NASA Scientific and Technical Aerospace Reports

This new paradigm of abrupt climate change does not appear to be on the radar screens of military planners, who treat climate
change as a long term, low-level threat, with mostly sociological, not national security, implications. But intense and abrupt
climate changes could escalate environmental issues into unanticipated security threats, and could compromise an unprepared
military. The global ocean circulation system, often called the Ocean Conveyor, can change rapidly and shift the distribution
patterns of heat and rainfall over large areas of the globe. The North Atlantic region is particularly vulnerable to abrupt
regional coolings linked to ocean circulation changes. Global warming and ocean circulation changes also threaten the Arctic
Ocean’s sea ice cover. Beyond the abrupt climatic impacts, fundamental changes in ocean circulation also have immediate
naval implications. Recent evidence suggests that the oceans already may be experiencing large-scale changes that could affect
Earth’s climate. Military planners should begin to consider potential abrupt climate change scenarios and their impacts on
national defense.
DTIC
Cooling; Global Warming; Greenhouse Effect; Horizon; Military Operations; Security
20040074160 Army Engineer Research and Development Center, Vicksburg, MS
Typhoon-Induced Stage-Frequency Relationships for the Island of Rota, Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana
Islands
Thompson, Edward F.; Scheffner, Norman; Feb. 2004; 142 pp.; In English
Report No.(s): AD-A422625; ERDC/CHL-TR-04-1; No Copyright; Avail: CASI; A07, Hardcopy
A set of typhoon-induced stage-frequency relationships was developed for inhabited coasts of the island of Rota,
Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands. The objective was to assist the Honolulu District in estimating extreme
maximum inundation levels and maximum still-water levels with return period of up to 500 years. Calculations of surge, wind
and pressure field, and wave characteristics were performed for 28 historical storms and four hypothetical variations of
historical storms through application of numerical models. Wave-induced ponding, setup, and runup were calculated at 87
profile locations specified by the Honolulu District. The Empirical Simulation Technique was applied to calculate
stage-frequency relationships based on historical storm parameters and calculated response to the storms. These relationships
were calculated from the maximum total water levels computed for each storm (including storm surge, ponding, and runup)
and from the maximum still-water levels for each storm (including storm surge, ponding, and wave setup). The methodology
was calibrated to observations so that stage- frequency values for maximum total water level are expected to represent
maximum debris line inundation levels.
DTIC
Frequencies; Islands; Typhoons
20040074236 NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
Observations of the Upper Tropospheric Water Vapor Feedback in UARS MLS and HALOE Data
Dessler, A. E.; Minschwaner, K. R.; [2004]; 1 pp.; In English; FAll AGU 2003, 8-12 Dec. 2003, San Francisco, CA, USA;
No Copyright; Avail: Other Sources; Abstract Only
One of the biggest uncertainties in climate science today concerns the water vapor feedback. Most GCMs hold relative
humidity fixed as the climate changes, which provides a strong positive feedback to warming due from anthropogenic
greenhouse gas emissions. Some in the community, on the other hand, have speculated that tropospheric specific humidity will
remain fixed as the climate changes. Observational studies have attempted to resolve this disagreement, but the results have
been inconclusive, and few of the studies have focused on the upper troposphere (UT). This is a significant oversight: the
surface temperature is especially sensitive to changes in water vapor in the UT owing to the cold temperatures found there.
We present an analysis of UARS MLS and HALOE water vapor measurements at 21 5 hPa. We find strong evidence that the
water vapor feedback in the UT is positive, but not as strong as fixed relative humidity scenarios. This suggests that GCMs
are overestimating the sensitivity of the climate.
Author
Water Vapor; Troposphere; Climate Change; Feedback; Greenhouse Effect
20040074238 NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
Dust Transport and Deposition Observed from the Terra-MODIS Space Observations
Kaufman, Y. J.; Koren, I.; Remer, L. A.; Tanre, D.; Fan, Ginoux; Fan, S.; [2004]; 1 pp.; In English; AGU Fall 2003 Meeting,
8-12 Dec. 2003, San Francisco, CA, USA; No Copyright; Avail: Other Sources; Abstract Only
Meteorological observations, in situ data and satellite images of dust episodes were used already in the 1970s to estimate
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