Hydrogen Fuel Cell Bus Technology State of the ... - NEXTHYLIGHTS

Hydrogen Fuel Cell Bus Technology State of the Art Review
6.1.2 Total Cost of Ownership in 2015 - 2018
The next graph (Figure 26, below) shows the TCO for the 2015 – 2018 period, by which
time next generation of fuel cell systems will have reduced FC costs considerably. A
limited deployment of FC buses before this period is assumed to have increased the
confidence and experience of the bus manufacturers, reducing the premiums for
additional labour and general project risk.
The graph illustrates that under lower bound assumptions, the fuel cell bus cost is
approaching the upper bound of costs for diesel hybrid and diesel bus operations. The
lower range of the TCO is well within the range of ownership costs for a trolley bus
system.
The TCO analysis shows that the FC bus can offer lower overall fuel costs, at the
current taxed cost of diesel, due to higher FC bus efficiencies (note that this assumes no
tax on hydrogen fuel, the sensitivity to which is explored later). The upper bound by
contrast is well outside these ranges, suggesting an ownership cost approx. twice that of
diesel bus alternatives (such as diesel hybrid and trolley buses).
The main difference between the upper and lower bound is the assumptions on the cost
of the FC bus and associated fuel cells. In the lower bound the FC cost is €850/kW and
the bus has a cost of €500,000. This is a very optimistic target and will only be achieved
with a considerable deployment commitment to FC bus technology prior to 2015. FC
manufacturers suggest that volume orders of hundreds of buses would be required to
unlock savings towards this level by 2015 17 .
The upper bound suggests a FC bus cost of approx. €950,000 which is achievable even
for small orders in 2013, and hence is a very conservative upper bound. Hence there is
good confidence that the TCO for FC buses will lie in the range suggested by 2015.
We can conclude that by 2015 - 2018 FC buses are unlikely to offer a commercially
attractive alternative to diesel and diesel hybrid buses (even with a taxation benefit for
hydrogen fuel). The technology will require additional subsidy beyond 2015 if significant
volumes are to come forward in conventional urban bus routes. It is, however, likely that
the TCO will have improved considerably from today‟s state of the art, to the point where
the TCO lies between 1.5 and 2 times the cost of operating a typical diesel hybrid bus.
When competing on environmentally sensitive routes where a trolley bus would
otherwise be deployed, fuel cell buses at the lower bound of costs could achieve
ownership cost parity. This is particularly true for long sub-urban routes where the high
cost of the overhead cable networks will be prohibitive.
17 Note that stack manufacturers would not provide stacks at these prices during this volume
order phase pre-2015, rather the volume orders would unlock the potential to offer FC’s at this
price from 2015 onwards.
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