eWORK 2000 - European Telework Week

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New Ways to Work 2000European TeleworkPractice, plans and interest in any kind of telework in % of all establishments 1999establishments that do notpractise telework already(in % of all est.)establishments that practisetelework already(in % of all est.)totalconcreteplans forintroducinginterest inintroducingno interestinintroducingn.a. oninterestconcreteplans forextensioninterest inextensionno interestinextensionn.a. oninterestDenmark 5.3 6.0 28.8 2.0 25.4 12.6 9.7 10.2 100Finland 1.5 9.2 28.7 1.3 15.6 18.2 12.4 13.1 100France 4.4 7.0 49.8 3.8 4.5 6.5 10.8 13.3 100Germany 5.6 11.6 50.6 2.3 5.2 10.8 5.0 8.9 100Ireland 3.6 8.7 43.6 5.0 7.3 9.7 7.1 14.9 100Italy 2.3 8.0 62.2 10.2 1.9 4.3 2.9 8.1 100Netherlands 5.0 7.7 37.0 4.3 5.0 16.3 11.7 13.0 100Spain 4.5 6.1 60.8 8.6 1.9 6.4 4.0 7.7 100Sweden 2.2 4.5 29.3 2.4 17.0 13.3 18.1 13.3 100U.K. 2.1 3.7 37.4 1.8 10.8 12.8 11.2 20.2 100EU10 3.9 7.6 48.3 4.4 6.3 9.6 7.7 12.1 100Source: Gareis & Kordey 2000As the results from ECaTT do not tell us how many teleworkplaces establishments are planning to set up inthe next few years, an assumption about how large the number of newly set up teleworkplaces as a share oftotal workforce is necessary. We assume that this share will be as high as the current aggregate share ofteleworkers amongst those establishments that employ teleworkers (in Germany: 6% of the labour force areteleworkers and 30% are employed in establishments that practise telework, i.e. in the latter in average 20% ofthe workforce are actually teleworking).Extrapolation Model1999Non-teleworkers (GPS)Employed in non-teleworking establishments (DMS)Teleworkers(GPS)Employed in teleworking establishments (DMS)Employed in establishments thatwill not introduce teleworkEmployed inestablishmentsthat are interestedin introducingtelew.Employed inestablishmentsthat have plansto introduceteleworkEmployed inestablishmentsthat will notextendteleworkEmployed inestablishmentsthat areinterested inextendingteleworkEmployed inestablishmentsthat have plansto extendteleworkassumptions:x%* of thesebecometeleworkersuntil 2005assumptions:x%* of thesebecometeleworkers until2002assumptions:x%* of thesebecometeleworkers until2005assumptions:x%* of thesebecometeleworkers until20022005Non-teleworkersTw.Nontelew.Nontelew.tw.Non-telew.Non-tw.Newtw.Non-tw.+ teleworkers already existent in 1999Newtw.* x = [teleworkers 1999] / [employed in teleworking establishments 1999]Source: Gareis & Kordey 2000- 38 -
New Ways to Work 2000European TeleworkAnecdotal evidence tells us that this assumption is conservative, as many companies that already make use oftelework have set up teleworkplaces on an ad-hoc basis and serving only those who for private reasonsdesperately need to work at home, while many new telework projects seem to be conceptually better preparedand aim at providing telework as a more regular solution to employee as well as company requirements.We further assume that establishments that in 1999 planned to introduce/ extend telework will have done so tothe said degree in 5 to 6 years time, while those which already have concrete plans will only need about 2 to 3years. These are very rough estimates that stem from evidence from the insurance industry.Using this model for all countries surveyed in ECaTT, 2005 diffusion rates can be estimated. They rangebetween 5% in Spain (up from 3% in 1999) to 29% in Finland (17%). Comparing the results from bothextrapolation models for the five biggest EU member states, it is striking that estimates for France, Spain andthe U.K. are very close in both models, while the figures for Italy and Germany are much smaller when usingthe extrapolation that is based on employers’ 1999 interest/ plans. This seems to suggest that the high growthrates that Italy and Germany have shown in the period 1994-99 most likely indicated rather a process ofcatching up to European forerunners like the United Kingdom, but did not mean the beginning of a period ofcontinuous above-average growth in the near future.Extrapolation model: results for 10 European countries (in % of total labour force)Home-based teleworkersall teleworkers1999 (ECaTT) 2005 (estimate) 1999 (ECaTT) 2005 (estimate)Denmark 4.5 10.2 10.5 19.4Finland 6.7 16.7 16.8 29.4France 1.2 2.4 2.9 4.8Germany 1.5 4.0 6.0 12.6Ireland 1.0 2.1 4.4 7.7Italy 1.6 4.2 3.6 7.1Netherlands 4.0 9.7 14.5 25.2Spain 1.3 2.7 2.8 5.4Sweden 5.3 11.2 15.2 24.3U.K. 2.4 4.3 7.6 11.7EU10 2.0 4.2 6.1 10.8Source: Gareis & Kordey 2000- 39 -
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eWORK 2000 - European Telework Week

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