A Greater Australia: Population, policies and governance - CEDA

More documents

Recommendations

Info

Section 4.1ConclusionThis chapter has considered the economic impact of population growth and migration.Not only should attention be focused on the “intensive” margin – that is the impacton per capita income and output – but consideration should also be given to the distributionof the benefits and costs between the resident population and the migrantsthemselves.While population growth is the result of natural increase and net overseas migration,the government’s potential policy levers really affect only the second flow. It is thereforefitting to emphasise the role of migration in driving population growth and affecting thecomposition of the population and the labour force.It is absolutely clear that countries with large populations and countries with smallpopulations can be equally prosperous. And more rapid population growth is not necessarilyassociated with higher per capita income growth. There are other importantfactors at play.For studies that use models with the assumption of constant returns-to-scale and thestandard national accounting framework, a typical result is that the impact of populationgrowth via an increased migration intake is small, lagged and positive. Moreover,the gains largely accrue to the migrants, although the research of Docquier et al (2010)points to an increase in average wages across-the-board for Australia. In addition,some segments of the existing population can gain from immigration-driven populationgrowth (for example land owners and developers, employers facing labour shortagesand consumers of labour-intensive services).Interpreting the economic research on the impact of migration is made difficult becausethe nature of models, and the assumptions contained in them, can significantly affectthe answer to the question. As a consequence, there are reasons to rely on the researchabout the labour market impacts of migration that is subject to fewer qualifications. Wenote the importance of the distinction between migrant workers being either substitutesof or complements for local workers. The research in this area cannot be regarded assettled; however, the evidence suggests that migrant workers are complements for anumber of categories of local workers. Taking into account demand at a macro level,real wages overall appear to rise with an increased migration intake.New theories about the economic impact of population growth and migration highlightthe importance of new ideas, the diffusion of those ideas and the benefits of large cities.By the same token, there are clearly offsetting costs associated with rapid populationgrowth and larger cities. Optimal policies to deal with this scenario are useful, but donot entirely remove the costs for incumbents. Many of these new theories are not highlyamenable to empirical research; they are interesting nonetheless.Overall, there is an argument, albeit not an overwhelmingly strong one, that a countrycan be well-served by implementing a measured migration program focused on skills.A Greater Australia: Population, Policies and Governance183
Section 4.1Endnotes1. Productivity Commission 2011a, Submission to the Taskforce on the Sustainable Population Strategy for Australia, Canberra, May.2. Kirchner, S. 2011, ‘Hands, Mouths and Minds: Three Perspectives on Population Growth and Living Standards’, Policy Monograph,Population and Growth Series 5, Centre for Independent Studies, Sydney.3. Pincus, J.J. 2011, ‘A population policy for Australia’, CEDA Economic and Policy Overview 2011, pp.40–49.4. Bloom, D., Canning, D. and Sevilla, J. 2003, The Demographic Dividend: A New Perspective on the Economic Consequences ofPopulation Change, Santa Monica, Rand Corporation.5. Productivity Commission 2011a, Submission to the Taskforce on the Sustainable Population Strategy for Australia, Canberra, May, p.9.6. Productivity Commission 2006, ‘Economic Impacts of Migration and Population Growth’, Research Report, Canberra.7. There can be significant distributional effects on the existing population, with gains accruing to the owners of land and natural resources,at the expense of renters.8. Kirchner, S. 2011, ‘Hands, Mouths and Minds: Three Perspectives on Population Growth and Living Standards’, Policy Monograph,Population and Growth Series 5, Centre for Independent Studies, Sydney.9. Treasury 2010, Intergenerational Report 2010, Commonwealth of Australia, Canberra.10. Productivity Commission 2011a, Submission to the Taskforce on the Sustainable Population Strategy for Australia, Canberra, May.11. McDonald, P. and Temple, J. 2008, ‘Immigration, Labour Supply and Per Capita Gross Domestic Product: Australia 2010–2050’, FinalReport, Australian Demographic and Social Research Institute, ANU, Canberra.12. Productivity Commission 2006, ‘Economic Impacts of Migration and Population Growth’, Research Report, Canberra.13. Cobb-Clark, D. 2004, ‘Selection policy and the labour market outcomes of new immigrants’, Discussion paper no. 1380, Institute forthe Study of Labor (IZA), Bonn, Germany, November.14. Productivity Commission 2011b, Annual Report 2010–11, Canberra.15. Richardson, S. 2007, ‘What is a Skill Shortage?’ Report to National Council of Vocational Education Research, Adelaide.16. Pope, D and Withers, G., 1993. ‘Do Migrants Rob Jobs? Lessons from Australian History 1861 – 1991’, Journal of Economic History53.4, 719-742.17. Harris, R. and Robertson, P. 2007, ‘The dynamic effects of skilled labour targeting in immigration programs’, Discussion paper No. 21,School of Economics, University of New South Wales, Sydney.18. Islam, A. and Fausten, D. 2008, ‘Skilled immigration and wages in Australia’, Economic Record, Vol. 84, S66-S82.19. Docquier, F., Ozden, C. and Peri, G. 2010, ‘The wage effects of immigration and emigration’, National Bureau of Economic Research,Working paper No. 16646, December.20. Pincus, J.J. 2011, ‘A population policy for Australia’, CEDA Economic and Policy Overview 2011, pp.40–49.21. Pincus, J.J. 2011, ‘A population policy for Australia’, CEDA Economic and Policy Overview 2011, pp.45.22. Bond, M. and Gaston, N. 2011, ‘The Impact of Immigration on Australian-born Workers: An Assessment Using the National LabourMarket Approach’, Economic Papers, 30.3, 400–413.23. Kirchner, S. 2011, ‘Hands, Mouths and Minds: Three Perspectives on Population Growth and Living Standards’, Policy Monograph,Population and Growth Series 5, Centre for Independent Studies, Sydney.24. Simon, J, L 1998, ‘The Ultimate Resource 2’, p 367.25. Ridley, M., 2010, The Rational Optimist: How Prosperity Evolves, Harper-Collins.26. Wilkie, J., and T McDonald, 2008, “Economic geography and economic performance in Australia”, Economic Round-up Issue No. 3, TheTreasury, Australian Government27. Keller, W. 2002, ‘Geographic Localization of International Technological Diffusion’, American Economic Review 92:1, 120–142.28. Glaeser, E. 1998, ‘Are Cities Dying’, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol 12 (2), 139– 60.29. Glaeser, E. 2011, Triumph of The City, The Penguin Press, New York.30. Ciccone, A. and Hall, R. 1996, ‘Productivity and the density of economic activity’, American Economic Review, 86(1), 54–70.31. Pincus, J.J. 2011, ‘A population policy for Australia’, CEDA Economic and Policy Overview 2011, pp.40–49.32. Docquier, F., Ozden, C. and Peri, G. 2010, ‘The wage effects of immigration and emigration’, National Bureau of Economic Research,Working paper No. 16646, December.A Greater Australia: Population, Policies and Governance184
Page 2 and 3:
A Greater Australia:Population, pol
Page 4 and 5:
ContentsForeword CEDA Chief Executi
Page 6 and 7:
ForewordIt is with pleasure that I
Page 8 and 9:
IntroductionResponding to the resul
Page 10 and 11:
IntroductionA more dynamic and vita
Page 12 and 13:
IntroductionSustainabilityConcern a
Page 14 and 15:
IntroductionThe new demographics, h
Page 16 and 17:
Section 1.0Historical perspectives1
Page 18 and 19:
Section 1.1IntroductionJapan’s cr
Page 20 and 21:
Section 1.1Figure 1Forecast number
Page 22 and 23:
Section 1.1Table 1Defence spending
Page 24 and 25:
Section 1.1How much defence is enou
Page 26 and 27:
Section 1.1ConclusionA substantial
Page 28 and 29:
Section 1.2There has been over a ce
Page 30 and 31:
Section 1.2Resource constraints wer
Page 32 and 33:
Section 1.2Similarly, in the 1994 H
Page 34 and 35:
Section 1.2ReferencesAustralia, Dep
Page 36 and 37:
Section 1.3IntroductionAustralia is
Page 38 and 39:
Section 1.3The grey 90sThe heady ex
Page 40 and 41:
Section 1.3Taylor’s stony rebutta
Page 42 and 43:
Section 1.3Figure 1The Benhamite Op
Page 44 and 45:
Section 1.3In mathematical terms, t
Page 46 and 47:
Section 1.3characterisation of the
Page 48 and 49:
Section 1.3ConclusionA retrospectiv
Page 50 and 51:
Section 2.0Population futures2.1 Fo
Page 52 and 53:
Section 2.1Conventional population
Page 54 and 55:
Section 2.1It is more useful for go
Page 56 and 57:
Section 2.1Forecasting of births, w
Page 58 and 59:
Section 2.1Future net overseas migr
Page 60 and 61:
Section 2.13). This had a lot to do
Page 62 and 63:
Section 2.2IntroductionIn late Sept
Page 64 and 65:
