Hydrogen Fuel Cell Bus Technology State of the ... - NEXTHYLIGHTS

Hydrogen Fuel Cell Bus Technology State of the Art Review
Millions €
Hybrid fuel cell bus capital cost : 2010 - 2030 cost projection summary
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
Averaged costs
2010 - 2014
Averaged costs
2015 - 2018
Costs projections based on a set of
assumptions – please refer to Table 8
Averaged costs
2018 - 2022
Averaged costs
~ 2030
150kW FC bus (2010- 2014)
75kW FC Bus (2010 - 2014)
150kW FC Bus (2015 - 2018)
75kW FC Bus (2015 - 2018)
150kW FC Bus (2018 -2022)
75kW FC Bus (2018-2022)
150kW FC Bus (~ 2030)
75kW FC Bus (~ 2030)
Figure 20 Hybrid fuel cell cost over time as suggested by Figure 15, Figure 16 and
Figure 19. Buses cost is expressed at 2010 money value.
Our survey identified two competing views within the industry on how bus fuel cell
systems might be affected by the evolution of the passenger car segment. These views
can be summarised as it follows:
Dedicated bus stack led:
Fuel cell system manufacturers foresee that specialised systems for buses will
continue to have a role, independent of the car segment. This option would imply
more costly fuel cell systems but with extended warranty – e.g. up to 20,000 hours or
more by 2015/20.
Led by passenger car stack development:
The alternative is to see fuel cell systems sharing highly standardised components
with passenger car stacks. This option would imply cheap fuel cell systems but with
reduced life (as passenger car lifetime requirements are lower than those for heavy
duty buses). This view would favour cheap bus fuel cell systems to be frequently
swapped.
Remark:
According to European bus operators, both philosophies are acceptable as long as they
offer same economic benefit on a total cost of ownership (TCO) basis.
Generally speaking, as bus operators are already used to frequently replacing bus
components, there are no major logistical problems in dealing with less durable fuel cell
systems, provided replacement rates do not exceed one stack swap per year.
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