Hydrogen Fuel Cell Bus Technology State of the ... - NEXTHYLIGHTS

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Hydrogen Fuel Cell Bus Technology State of the Art Review 6.1.3 Total Cost of Ownership 2018 - 2022 From 2018 to 2022, further cost reductions in fuel cell systems are projected, due to synergies with developments in automotive systems and progressive improvements in bus fuel cell system costs. In the TCO model presented here, it is assumed that FC system costs reduce to between €140 and €350 per kW, based on automotive stack technology, but that warranties remain at 10-12,000 hours (implying more frequent stack replacement). This level is higher than the target price for automotive FC systems, as in practice fuel cell bus systems will be more costly due to more expensive balance of plant and a need to include stack replacement costs to meet the warranty requirements for the stacks. At the lower bound of these fuel cell system prices, the FC Bus can compete on total cost of ownership with hybrid diesel technologies. At the upper bound, there is still some increase in overall ownership costs. This suggests that as the automotive fuel cell sector evolves, fuel cell buses are likely to move to a sustainable, unsubsidized position in the market. This should lead to substantial take-up, particularly given that the analysis presented here does not include a financial allocation for the benefits of reduced noise and air polluting emissions compared with diesel vehicles. It is also worthwhile to note that the fuel cell bus costs projected here are well within the trolley bus cost range, suggesting that the technology can comfortably compete with trolley buses for clean urban routes by 2020. Stack manufacturers developing dedicated bus fuel cell systems also project substantial cost reductions between 2018 and 2022 (provided there is sufficient demand to justify continued development in the period leading up to 2015). These systems will have longer lifetimes and warranties (over 20,000hrs) and lower costs – below €800/kW. At these costs the conclusion above relating to the auto-model should also hold true for the „bus stack only‟ philosophy. 64
Hydrogen Fuel Cell Bus Technology State of the Art Review Euro / km /bus € 2.50 € 2.00 € 1.50 € 1.00 € 0.50 € 0.00 Total Cost Of Ownership (12 years life, 12m platform): comparisons at 2018 - 2022 costs (high FC car take-up) Upper Bound Lower Bound Upper Bound Lower Bound Upper Bound Lower Bound Upper Bound Hybrid Fuel Cell Hybrid Diesel Diesel Trolley Lower Bound Taxes on fuel CO2 price Overhead contact wire network - maintenance Extra maintenance facility costs Bus Maintenance Fee Propulsion-related Replacement cost Untaxed Fuel Cost Overhead contact wire network - Financing Bus Financing and Depreciation Principal Assumptions: Hybrid Fuel Cell bus Fuel cell bus capital cost: 350,000 - 550,000 Euro Fuel cell bus maintenance fee: 20,000 Euro /year Fuel cell system cost: 140 - 350 Euro/kW Fuel cell system specs: 150kW; 10,000 - 12,000 hours warranty Fuel economy: 8 - 9 kg-H2/100km Hydrogen refueling station throughput: 500 - 1,000 kg-H2/day Hydrogen refueling station maintenance fee: 100,000 - 120,000 / year Hydrogen cost at the pump: 4 - 5 Euro/kg Hybrid Diesel bus Bus capital cost: 230,000 - 335,000 Euro Bus maintenance fee: 16,000 - 20,000 Euro /year Fuel economy: 28 - 36 liters / 100km Diesel price: 1.15 Euro / liter (taxed), 0.58 Euro / liter (untaxed) Diesel bus Bus capital cost: 170,000 - 250,000 Euro Bus maintenance fee: 12,700 - 20,000 Euro /year Fuel Economy: 36 - 44 liters/ 100km Diesel price: 1.15 Euro / liter (taxed), 0.58 Euro / liter (untaxed) Trolley bus Bus capital cost: 500,000 - 600,000 Euro Bus maintenance fee : 30,000 - 50,000 Euro /year Overhead wire network cost: 500,000 - 1,000,000 Euro / km Overhead wire network maintenance fee: 3,000 - 30,000 Euro/km/year Overhead wire network life: 20 years Fuel Economy: 187kWh/ 100km Electricity Price: 0.1 Euro / kWh (taxed), 0.085 Euro / KWh (untaxed) Service route: 7km lenght / 30 - 50 buses in service Common Financial Inputs Discount period : 12 years Discount rate: 3.5% Annual mileage: 70,000km (5,000 hours) CO2 price: 30 - 60 Euro/tonne Figure 27 TCO comparisons for technology costs as in 2018 - 2022. In this comparison, the cost of the fuel cell system reflects the existence of a large automotive fuel cell system market, driven by a demand of fuel cell cars (> 10,000 units / year). The bus fuel cell system is assumed to share highly standardised components with the car fuel cell systems and, accordingly, the same warranty (10,000 – 12,000 hours). Figures refer to 150kW hybridisations. 65
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