Hydrogen Fuel Cell Bus Technology State of the ... - NEXTHYLIGHTS

Hydrogen Fuel Cell Bus Technology State of the Art Review
capital cost of the fuel cell bus is taken from the bottom-up analysis performed in Section
5.
Figure 25, Figure 26 and Figure 27 summarise graphically the results of our TCO model
in three time windows:
at current costs of the technology
at the average cost projected by 2015, assuming take up of FC buses in the
hundred‟s leading up to 2015 - this reflects the long dedicated FC bus
development pathway
At the 2015-2020 level, where automotive volumes are assumed to drive down
fuel cell system costs. This represents the passenger car dependent pathway.
Each analysis is considered in turn.
6.1.1 TCO at 2010 - 2014 costs
The first TCO graph, Figure 25, below, clearly illustrates that fuel cell buses are some
way from being commercially viable for bus operators. Even under best case
assumptions, the cost of ownership of a FC bus is over three times that of a basic diesel
bus.
The main factors affecting the cost are the high capital cost, which increases the bus
financing cost, and the cost of replacing components. The component replacement cost
is due to the limited warranty available for fuel cell systems in today‟s buses. With a
warranty of only 12,000 hours and a yearly service of over 5,000 hours, it is necessary
to replace this high cost component every 2.5 years. This is prohibitively expensive. This
problem could be mitigated by operating on less arduous routes, but the main issue is a
need to reduce the fuel cell system replacement cost and increase the lifetime of the
system itself.
The graph also illustrates the competition between today‟s incumbent technologies. The
diesel hybrid is close in TCO terms to the diesel bus but is not yet a genuinely
competitive alternative. Despite this, the technology is seeing considerable traction in
the market, which suggests there is a genuine commercial driver for environmentally
benign technologies.
Trolley buses show a higher cost of ownership under the route assumptions made here
(7km length, 30-50 buses) due to the cost of overhead infrastructure and to high
maintenance fee. The capital cost figures reflect the cost range in the western European
market.
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