A Greater Australia: Population, policies and governance - CEDA

More documents

Recommendations

Info

Section 2.2Figure 1The migrant contribution to population growth, 1953–2011 (per cent)%1.61.4Migration program1.21.0Net overseas migration0.80.60.40.20.0195319551957195919611963196519671969197119731975197719791981198319851987198919911993199519971999200120032005200720092011Source: Department of Immigration and Citizenship and Australian Bureau of Statistics. The net overseas migration data for 2011 are from DIAC forecasts.Over the decade ending 2010–11, the Migration Program averaged 139,400 per year,and in 2011–12 is expected to reach a record high in volume terms, double the size ofthe program a decade earlier. The net migration intake peaked in 2009 and is now backin alignment with the Migration Program.The legacy of these migration flows is a transformed population, one that would beclose to unimaginable to an Australian from its post-World War II starting point. For astart, it is a population that is three times larger. Whereas migrants made up one in 10of the population in 1947, by 2010 it was approaching three in 10. Of the six millionpeople in Australia who had been born overseas, almost four million had been born ina country where English was not the main language. And, whereas the United Kingdomand New Zealand have continued to be major sending countries, they now jostle forfirst place in different visa categories among migrants from China and India.Migration flows and the population countFor clarity, it is worth spelling out the interaction between migration flows and populationnumbers. 9The concept of who counts into the population is a political and social construct, oftencontested. In Australia, the concept adopted for use in official statistics is personswho are “usually resident” in Australia. What constitutes usually resident has evolvedover time. The present definition is that persons arriving in Australia add to the populationcount if they spend at least 12 months in a 16 month window living in Australia.Conversely, those who leave Australia and are away for at least 12 months in a 16month window are subtracted from the population count.The 12-in-16 month rule means the vast bulk of the almost 30 million border crossingsper year have no bearing on population numbers. It also means that people who arenot permanent residents of Australia can be counted as additions to the population, solong as they satisfy the residency rule. Persons who have counted into the populationremain in it even if they leave Australia – however many times – so long as their timeout of Australia adds up to fewer than four months within a 16 month window. Theoperation of this rule means that most international students doing vocational or higherA Greater Australia: Population, Policies and Governance63
Section 2.2Table 1Visa and residency status of NOM arrivals and departures,year ending December 2009CategoryArrivals(000s)Departures(000s)NOM(000s)DescriptionPermanent– Skilled88.541.55.93.582.638.0Persons holding a permanentresident visa granted underthe Migration or– Family 35.0 2.4 32.6Humanitarian Programs.Planning numbers are set– Humanitarian and otherannually.12.0 0.0 11.9permanentTemporary– Students238.8138.692.236.5146.6102.1Persons holding a temporaryresident or visitor visa.Numbers of these visas are– Skilled workers 30.7 14.9 15.8generally uncapped.– Working holiday makers 33.1 12.4 20.7– Visitors 36.3 18.9 17.4– Other temporary 0.2 9.4 –9.3Citizens– Australia119.839.199.318.420.520.8Citizens of both countrieshave the right to live andwork in Australia.