A Greater Australia: Population, policies and governance - CEDA

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Section 2.0Population futures2.1 Forecasts and projections of Australia’s population p50Peter McDonaldThis chapter outlines Australia’s demographic situation and analyses future scenariosincluding ABS projections, as well as mortality, fertility, migration and ageing.2.2 Australia Unbound? Migration, openness and population futures p60Mark Cully and Laze PejoskiThis chapter analyses contemporary immigration in a global context andfuture migration scenarios, drivers and trends.2.3 Population distribution and internal migration p72Graeme HugoThis chapter analyses the stability and change in Australian populationdistribution, including regional population trends and the roles of internationaland internal migration.2.4 Climate change in Australia: Implications for population p96Don GunasekeraThis chapter examines climate change predictions and the potential for this toimpact on the spatial pattern of settlement and production.2.5 Climate change implications of a large Australian population p104Barry BrookThis chapter examines the interaction between energy demand and thenatural environment and what role it will play on Australia’s capacity forpopulation growth.A Greater Australia: Population, Policies and Governance49
2.1Forecasts and projections ofAustralia’s populationPeter McDonaldPeter McDonald is Professor of Demography andDirector of the Australian Demographic and SocialResearch Institute at the Australian National University.He is President of the International Union for theScientific Study of Population for the years, 2010–2013. He is frequently consulted on the issue ofpopulation futures (causes, consequences and policies)by governments around the world, especially in Australia, Europe and East Asia.In 2008, he was appointed as a Member in the Order of Australia. He is DeputyDirector of the ARC Centre of Excellence in Population Ageing Research.A Greater Australia: Population, Policies and Governance50
Page 2 and 3: A Greater Australia:Population, pol
Page 4 and 5: ContentsForeword CEDA Chief Executi
Page 6 and 7: ForewordIt is with pleasure that I
Page 8 and 9: IntroductionResponding to the resul
Page 10 and 11: IntroductionA more dynamic and vita
Page 12 and 13: IntroductionSustainabilityConcern a
Page 14 and 15: IntroductionThe new demographics, h
Page 16 and 17: Section 1.0Historical perspectives1
Page 18 and 19: Section 1.1IntroductionJapan’s cr
Page 20 and 21: Section 1.1Figure 1Forecast number
Page 22 and 23: Section 1.1Table 1Defence spending
Page 24 and 25: Section 1.1How much defence is enou
Page 26 and 27: Section 1.1ConclusionA substantial
Page 28 and 29: Section 1.2There has been over a ce
Page 30 and 31: Section 1.2Resource constraints wer
Page 32 and 33: Section 1.2Similarly, in the 1994 H
Page 34 and 35: Section 1.2ReferencesAustralia, Dep
Page 36 and 37: Section 1.3IntroductionAustralia is
Page 38 and 39: Section 1.3The grey 90sThe heady ex
Page 40 and 41: Section 1.3Taylor’s stony rebutta
Page 42 and 43: Section 1.3Figure 1The Benhamite Op
Page 44 and 45: Section 1.3In mathematical terms, t
Page 46 and 47: Section 1.3characterisation of the
Page 48 and 49: Section 1.3ConclusionA retrospectiv
Page 52 and 53: Section 2.1Conventional population
Page 54 and 55: Section 2.1It is more useful for go
Page 56 and 57: Section 2.1Forecasting of births, w
Page 58 and 59: Section 2.1Future net overseas migr
Page 60 and 61: Section 2.13). This had a lot to do
Page 62 and 63: Section 2.2IntroductionIn late Sept
Page 64 and 65: Section 2.2Figure 1The migrant cont
Page 66 and 67: Section 2.2The visa and residency s
Page 68 and 69: Section 2.2sponsorship, subject to
Page 70 and 71: Section 2.2Figure 3Historical and p
Page 72 and 73: Section 2.2The views in this chapte
Page 74 and 75: Section 2.3IntroductionThe Australi
Page 76 and 77: Section 2.3Figure 3Australia: Distr
Page 78 and 79: Section 2.3Table 2Australia: Popula
Page 80 and 81: Section 2.3Table 4Views of Australi
Page 82 and 83: Section 2.3Table 5Australian States
Page 84 and 85: Section 2.3A number of hypotheses h
Page 86 and 87: Section 2.3Table 8Australia: Distri
Page 88 and 89: Section 2.3Table 10Non-Metropolitan
Page 90 and 91: Section 2.3Policy issuesThe configu
Page 92 and 93: Section 2.3Climate change is likely
Page 94 and 95: Section 2.3ConclusionAny realistic
Page 96 and 97: Section 2.340 Swan, W., 2010.Austra
Page 98 and 99: Section 2.4IntroductionThe Australi
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Section 2.4At present there is a hi
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Section 2.4innovation initiatives w
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Section 2.4Endnotes1 Henry, K 2009,
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Section 2.5IntroductionAustralia is
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Section 2.5else. Even with a broad
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Section 2.5commercially viable - th
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Section 2.5A vast country like Aust
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Section 3.0Society and the individu
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Section 3.1Extent of public opinion
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Section 3.1category immigrant/forei
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Section 3.1The Environics Research
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Section 3.1Per cent100908070Figure
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Section 3.1A number of surveys soug
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Section 3.1Table 8Percentage who an
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Section 3.1A more precise indicatio
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Section 3.1The strongest predictor
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Section 3.1Endnotes1. There is also
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3.2Social inclusion and multicultur
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Section 3.2a broader definition of
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Section 3.2Figure 1Estimated povert
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Section 3.2Table 2Visa Type of Sett
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Section 3.2Table 5First Generation
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Section 3.2Table 6Australia: First
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Section 3.2Improving outcomes for v
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Section 3.2increasing diversity of
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3.3Linkages between education and p
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Section 3.3Education and productivi
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Section 3.3In the past decade, prod
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Section 3.3succeed in education or
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Section 3.3case, funding also could
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Section 3.3Endnotes1 IGR 2010: Chal
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3.4Healthcare delivery for our agei
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Section 3.4• Private medical serv
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Section 3.4the whole spectrum of in
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Section 3.45. Experiences, pathways
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Section 3.4Stratification of patien
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Section 3.4Other steps include impr
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Section 3.438 National Health Refor
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4.1The economic effects ofpopulatio
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Section 4.1population growth can ex
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Section 4.1In theory, the answer pa
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Section 4.1Kirchner concedes that t
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Section 4.1Endnotes1. Productivity
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4.2Urban infrastructure and land us
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Section 4.2bearing the fixed costs
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Section 4.2Figure 1Indicative dwell
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Section 4.2Taking the electricity,
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Section 4.2Promoting better land us
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Section 4.2preferences to homeowner
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Section 4.2in any Australian urban
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Section 4.2Endnotes1 Productivity C
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4.3Water security:Water for the far
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Section 4.3Water trading enables us
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Section 4.3cent of water entitlemen
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Section 4.3were either the full eco
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Section 4.3Strategic opportunitiesA
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4.4Critiquing governmentregional de
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Section 4.4However, there is often
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Section 4.4Potential policy interve
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Section 4.4Unfortunately, advocacy
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Section 4.4contribute substantially
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Section 4.418 Department of Educati
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5.1The future of population policyG
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Section 5.1a million fewer women in
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Section 5.1For the present, ongoing
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Section 5.1The second worry is that
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Section 5.1The now significantly de
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A Greater Australia: Population, policies and governance - CEDA

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