Hydrogen Fuel Cell Bus Technology State of the ... - NEXTHYLIGHTS

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Hydrogen Fuel Cell Bus Technology State of the Art Review € / kW € 4,000 € 3,500 € 3,000 € 2,500 € 2,000 € 1,500 € 1,000 € 500 Fuel Cell System cost in time - step-function-like representation Learning Effects (breakthrough in cell durability) Volume ~ low 100's buses (bulk procurements) Volume ~ low 1,000's buses and/or large automotive market (~ 10,000 cars/year) € 0 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 Figure 18 Fuel cell systems cost as a function of time and volume according to stakeholders‟ perspective (sales volume refers to the global market). The figure schematically plots the data reported in Table 3.3. The figures by 2015 assume 20,000 hour warranties whilst the figures by 2020 assume that the fuel cell system is standardised for car applications (10,000 hours warranty). Figures for 2010 – 2014 apply for fuel cell systems bigger than 100kW only. Cost figures are expressed at 2010 money value. In volume terms, the cost of a bus fuel cell system is expected to reduce to approximately €850 – 1,000/kW given a demand of a few hundreds of buses per year and for warranties up to 20,000 hours. This is summarised in Figure 18 in the intermediate time window between 2013 and 2017. Further cost reduction of the fuel cell system is ultimately envisaged, but this will require an automotive fuel cell market with a large demand of fuel cell cars (> 10,000 cars/year), reaching costs as low as €140 - €360/kW. These figures assume that fuel cell buses can be powered with a fuel cell system sharing highly standardised components with car fuel cell systems. Accordingly, the figures assume of warranty of roughly 10,000hours.This is summarised in Figure 18 in the time window beyond 2015. The cost of bus fuel cell system, however, is likely to reduce further beyond 2015 also independently to large automotive volume, due to an increasing optimization of the technology and standardisation of the manufacturing process. 42
Hydrogen Fuel Cell Bus Technology State of the Art Review 4.3 Outlook to 2030 The bottom-up analysis of the hybrid fuel cell bus cost can be extended to 2030 in a similar fashion to that described above. However, it should be noted that in looking out to 2030, the cost of hybrid drivetrain components becomes much more challenging for stakeholders to predict. Figure 19, below, summarises the key results from this analysis. The capital cost of hydrogen buses is expected to reduce further by 2030 as some cost components such as extra labour and the risk premium costs are ultimately envisaged to disappear. Hybrid fuel cell buses, however, are not expected to reach today‟s capital cost level of diesel buses, as fundamentally the hybrid fuel cell architecture requires extra components on top of the basic diesel bus architecture. The cost for hybrid fuel cell buses in 2025-2030 can be also estimated by pricing these extra components according to 2020-2022‟s figures. Using these assumptions, fuel cell buses are expected to ultimately cost between €100,000 and €200,000 more than a basic diesel bus and approx. €50,000 - €100,000 more than the cost level expected for diesel hybrid buses by 2030. € (Thousands) Hybridised fuel cell buses: cost break-down outlook to 2030 € 400 € 300 € 200 € 100 € 0 150kW hybridisation 75kW hybridisation Hybrid fuel cell bus, outlook to 2030 Diesel Bus (2030) Diesel hybrid Bus (2030) Diesel hydrod bus (projection) Basic diesel bus Power Electronics and Motors Hydrogen Storage System Energy Storage system FC Cooling System Fuel Cell System Chassis and Body Figure 19 Break-down of the cost of a hybridised fuel cell bus according to stakeholders‟ projections for ~ 2030. It is modelled on a hybrid fuel cell bus based on a 12m platform bus, powered by a 150kW or 75kW fuel cell system. The two hybridisations are compared to today‟s diesel bus cost level and the cost level expected for diesel hybrid buses by approx. 2015 - 2020. Buses cost is expressed at 2010 money value. 43
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