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Annex 1: Assessment of compliance with the Memorandum ofUnderstanding on Specific Policy Conditionality 75Annex 2: Macroeconomic forecast 133Annex 3: Updated programme documents 139Letter of Intent 141Memorandum of Understandinga) Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies XXXb) Memorandum of Understanding on Specific Economic Policy conditionality 145c) Technical Memorandum of Understanding XXXLIST OF BOXESBox 1. The documents for a comprehensive adjustment strategy 9Box 2. Success stories of the Economic Adjustment Programme 10Box 3. Competitiveness and Greek export performance 15Box 4. Public sector arrears to the private sector in Greece 23Box 5. Measures to increase compliance in social security collection 25Box 6. Closing the VAT Gap: the need for VAT reform in Greece 31Box 7. The new ENFIA Property Tax 32Box 8. The 2013 instalment schemes for tax and social security debt 34Box 9. Achievements in Public Finance Management and in the fiscal institutional framework since thebeginning of the programme 36Box 10. Rationalising the social health insurance system and ensuring the financial stability of EOPYY 42Box 11. Measuring labour market reform intensity in Greece 49Box 12. Product Market Reforms – A heatmap 52Box 13. Reforms of Business Registration 54Box 14. Reforms of Regulated Professions 56Box 15. Greek courts performance 59Box 16. Reforms in the energy sector and the case for their acceleration 61LIST OF TABLESTable 1. Macroeconomic scenario, main features (2012-2017) 14Table 2. Bridge table from ESA General Government Balance to Programme Primary Balance Definition22Table 3. Fiscal quantitative performance criteria (EUR billion) 22Table 4. Medium-term fiscal projections 26Table 5. Expected Privatisation Receipts 28Table 6. Privatisation Plan 29Table 7. Greece - employment in public sector (number of persons) 38Table 8. Capital needs (billion EURs) 45Table 9. Disbursements under the Greek adjustment programmes (EUR billion) 69Table 10. Financing programme: quarterly financing needs and disbursements of official assistance 71Table 11. Greece Financing Needs 2012-2016 72Table 12. List of Milestones to be achieved by end-May and end-June 2014 73ii
LIST OF GRAPHSGraph 1. Economic climate tracer 12Graph 2. Economic Sentiment Indicator and Purchasing Managers Index 12Graph 3. Production indicators: industrial production, retail turnover and building permits 12Graph 4. Exports of goods and services and exports of travel services 12Graph 5. Contribution of GDP components to GDP growth 12Graph 6. Labour market: unemployment rate vs. changes in employment 12Graph 7. Growth in nominal compensation per employee and unemployment 13Graph 8. Monthly HICP developments and annual averages 13Graph 9. Greek 10y and 3m Bond Yield spread against Bund 18Graph 10. Athens Stock Exchange Indices 18Graph 11. Bank deposits 19Graph 12. Credit to private sector (% change, y-o-y) 19Graph 13. Total borrowing from the Eurosystem 19Graph 14. Non-performing loans ratio 19Graph 15. State primary payments 2013 22Graph 16. General Government primary balance 2013 (cash basis, cumulative balance, EUR million) 22Graph 17. Tax administration new debt in 2013 and collection of 2013 debt (million EURs) 34Graph 18. Tax administration collection of debt (million EURs) 34Graph 19. Greek General Government employment (thousands of persons) 38Graph 20. Greece – General Government Debt (% of GDP) 67Graph 21. Dynamic profile of stress-test scenarios and overall impact in 2020 (% of GDP) 68LIST OF GRAPHS INTO BOXESGraph 2.1. ULC 15Graph 2.2. REER 15Graph 2.3. Exports of goods (volumes; 2008=100) 15Graph 2.4. Exports of services (volumes; 2008=100) 15Graph 2.5. Estimate of the Greek competitiveness gap by year (%) 16Graph 2.6. Estimate of the Greek sector competitiveness 16Graph 2.7. Institutional quality indicators for Greece and EU-OECD 16Graph 2.8. FDI in EA countries (average 2000-2007 as % of GDP) 16Graph 4.1. Special plan for arrears' clearance (cumulative) 23Graph 4.2. Implied increase of arrears in 2013 (cumulative) 23Graph 4.3. Stock of general government arrears 23Graph 5.1. Annual change in wages and contributions paid (2012-13) 25Graph 5.2. Monthly debt collection by IKA, 2012-14 25Graph 6.1. Average VAT tax efficiency ratio (2000-2008) 31Graph 6.2. Evolution of VAT tax efficiency ratio 31Graph 8.1. Enrolment of tax and social security debt into the fresh start and basic schemes 35Graph 11.1 labour reform intensity and direction of reforms in EU countries since 2010 50Graph 13.1. Distance to Frontier of Ease of Doing Business (Frontier=100) 54Graph 13.2. Average time for Business Registration (days) 54Graph 13.3. Total Costs (Administrative Burden and Charges) for Business Registration (Euro) 55Graph 13.4. Business Entry (number) 55Graph 14.1. Regulatory barriers in professional services 57iii
Page 2 and 3: Occasional Papers are written by th
Page 5: OUTLINE OF THE REPORTEXECUTIVE SUMM
Page 9: ACKNOWLEDGEMENTSThe report was prep
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Chart 17Graph 11.1 labour reform in
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Chart 18Graph 13.1. Distance to Fro
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4. DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS AND
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4. Debt sustainability analysis and
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4. Debt sustainability analysis and
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Table 12. List of Milestones to be
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ANNEX 2: MACROECONOMIC FORECASTANNE
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ANNEXTable B1: USE AND SUPPLY OF GO
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ANNEXTable C1: FISCAL ACCOUNTS AND
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ANNEX 3: UPDATED PROGRAMME DOCUMENT
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Memorandum of Understanding on Spec
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OCCASIONAL PAPERSOccasional Papers
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No. 46No. 47No. 48No. 49The Western
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No. 80 2011 Pre-accession Economic
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No. 119No. 120No. 121No. 122Possibl
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No. 1582013 Economic and Fiscal Pro
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