Section 2.2Figure 1The migrant cont
Page 66 and 67:
Section 2.2The visa and residency s
Page 68 and 69:
Section 2.2sponsorship, subject to
Page 70 and 71:
Section 2.2Figure 3Historical and p
Page 72 and 73:
Section 2.2The views in this chapte
Page 74 and 75:
Section 2.3IntroductionThe Australi
Page 76 and 77:
Section 2.3Figure 3Australia: Distr
Page 78 and 79:
Section 2.3Table 2Australia: Popula
Page 80 and 81:
Section 2.3Table 4Views of Australi
Page 82 and 83:
Section 2.3Table 5Australian States
Page 84 and 85:
Section 2.3A number of hypotheses h
Page 86 and 87:
Section 2.3Table 8Australia: Distri
Page 88 and 89:
Section 2.3Table 10Non-Metropolitan
Page 90 and 91:
Section 2.3Policy issuesThe configu
Page 92 and 93:
Section 2.3Climate change is likely
Page 94 and 95:
Section 2.3ConclusionAny realistic
Page 96 and 97:
Section 2.340 Swan, W., 2010.Austra
Page 98 and 99:
Section 2.4IntroductionThe Australi
Page 100 and 101:
Section 2.4At present there is a hi
Page 102 and 103:
Section 2.4innovation initiatives w
Page 104 and 105:
Section 2.4Endnotes1 Henry, K 2009,
Page 106 and 107:
Section 2.5IntroductionAustralia is
Page 108 and 109:
Section 2.5else. Even with a broad
Page 110 and 111:
Section 2.5commercially viable - th
Page 112 and 113:
Section 2.5A vast country like Aust
Page 114 and 115:
Section 3.0Society and the individu
Page 116 and 117:
Section 3.1Extent of public opinion
Page 119 and 120:
Section 3.1category immigrant/forei
Page 121 and 122:
Section 3.1The Environics Research
Page 123 and 124:
Section 3.1Per cent100908070Figure
Page 125 and 126:
Section 3.1A number of surveys soug
Page 127 and 128:
Section 3.1Table 8Percentage who an
Page 129 and 130:
Section 3.1A more precise indicatio
Page 131 and 132:
Section 3.1The strongest predictor
Page 133 and 134: Section 3.1Endnotes1. There is also
Page 135 and 136: 3.2Social inclusion and multicultur
Page 137 and 138: Section 3.2a broader definition of
Page 139 and 140: Section 3.2Figure 1Estimated povert
Page 141 and 142: Section 3.2Table 2Visa Type of Sett
Page 143 and 144: Section 3.2Table 5First Generation
Page 145 and 146: Section 3.2Table 6Australia: First
Page 147 and 148: Section 3.2Improving outcomes for v
Page 149 and 150: Section 3.2increasing diversity of
Page 151 and 152: 3.3Linkages between education and p
Page 153 and 154: Section 3.3Education and productivi
Page 155 and 156: Section 3.3In the past decade, prod
Page 157 and 158: Section 3.3succeed in education or
Page 159 and 160: Section 3.3case, funding also could
Page 161 and 162: Section 3.3Endnotes1 IGR 2010: Chal
Page 163 and 164: 3.4Healthcare delivery for our agei
Page 165 and 166: Section 3.4• Private medical serv
Page 167 and 168: Section 3.4the whole spectrum of in
Page 169 and 170: Section 3.45. Experiences, pathways
Page 171 and 172: Section 3.4Stratification of patien
Page 173 and 174: Section 3.4Other steps include impr
Page 175 and 176: Section 3.438 National Health Refor
Page 177 and 178: 4.1The economic effects ofpopulatio
Page 179 and 180: Section 4.1population growth can ex
Page 181 and 182: Section 4.1In theory, the answer pa
Page 183: Section 4.1Kirchner concedes that t
Page 187 and 188: 4.2Urban infrastructure and land us
Page 189 and 190: Section 4.2bearing the fixed costs
Page 191 and 192: Section 4.2Figure 1Indicative dwell
Page 193 and 194: Section 4.2Taking the electricity,
Page 195 and 196: Section 4.2Promoting better land us
Page 197 and 198: Section 4.2preferences to homeowner
Page 199 and 200: Section 4.2in any Australian urban
Page 201 and 202: Section 4.2Endnotes1 Productivity C
Page 203 and 204: 4.3Water security:Water for the far
Page 205 and 206: Section 4.3Water trading enables us
Page 207 and 208: Section 4.3cent of water entitlemen
Page 209 and 210: Section 4.3were either the full eco
Page 211 and 212: Section 4.3Strategic opportunitiesA
Page 213 and 214: 4.4Critiquing governmentregional de
Page 215 and 216: Section 4.4However, there is often
Page 217 and 218: Section 4.4Potential policy interve
Page 219 and 220: Section 4.4Unfortunately, advocacy
Page 221 and 222: Section 4.4contribute substantially
Page 223 and 224: Section 4.418 Department of Educati
Page 225 and 226: 5.1The future of population policyG
Page 227 and 228: Section 5.1a million fewer women in
Page 229 and 230: Section 5.1For the present, ongoing
Page 231 and 232: Section 5.1The second worry is that
Page 233 and 234: Section 5.1The now significantly de
show all

A Greater Australia: Population, policies and governance - CEDA

Create successful ePaper yourself

Delete template?

Save as template?