
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3.2Social inclusion and multicultur
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Section 3.2a broader definition of
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Section 3.2Figure 1Estimated povert
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Section 3.2Table 2Visa Type of Sett
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Section 3.2Table 5First Generation
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Section 3.2Table 6Australia: First
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Section 3.2Improving outcomes for v
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Section 3.2increasing diversity of
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3.3Linkages between education and p
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Section 3.3Education and productivi
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Section 3.3In the past decade, prod
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Section 3.3succeed in education or
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Section 3.3case, funding also could
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Section 3.3Endnotes1 IGR 2010: Chal
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3.4Healthcare delivery for our agei
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Section 3.4• Private medical serv
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Section 3.4the whole spectrum of in
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Section 3.45. Experiences, pathways
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Section 3.4Stratification of patien
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Section 3.4Other steps include impr
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Section 3.438 National Health Refor
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4.1The economic effects ofpopulatio
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Section 4.1population growth can ex
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Section 4.1In theory, the answer pa
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Section 4.1Kirchner concedes that t
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Section 4.1Endnotes1. Productivity
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4.2Urban infrastructure and land us
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Section 4.2bearing the fixed costs
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Section 4.2Figure 1Indicative dwell
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Section 4.2Taking the electricity,
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Section 4.2Promoting better land us
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Section 4.2preferences to homeowner
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Section 4.2in any Australian urban
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Section 4.2Endnotes1 Productivity C
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4.3Water security:Water for the far
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Section 4.3Water trading enables us
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Section 4.3cent of water entitlemen
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Section 4.3were either the full eco
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Section 4.3Strategic opportunitiesA
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4.4Critiquing governmentregional de
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Section 4.4However, there is often
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Section 4.4Potential policy interve
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Section 4.4Unfortunately, advocacy
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Section 4.4contribute substantially
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Section 4.418 Department of Educati
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5.1The future of population policyG
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Section 5.1a million fewer women in
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Section 5.1For the present, ongoing
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Section 5.1The second worry is that
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Section 5.1The now significantly de
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