– New Zealand 80.7 81.0 –0.3Other 31.6 34.5 –2.8 Includes returningpermanent residents andother unknown.Total 478.8 231.9 246.9Source: Net Overseas Migration Travellers Characteristics Database, Australian Bureau of Statistics.Note: Visa and residency status is defined at the point of entry or exit.education courses will be included in the population count for at least the duration oftheir course. On the other hand, most working holiday makers depart Australia within ayear and therefore do not add to the population count, nor subtract from it when theyleave.Within this framework, net overseas migration (or NOM) comprises the net gain orloss of population through immigration (or return migration) to Australia and emigrationfrom Australia. Estimates of NOM are obtained from passenger travel cards thattravellers complete when they exit or enter Australia in combination with informationfrom passport control and passenger movement systems. The Australian Bureau ofStatistics publishes official population statistics quarterly. These include the componentsof population change: at a national level this comprises births less deaths, andNOM arrivals less NOM departures.Preliminary estimates of NOM are published with a two quarter lag. They are modelledon patterns of traveller behaviour observed in final NOM data for the correspondingquarter one year earlier. Final estimates of NOM are published with a six quarter lag, toallow sufficient elapsed time to encompass the usually resident rule.Various attributes of NOM arrivals and departures are captured from the passengertravel cards and other administrative systems. This includes visa and residency status.Table 1 shows the visa and residency status of NOM for the year ending December2009, the most recently available final data. It ought to be noted that 2009 was a yearof exceptionally high population growth attributable to migration, for reasons discussedin more detail below. Here remarks are confined to illustrating conceptual issues in thetable.A Greater Australia: Population, Policies and Governance64
Page 2 and 3:
A Greater Australia:Population, pol
Page 4 and 5:
ContentsForeword CEDA Chief Executi
Page 6 and 7:
ForewordIt is with pleasure that I
Page 8 and 9:
IntroductionResponding to the resul
Page 10 and 11:
IntroductionA more dynamic and vita
Page 12 and 13:
IntroductionSustainabilityConcern a
Page 14 and 15: IntroductionThe new demographics, h
Page 16 and 17: Section 1.0Historical perspectives1
Page 18 and 19: Section 1.1IntroductionJapan’s cr
Page 20 and 21: Section 1.1Figure 1Forecast number
Page 22 and 23: Section 1.1Table 1Defence spending
Page 24 and 25: Section 1.1How much defence is enou
Page 26 and 27: Section 1.1ConclusionA substantial
Page 28 and 29: Section 1.2There has been over a ce
Page 30 and 31: Section 1.2Resource constraints wer
Page 32 and 33: Section 1.2Similarly, in the 1994 H
Page 34 and 35: Section 1.2ReferencesAustralia, Dep
Page 36 and 37: Section 1.3IntroductionAustralia is
Page 38 and 39: Section 1.3The grey 90sThe heady ex
Page 40 and 41: Section 1.3Taylor’s stony rebutta
Page 42 and 43: Section 1.3Figure 1The Benhamite Op
Page 44 and 45: Section 1.3In mathematical terms, t
Page 46 and 47: Section 1.3characterisation of the
Page 48 and 49: Section 1.3ConclusionA retrospectiv
Page 50 and 51: Section 2.0Population futures2.1 Fo
Page 52 and 53: Section 2.1Conventional population
Page 54 and 55: Section 2.1It is more useful for go
Page 56 and 57: Section 2.1Forecasting of births, w
Page 58 and 59: Section 2.1Future net overseas migr
Page 60 and 61: Section 2.13). This had a lot to do
Page 62 and 63: Section 2.2IntroductionIn late Sept
Page 66 and 67: Section 2.2The visa and residency s
Page 68 and 69: Section 2.2sponsorship, subject to
Page 70 and 71: Section 2.2Figure 3Historical and p
Page 72 and 73: Section 2.2The views in this chapte
Page 74 and 75: Section 2.3IntroductionThe Australi
Page 76 and 77: Section 2.3Figure 3Australia: Distr
Page 78 and 79: Section 2.3Table 2Australia: Popula
Page 80 and 81: Section 2.3Table 4Views of Australi
Page 82 and 83: Section 2.3Table 5Australian States
Page 84 and 85: Section 2.3A number of hypotheses h
Page 86 and 87: Section 2.3Table 8Australia: Distri
Page 88 and 89: Section 2.3Table 10Non-Metropolitan
Page 90 and 91: Section 2.3Policy issuesThe configu
