A Greater Australia: Population, policies and governance - CEDA

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Section 2.2Figure 3Historical and projected share of Australians born overseas, 1891 to 2050(per cent)Per cent45403530252015105Historical300 000 NOM180 000 NOM100 000 NOMZero NOM0189118971903190919151921192719331939194519511957196319691975198119871993199920052011201720232029203520412047Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics and Department of Immigration and Citizenship projections.Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that the fall in NOM has now ceased, and theDepartment’s forecasts are for it to gradually increase to around 200,000 persons perannum by 2015.Beyond 2015, the size and mix of NOM arrivals and NOM departures will shape andtransform the population in Australia even more than it has done over the past 60years. This is because the relative importance of natural increase in population growthwill diminish, while that of the net migrant intake will increase.Elsewhere in this volume there are discussions of population projections, which we donot intend to rehash. An important implication from our preceding analysis, however,is that the size of the future migration intake is highly uncertain, as are the varioussub-components. They are, as the econometricians say, stochastic variables. If thatis accepted, it makes long-term population projections like those published by theAustralian Bureau of Statistics, and those included in the 2010 Intergenerational Report,hazardous to use as a basis for population planning. Demographers are increasinglylooking to Bayesian and stochastic approaches to population projections, ones whichassign probabilities to different population outcomes. It may be fruitful to explore thesein Australia (as Peter McDonald suggests, in Chapter 2.1).One useful application of population projections can be to answer “what if” style questions.As the parameters around fertility and mortality rates are far more stable than fornet migration rates, it is possible to answer questions about the future population ofAustralia by supposing there are different average levels of net migration.This approach is adopted to project the size of the overseas-born population in Australiaby 2050 using a standard demographic model. As far as possible the model is designedto be consistent with that used by Treasury in the 2010 Intergenerational Report. 20 Fourdifferent net migration scenarios are modelled, incorporating the latest official data onbirths, fertility rate, deaths, life expectancy and the age-gender composition of NOM. 21Core assumptions are an unchanged total fertility rate of 1.92 births per woman from2011 and continuing upward trends in life expectancy. The four scenarios are a highlevel of NOM (300,000 per annum), a medium level (180,000 per annum), a low level(100,000 per annum) and a no net migration scenario. The assumption of a constantlevel of NOM – rather than, say, a constant rate of NOM to population – follows theapproach taken in the 2010 Intergenerational Report and the medium NOM scenario isthe same as that used in its base case projection. 22 For each scenario the total size ofA Greater Australia: Population, Policies and Governance69
Section 2.2the Australian population is projected for each year through to 2050, and the size of theoverseas-born sub-population within it. The results are shown in Figure 3.Focusing just on the 2050 projections the results show:• For zero NOM the total population is projected to be 25.6 million, around 4.3 millionof whom would be born overseas. This would represent a decline from the currentlevel of 6 million;• For a NOM of 100,000 per year, the overall population rises to over 31 million witharound 8.2 million being born overseas;• With a NOM of 180,000 per annum the total population would reach 35.5 million ofwhom a projected 11.4 million would be overseas-born; and• Finally, a NOM of 300,000 per annum, very high by historical standards, would resultin a projected population of more than 42 million, with over 16 million overseasborn.One way of interpreting Figure 3 is that the number of overseas-born in the populationis almost certain to rise. The endogenous demand for new workers is almost certain toguarantee a level of NOM above the low-level scenario of 100,000 per annum, givenrising aged dependency ratios. If NOM was to be at that level it would roughly ensurethat the share of overseas-born in the population remained constant. In other words,any average value of NOM in excess of that level will result in an increasing share of theAustralian population that is overseas-born.The ability of the existing resident population to absorb and welcome these newmigrants will be a challenge, but our history since post-World War II ought to give usconfidence.ConclusionThis chapter has examined the inter-relationship between migration and population, atopic that often generates more heat than light. We have endeavoured to provide light,and have come up with several conclusions that are important pointers for the futureof Australia.First, Australia is likely to remain a country that attracts and welcomes a high proportionof immigrants. A variety of reasons support this conclusion, including the reception andopportunity Australia provides to migrants, its openness to migration flows, and the pullfactors of rising labour demand as the population ages and cross-border householdformation.Second, the size, mix and character of migration flows are key determinants of whatthe population of Australia might look like by mid-century; and more so than over theprevious half-century. Although the degree of uncertainty around each of them is high,it is likely that the size of the migrant population will rise, as will its share of the totalAustralian population. Our best way of facing the future is to be adaptive and flexible,drawing upon sound knowledge of the near future.Finally, Australia has an enviable record in managing migrant entry and settling newcomers.Our overseas-born population has the lowest unemployment rate amongOECD countries, and the children of migrants do as well as the native born in internationalsecondary assessment tests, whereas they do worse in almost all other OECDcountries. There is no reason to suspect that we won’t be able to maintain this highinternational standing.A Greater Australia: Population, Policies and Governance70
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A Greater Australia:Population, pol
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ContentsForeword CEDA Chief Executi
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ForewordIt is with pleasure that I
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IntroductionResponding to the resul
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IntroductionA more dynamic and vita
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IntroductionSustainabilityConcern a
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IntroductionThe new demographics, h
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Section 1.0Historical perspectives1
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Section 1.1IntroductionJapan’s cr
Page 20 and 21: Section 1.1Figure 1Forecast number
Page 22 and 23: Section 1.1Table 1Defence spending
Page 24 and 25: Section 1.1How much defence is enou
Page 26 and 27: Section 1.1ConclusionA substantial
