Hydrogen Fuel Cell Bus Technology State of the ... - NEXTHYLIGHTS

Hydrogen Fuel Cell Bus Technology State of the Art Review
Costs 2010 - 2014
The bottom up approach was able to reproduce the cost range currently observed in the
market, based on the data above. The main cost component is the capital cost of the
fuel cell system itself.
The second main component increasing the cost of the bus is the combination of factors
added by bus OEMs in manufacturing the buses, which includes a risk premium, nonrecurring
engineering and other costs and additional labour required to hand build the
FC buses.
These two factors represent the vast majority of the additional cost of today‟s FC buses
and hence can be considered the two main barriers to an economically viable capital
cost for FC buses.
Costs from 2015
Figure 16 and Figure 17 suggest whole bus costs lower than €700,000 as early as by
2015/8 and not necessary in conjunction with a large demand of automotive FC
systems.
According to Figure 16 and Figure 17, the cost components with the greatest potential to
reduce in time are the cost of fuel cell system itself, the OEM investment costs and the
additional labour required to install a hybrid electric drivetrain and a fuel cell/H2 system.
Stakeholders expect most of the extra costs currently priced by OEMs (such eventual
risk premium, extra labour costs etc.) to fall as the market experiences standardisation
of the hybrid manufacturing process and the consolidation of an early market for fuel cell
buses. As volumes increase, these costs can be spread over more vehicles and there is
scope to create efficiencies within the manufacturing process. In addition, as the product
gains more exposure to the market, the risks associated with the product are reduced
and with it the risk premiums for the product.
Stakeholders‟ perception of fuel cell system cost evolution through time and through
increases in volume is illustrated in Figure 18 below. The main FC manufacturing
stakeholders identified learning and volume effects as different but interacting forces in
driving FC costs through time.
Breakthroughs in the durability of fuel cell systems are expected to greatly reduce costs
in the next few years, thanks to reduced warranty costs. The warranty costs faced by the
manufacturers (essentially the stack refurbishment costs) are fully internalised in the
whole cost of the fuel cell system. This cost is currently a considerable part and may
represent up to 40% of the whole cost of the fuel cell, according to stakeholder
feedback. Improvements in the durability of fuel cells may therefore considerably lower
the cost of the warranty even in absence of a large bus demand. This is summarised in
Figure 18, below, in the time window 2010 – 2013.
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