Page 92 and 93: Section 2.3Climate change is likely
Page 94 and 95: Section 2.3ConclusionAny realistic
Page 96 and 97: Section 2.340 Swan, W., 2010.Austra
Page 98 and 99: Section 2.4IntroductionThe Australi
Page 100 and 101: Section 2.4At present there is a hi
Page 102 and 103: Section 2.4innovation initiatives w
Page 104 and 105: Section 2.4Endnotes1 Henry, K 2009,
Page 106 and 107: Section 2.5IntroductionAustralia is
Page 108 and 109: Section 2.5else. Even with a broad
Page 110 and 111: Section 2.5commercially viable - th
Page 112 and 113: Section 2.5A vast country like Aust
Page 114 and 115:
Section 3.0Society and the individu
Page 116 and 117:
Section 3.1Extent of public opinion
Page 119 and 120:
Section 3.1category immigrant/forei
Page 121 and 122:
Section 3.1The Environics Research
Page 123 and 124:
Section 3.1Per cent100908070Figure
Page 125 and 126:
Section 3.1A number of surveys soug
Page 127 and 128:
Section 3.1Table 8Percentage who an
Page 129 and 130:
Section 3.1A more precise indicatio
Page 131 and 132:
Section 3.1The strongest predictor
Page 133 and 134:
Section 3.1Endnotes1. There is also
Page 135 and 136:
3.2Social inclusion and multicultur
Page 137 and 138:
Section 3.2a broader definition of
Page 139 and 140:
Section 3.2Figure 1Estimated povert
Page 141 and 142:
Section 3.2Table 2Visa Type of Sett
Page 143 and 144:
Section 3.2Table 5First Generation
Page 145 and 146:
Section 3.2Table 6Australia: First
Page 147 and 148:
Section 3.2Improving outcomes for v
Page 149 and 150:
Section 3.2increasing diversity of
Page 151 and 152:
3.3Linkages between education and p
Page 153 and 154:
Section 3.3Education and productivi
Page 155 and 156:
Section 3.3In the past decade, prod
Page 157 and 158:
Section 3.3succeed in education or
Page 159 and 160:
Section 3.3case, funding also could
Page 161 and 162:
Section 3.3Endnotes1 IGR 2010: Chal
Page 163 and 164:
3.4Healthcare delivery for our agei
Page 165 and 166:
Section 3.4• Private medical serv
Page 167 and 168:
Section 3.4the whole spectrum of in
Page 169 and 170:
Section 3.45. Experiences, pathways
Page 171 and 172:
Section 3.4Stratification of patien
Page 173 and 174:
Section 3.4Other steps include impr
Page 175 and 176:
Section 3.438 National Health Refor
Page 177 and 178:
4.1The economic effects ofpopulatio
Page 179 and 180:
Section 4.1population growth can ex
Page 181 and 182:
Section 4.1In theory, the answer pa
Page 183 and 184:
Section 4.1Kirchner concedes that t
Page 185 and 186:
Section 4.1Endnotes1. Productivity
Page 187 and 188:
4.2Urban infrastructure and land us
Page 189 and 190:
Section 4.2bearing the fixed costs
Page 191 and 192:
Section 4.2Figure 1Indicative dwell
Page 193 and 194:
Section 4.2Taking the electricity,
Page 195 and 196:
Section 4.2Promoting better land us
Page 197 and 198:
Section 4.2preferences to homeowner
Page 199 and 200:
Section 4.2in any Australian urban
Page 201 and 202:
Section 4.2Endnotes1 Productivity C
Page 203 and 204:
4.3Water security:Water for the far
Page 205 and 206:
Section 4.3Water trading enables us
Page 207 and 208:
Section 4.3cent of water entitlemen
Page 209 and 210:
Section 4.3were either the full eco
Page 211 and 212:
Section 4.3Strategic opportunitiesA
Page 213 and 214:
4.4Critiquing governmentregional de
Page 215 and 216:
Section 4.4However, there is often
Page 217 and 218:
Section 4.4Potential policy interve
Page 219 and 220:
Section 4.4Unfortunately, advocacy
Page 221 and 222:
Section 4.4contribute substantially
Page 223 and 224:
Section 4.418 Department of Educati
Page 225 and 226:
5.1The future of population policyG
Page 227 and 228:
Section 5.1a million fewer women in
Page 229 and 230:
Section 5.1For the present, ongoing
Page 231 and 232:
Section 5.1The second worry is that
Page 233 and 234:
Section 5.1The now significantly de
show all

A Greater Australia: Population, policies and governance - CEDA

Create successful ePaper yourself

Delete template?

Save as template?