Page 28 and 29: Section 1.2There has been over a ce
Page 30 and 31: Section 1.2Resource constraints wer
Page 32 and 33: Section 1.2Similarly, in the 1994 H
Page 34 and 35: Section 1.2ReferencesAustralia, Dep
Page 36 and 37: Section 1.3IntroductionAustralia is
Page 38 and 39: Section 1.3The grey 90sThe heady ex
Page 40 and 41: Section 1.3Taylor’s stony rebutta
Page 42 and 43: Section 1.3Figure 1The Benhamite Op
Page 44 and 45: Section 1.3In mathematical terms, t
Page 46 and 47: Section 1.3characterisation of the
Page 48 and 49: Section 1.3ConclusionA retrospectiv
Page 50 and 51: Section 2.0Population futures2.1 Fo
Page 52 and 53: Section 2.1Conventional population
Page 54 and 55: Section 2.1It is more useful for go
Page 56 and 57: Section 2.1Forecasting of births, w
Page 58 and 59: Section 2.1Future net overseas migr
Page 60 and 61: Section 2.13). This had a lot to do
Page 62 and 63: Section 2.2IntroductionIn late Sept
Page 64 and 65: Section 2.2Figure 1The migrant cont
Page 66 and 67: Section 2.2The visa and residency s
Page 68 and 69: Section 2.2sponsorship, subject to
Page 72 and 73: Section 2.2The views in this chapte
Page 74 and 75: Section 2.3IntroductionThe Australi
Page 76 and 77: Section 2.3Figure 3Australia: Distr
Page 78 and 79: Section 2.3Table 2Australia: Popula
Page 80 and 81: Section 2.3Table 4Views of Australi
Page 82 and 83: Section 2.3Table 5Australian States
Page 84 and 85: Section 2.3A number of hypotheses h
Page 86 and 87: Section 2.3Table 8Australia: Distri
Page 88 and 89: Section 2.3Table 10Non-Metropolitan
Page 90 and 91: Section 2.3Policy issuesThe configu
Page 92 and 93: Section 2.3Climate change is likely
Page 94 and 95: Section 2.3ConclusionAny realistic
Page 96 and 97: Section 2.340 Swan, W., 2010.Austra
Page 98 and 99: Section 2.4IntroductionThe Australi
Page 100 and 101: Section 2.4At present there is a hi
Page 102 and 103: Section 2.4innovation initiatives w
Page 104 and 105: Section 2.4Endnotes1 Henry, K 2009,
Page 106 and 107: Section 2.5IntroductionAustralia is
Page 108 and 109: Section 2.5else. Even with a broad
Page 110 and 111: Section 2.5commercially viable - th
Page 112 and 113: Section 2.5A vast country like Aust
Page 114 and 115: Section 3.0Society and the individu
Page 116 and 117: Section 3.1Extent of public opinion
Page 119 and 120: Section 3.1category immigrant/forei
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Section 3.1The Environics Research
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Section 3.1Per cent100908070Figure
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Section 3.1A number of surveys soug
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Section 3.1Table 8Percentage who an
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Section 3.1A more precise indicatio
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Section 3.1The strongest predictor
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Section 3.1Endnotes1. There is also
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3.2Social inclusion and multicultur
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Section 3.2a broader definition of
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Section 3.2Figure 1Estimated povert
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Section 3.2Table 2Visa Type of Sett
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Section 3.2Table 5First Generation
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Section 3.2Table 6Australia: First
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Section 3.2Improving outcomes for v
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Section 3.2increasing diversity of
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3.3Linkages between education and p
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Section 3.3Education and productivi
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Section 3.3In the past decade, prod
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Section 3.3succeed in education or
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Section 3.3case, funding also could
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Section 3.3Endnotes1 IGR 2010: Chal
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3.4Healthcare delivery for our agei
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Section 3.4• Private medical serv
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Section 3.4the whole spectrum of in
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Section 3.45. Experiences, pathways
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Section 3.4Stratification of patien
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Section 3.4Other steps include impr
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Section 3.438 National Health Refor
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4.1The economic effects ofpopulatio
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Section 4.1population growth can ex
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Section 4.1In theory, the answer pa
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Section 4.1Kirchner concedes that t
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Section 4.1Endnotes1. Productivity
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4.2Urban infrastructure and land us
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Section 4.2bearing the fixed costs
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Section 4.2Figure 1Indicative dwell
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Section 4.2Taking the electricity,
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Section 4.2Promoting better land us
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Section 4.2preferences to homeowner
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Section 4.2in any Australian urban
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Section 4.2Endnotes1 Productivity C
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4.3Water security:Water for the far
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Section 4.3Water trading enables us
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Section 4.3cent of water entitlemen
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Section 4.3were either the full eco
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Section 4.3Strategic opportunitiesA
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4.4Critiquing governmentregional de
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Section 4.4However, there is often
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Section 4.4Potential policy interve
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Section 4.4Unfortunately, advocacy
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Section 4.4contribute substantially
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Section 4.418 Department of Educati
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5.1The future of population policyG
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Section 5.1a million fewer women in
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Section 5.1For the present, ongoing
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Section 5.1The second worry is that
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Section 5.1The now significantly de
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