ocp192_en

Recommendations

Info

Annex 1: Assessment of compliance with the Memorandum ofUnderstanding on Specific Policy Conditionality 75Annex 2: Macroeconomic forecast 133Annex 3: Updated programme documents 139Letter of Intent 141Memorandum of Understandinga) Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies XXXb) Memorandum of Understanding on Specific Economic Policy conditionality 145c) Technical Memorandum of Understanding XXXLIST OF BOXESBox 1. The documents for a comprehensive adjustment strategy 9Box 2. Success stories of the Economic Adjustment Programme 10Box 3. Competitiveness and Greek export performance 15Box 4. Public sector arrears to the private sector in Greece 23Box 5. Measures to increase compliance in social security collection 25Box 6. Closing the VAT Gap: the need for VAT reform in Greece 31Box 7. The new ENFIA Property Tax 32Box 8. The 2013 instalment schemes for tax and social security debt 34Box 9. Achievements in Public Finance Management and in the fiscal institutional framework since thebeginning of the programme 36Box 10. Rationalising the social health insurance system and ensuring the financial stability of EOPYY 42Box 11. Measuring labour market reform intensity in Greece 49Box 12. Product Market Reforms – A heatmap 52Box 13. Reforms of Business Registration 54Box 14. Reforms of Regulated Professions 56Box 15. Greek courts performance 59Box 16. Reforms in the energy sector and the case for their acceleration 61LIST OF TABLESTable 1. Macroeconomic scenario, main features (2012-2017) 14Table 2. Bridge table from ESA General Government Balance to Programme Primary Balance Definition22Table 3. Fiscal quantitative performance criteria (EUR billion) 22Table 4. Medium-term fiscal projections 26Table 5. Expected Privatisation Receipts 28Table 6. Privatisation Plan 29Table 7. Greece - employment in public sector (number of persons) 38Table 8. Capital needs (billion EURs) 45Table 9. Disbursements under the Greek adjustment programmes (EUR billion) 69Table 10. Financing programme: quarterly financing needs and disbursements of official assistance 71Table 11. Greece Financing Needs 2012-2016 72Table 12. List of Milestones to be achieved by end-May and end-June 2014 73ii
LIST OF GRAPHSGraph 1. Economic climate tracer 12Graph 2. Economic Sentiment Indicator and Purchasing Managers Index 12Graph 3. Production indicators: industrial production, retail turnover and building permits 12Graph 4. Exports of goods and services and exports of travel services 12Graph 5. Contribution of GDP components to GDP growth 12Graph 6. Labour market: unemployment rate vs. changes in employment 12Graph 7. Growth in nominal compensation per employee and unemployment 13Graph 8. Monthly HICP developments and annual averages 13Graph 9. Greek 10y and 3m Bond Yield spread against Bund 18Graph 10. Athens Stock Exchange Indices 18Graph 11. Bank deposits 19Graph 12. Credit to private sector (% change, y-o-y) 19Graph 13. Total borrowing from the Eurosystem 19Graph 14. Non-performing loans ratio 19Graph 15. State primary payments 2013 22Graph 16. General Government primary balance 2013 (cash basis, cumulative balance, EUR million) 22Graph 17. Tax administration new debt in 2013 and collection of 2013 debt (million EURs) 34Graph 18. Tax administration collection of debt (million EURs) 34Graph 19. Greek General Government employment (thousands of persons) 38Graph 20. Greece – General Government Debt (% of GDP) 67Graph 21. Dynamic profile of stress-test scenarios and overall impact in 2020 (% of GDP) 68LIST OF GRAPHS INTO BOXESGraph 2.1. ULC 15Graph 2.2. REER 15Graph 2.3. Exports of goods (volumes; 2008=100) 15Graph 2.4. Exports of services (volumes; 2008=100) 15Graph 2.5. Estimate of the Greek competitiveness gap by year (%) 16Graph 2.6. Estimate of the Greek sector competitiveness 16Graph 2.7. Institutional quality indicators for Greece and EU-OECD 16Graph 2.8. FDI in EA countries (average 2000-2007 as % of GDP) 16Graph 4.1. Special plan for arrears' clearance (cumulative) 23Graph 4.2. Implied increase of arrears in 2013 (cumulative) 23Graph 4.3. Stock of general government arrears 23Graph 5.1. Annual change in wages and contributions paid (2012-13) 25Graph 5.2. Monthly debt collection by IKA, 2012-14 25Graph 6.1. Average VAT tax efficiency ratio (2000-2008) 31Graph 6.2. Evolution of VAT tax efficiency ratio 31Graph 8.1. Enrolment of tax and social security debt into the fresh start and basic schemes 35Graph 11.1 labour reform intensity and direction of reforms in EU countries since 2010 50Graph 13.1. Distance to Frontier of Ease of Doing Business (Frontier=100) 54Graph 13.2. Average time for Business Registration (days) 54Graph 13.3. Total Costs (Administrative Burden and Charges) for Business Registration (Euro) 55Graph 13.4. Business Entry (number) 55Graph 14.1. Regulatory barriers in professional services 57iii
Page 2 and 3: Occasional Papers are written by th
Page 5: OUTLINE OF THE REPORTEXECUTIVE SUMM
Page 9: ACKNOWLEDGEMENTSThe report was prep
Page 12 and 13: European CommissionThe Economic Adj
Page 19 and 20: 1. INTRODUCTION1. INTRODUCTION1. Th
Page 21 and 22: 2. MACROECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL DEVE
Page 23 and 24: 2. Macroeconomic and financial deve
Page 25 and 26: Chart 3Graph 2.3. Exports of goods
Page 27 and 28: 2. Macroeconomic and financial deve
Page 29: 2. Macroeconomic and financial deve
Page 32 and 33: European CommissionThe Second Econo
Page 56 and 57:
European CommissionThe Second Econo
Page 58 and 59:
Page 60 and 61:
Chart 17Graph 11.1 labour reform in
Page 62 and 63:
Page 64 and 65:
Chart 18Graph 13.1. Distance to Fro
Page 66 and 67:
Page 68 and 69:
Page 70 and 71:
Page 72 and 73:
Page 74 and 75:
Page 77 and 78:
4. DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS AND
Page 79 and 80:
4. Debt sustainability analysis and
Page 81 and 82:
4. Debt sustainability analysis and
Page 83:
Table 12. List of Milestones to be
Page 86 and 87:
Page 88 and 89:
Page 90 and 91:
Page 92 and 93:
Page 94 and 95:
Page 96 and 97:
Page 98 and 99:
Page 100 and 101:
Page 102 and 103:
Page 104 and 105:
Page 106 and 107:
Page 108 and 109:
Page 110 and 111:
Page 112 and 113:
Page 114 and 115:
Page 116 and 117:
Page 118 and 119:
Page 120 and 121:
Page 122 and 123:
Page 124 and 125:
Page 126 and 127:
Page 128 and 129:
Page 130 and 131:
Page 132 and 133:
Page 134 and 135:
Page 136 and 137:
Page 138 and 139:
Page 140 and 141:
Page 143 and 144:
ANNEX 2: MACROECONOMIC FORECASTANNE
Page 145 and 146:
ANNEXTable B1: USE AND SUPPLY OF GO
Page 147 and 148:
ANNEXTable C1: FISCAL ACCOUNTS AND
Page 149:
ANNEX 3: UPDATED PROGRAMME DOCUMENT
Page 152 and 153:
Page 154 and 155:
Page 156 and 157:
Memorandum of Understanding on Spec
Page 158 and 159:
Page 160 and 161:
Page 162 and 163:
Page 164 and 165:
Page 166 and 167:
Page 168 and 169:
Page 170 and 171:
Page 172 and 173:
Page 174 and 175:
Page 176 and 177:
Page 178 and 179:
Page 180 and 181:
Page 182 and 183:
Page 184 and 185:
Page 186 and 187:
Page 188 and 189:
Page 190 and 191:
Page 192 and 193:
Page 194 and 195:
Page 196 and 197:
Page 198 and 199:
Page 200 and 201:
Page 202 and 203:
Page 204 and 205:
Page 206 and 207:
Page 208 and 209:
Page 210 and 211:
Page 212 and 213:
Page 214 and 215:
Page 216 and 217:
Page 218 and 219:
Page 220 and 221:
Page 222 and 223:
Page 224 and 225:
Page 226 and 227:
Page 228 and 229:
Page 230 and 231:
Page 232 and 233:
Page 234 and 235:
Page 236 and 237:
Page 239 and 240:
OCCASIONAL PAPERSOccasional Papers
Page 241 and 242:
No. 46No. 47No. 48No. 49The Western
Page 243 and 244:
No. 80 2011 Pre-accession Economic
Page 245 and 246:
No. 119No. 120No. 121No. 122Possibl
Page 247 and 248:
No. 1582013 Economic and Fiscal Pro
Page 251 and 252:
HOW TO OBTAIN EU PUBLICATIONSFree p
show all

ocp192_en

Create successful ePaper yourself

Delete template?

Save as template?