Archaeoseismology and Palaeoseismology in the Alpine ... - Tierra
Archaeoseismology and Palaeoseismology in the Alpine ... - Tierra
Archaeoseismology and Palaeoseismology in the Alpine ... - Tierra
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DISCUSSION<br />
Based on detailed field mapp<strong>in</strong>g, <strong>the</strong> February 15, 2003<br />
ground rupture has a classic manifestation of left‐<br />
lateral right‐stepp<strong>in</strong>g en echelon faults. From Suba <strong>in</strong><br />
Dimasalang down to San Pedro <strong>in</strong> Cata<strong>in</strong>gan, ground<br />
rupture features are dom<strong>in</strong>antly right‐stepp<strong>in</strong>g en<br />
echelon faults along 34 o NNW orientation with well‐<br />
formed mole tracks <strong>in</strong> some areas. It has a general<br />
trend of N30 o W to N60 o W that followed <strong>the</strong> pre‐<br />
exist<strong>in</strong>g active fault trace (with deviation <strong>in</strong> some<br />
places) associated with shear stress <strong>and</strong> reflective of<br />
<strong>the</strong> type of local materials. Maximum horizontal<br />
displacement is 163cm with an average of 40cm. The<br />
fissures <strong>and</strong> ground rupture were obviously wider<br />
northwards approach<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> epicentral area offshore<br />
to <strong>the</strong> west of Magcaraguit Isl<strong>and</strong>. Except for <strong>the</strong><br />
observed maximum horizontal displacement <strong>in</strong><br />
Nabangig, <strong>the</strong> horizontal displacement sou<strong>the</strong>astwards<br />
<strong>and</strong>, <strong>the</strong> size of each en echelon fractures as well as <strong>the</strong><br />
width of fault zone from Dimasalang to Cata<strong>in</strong>gan has<br />
an apparent decreas<strong>in</strong>g trend. The total length of <strong>the</strong><br />
mapped onshore ground rupture is approximately 23<br />
km (Fig. 3).<br />
If <strong>the</strong> distribution of aftershocks would suggest to<br />
def<strong>in</strong>e <strong>the</strong> extent of fault<strong>in</strong>g for large earthquakes<br />
(Wilson, 1936; Benioff, 1955) as well small events<br />
(Buwalda <strong>and</strong> St. Am<strong>and</strong>, 1955; Richter, 1955; Brown<br />
<strong>and</strong> Vedder; 1967; McEvilly et al., 1967; Liebermann<br />
<strong>and</strong> Pomeroy, 1970), <strong>the</strong>n <strong>the</strong> aftershock distribution<br />
of <strong>the</strong> February 2003 event would roughly del<strong>in</strong>eate a<br />
rupture length of approximately 54km. More than half<br />
of <strong>the</strong> rupture is apparently offshore.<br />
In terms of <strong>the</strong> relationship between <strong>the</strong> length of<br />
ground rupture <strong>and</strong> earthquake magnitude (Bonilla et<br />
al., 1984; Wells <strong>and</strong> Coppersmith, 1994), assum<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong><br />
February 2003 ground rupture is symmetrical relative<br />
to its epicenter, <strong>the</strong> total ground rupture length would<br />
likewise be around 54 km. If such number is<br />
considered, <strong>the</strong> total magnitude for <strong>the</strong> 2003 event is<br />
M7.1 us<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> empirical relations established by Wells<br />
<strong>and</strong> Coppersmith (1994). This magnitude is much<br />
greater than <strong>the</strong> calculated magnitude both by<br />
PHIVOLCS (2003) <strong>and</strong> USGS (2003) of M6.2. Mapp<strong>in</strong>g<br />
<strong>the</strong> ground rupture <strong>and</strong> correlat<strong>in</strong>g it to seismicity<br />
evidently show that <strong>the</strong> Masbate Fault could produce<br />
major earthquakes.<br />
Fur<strong>the</strong>rmore, through <strong>the</strong> detailed mapp<strong>in</strong>g of <strong>the</strong><br />
2003 event, <strong>the</strong> future ground rupture hazards can be<br />
m<strong>in</strong>imized along <strong>the</strong> Masbate fault, if not be avoided<br />
totally. Consider<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> width of <strong>the</strong> fault zone,<br />
structures to be built <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> future is recommended to<br />
be constructed at least 2m away from <strong>the</strong> trace. For<br />
high risk <strong>and</strong> extremely costly structures like nuclear<br />
reactors or dams, however, at least 20m should be<br />
considered as <strong>the</strong> setback distance tak<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong>to account<br />
<strong>the</strong> observed deviations of <strong>the</strong> ground rupture from<br />
<strong>the</strong> pre‐exist<strong>in</strong>g active fault trace.<br />
Acknowledgements: We are <strong>in</strong>debted to <strong>the</strong> follow<strong>in</strong>g<br />
<strong>in</strong>stitutions <strong>and</strong> <strong>in</strong>dividuals for <strong>the</strong> coord<strong>in</strong>ation, help <strong>and</strong><br />
support dur<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> mapp<strong>in</strong>g activities: The prov<strong>in</strong>cial <strong>and</strong><br />
1 st INQUA‐IGCP‐567 International Workshop on Earthquake Archaeology <strong>and</strong> <strong>Palaeoseismology</strong><br />
11<br />
municipal government of Masbate Isl<strong>and</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>the</strong>ir<br />
constituents. This work was partly supported by <strong>the</strong> Philipp<strong>in</strong>e<br />
National Disaster Coord<strong>in</strong>at<strong>in</strong>g Council Calamity Fund 2003<br />
<strong>and</strong> <strong>the</strong> Seafloor Geodesy Project of Nagoya University<br />
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