Hydrogen Fuel Cell Bus Technology State of the ... - NEXTHYLIGHTS

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Hydrogen Fuel Cell Bus Technology State of the Art Review 4 Capital cost dynamics In this section we analyse stakeholders‟ perspectives on fuel cell bus and bus component costs, in order to analyse the likely evolution of technology costs in the 2010- 2020 period. We interviewed the majority of the players in the fuel cell bus sector. The data collection was based on interview scripts, used as a guide for bilateral interviews held confidentially. The data has been anonymised, aggregated and finally processed in order to provide the outputs summarised in this section and in Section 5.2. We adopted two approaches to analyse bus capital costs: In the Aggregated Approach, stakeholders were asked about their perception of bus cost and cost dynamics (i.e. cost reduction in time due to technology improvements and cost reductions for increasing order volumes). In the Bottom-Up approach the cost structure of fuel cell buses is broken down into its main components. Stakeholders are asked about cost, performance and warranty of each component. 4.1 Aggregated Approach All of the industry stakeholders interviewed agreed on two different but related effects in driving the cost of hybrid fuel cell buses. The first is a pure learning effect in the near term, e.g. in the 2010 – 2015 window, where technology improvement helps drive down costs. Most fuel cell manufacturers are evolving their system generations towards a commercial product. Each evolution brings cost reductions through ease of manufacturing and reduced materials costs. This improvement in time has a significant effect by 2015, when a next generation of fuel cell systems will be available. The second effect is related to the achievement of an early economy of scale beyond 2014 – 2015 (i.e. the achievement of a large volume of sales per year). This vision is reflected by Figure 14, below. 34
Hydrogen Fuel Cell Bus Technology State of the Art Review Million € 2 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 Hybrid Fuel Cell Bus Cost - relation between time and volume Volume per year: 10 - 100 buses Volume per year: 10 - 100 buses Volume per year: 20 - 200 buses 0 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 Industry's Projections Volume per year: 500 - 1,000 buses Figure 14 Cost/volume dynamics over time based on industry‟s perspective. Original data has been anonymised into data intervals. The intervals summarise bus cost projections for different minimum bus sales volume per year. Figures are in millions of Euro (exchange rate assumed: 1€ = 1.4$). Figure 15, below, summarizes the gathered stakeholders‟ cost projections against time only in comparison with the historical data reported in Section 3.3. For comparison purposes, Figure 15 displays the upper bound for the commercial entry of the fuel cell bus technology, which is based on an assumption of an early market in subsidized and environmentally sensitive markets (where e.g. tram systems operate today) and a commercial target as suggested by the members of the Hydrogen Bus Alliance (HBA). The commercial target represents bus costs comparable with the more expensive diesel hybrid buses in the European market. 35
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Hydrogen Fuel Cell Bus Technology State of the ... - NEXTHYLIGHTS

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