Hydrogen Fuel Cell Bus Technology State of the ... - NEXTHYLIGHTS

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€ millions Hydrogen Fuel Cell Bus Technology State of the Art Review 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 Bus Capital Costs: hystorical data and stakeholder perspective (€, millions) Historical data Industry's Projections Figure 15 Industry perception on cost evolution in time (as in Table 3.2) in comparison with the historical data reported in section 3.1. Exchange rate assumed (2010 - 2020): €1= $1.4. Figure 14 and Figure 15 suggest that a hybrid fuel cell bus cost below €700,000 is achievable. The more optimistic stakeholders see that this could be achieved before 2015, provided there is sufficient volume of demand pre-2015, whilst the more cautious stakeholders (typically from mainstream bus OEMs) would see this point between 2015 and 2020. This conclusion is also supported by the bottom-up analysis of the problem, which suggests rapid cost reduction may be available (see Figure 16, below). 36
Hydrogen Fuel Cell Bus Technology State of the Art Review 4.2 Bottom-Up Approach – breaking down the cost structure We identified 8 components in the fuel cell bus cost structure. Table 7, below, summarises the responses obtained from the stakeholders interviewed. Table 7 Fuel Cell Bus cost break-down in time and volume according to stakeholders‟ perspective (exchange rate assumed: €1 = $1.4) Components Chassis and Body Fuel Cell System Indicative cost 2010 - 2014 (2010 €) ~ €140,000 - €215,000 / bus ~ €3,000 – €6,000/kW Cost varies according to manufacturer and FC rated power. The cost range reflects market data for system over 70kW. Remarks: 5 years or 10-15,000h warranty range Indicative cost 2015 and beyond (2010 €) ~ €140,000 - €215,000 / bus Two philosophies exist, depending on automotive volumes. Please note that there is not a consensus within the industry on this issue yet. High Auto FC take-up: €140 - €360 / kW for more than 10,000 FC cars / year. The fuel cell system is assumed to be standardised for car applications, with max10,000 hours warranty Bus based markets ≤ €860 – €1,000/ kW for ≥ 100 - 500 buses / year and ~20,000 hours warranty Up to €2,150 / kW if the market fails to achieve volume (e.g.
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