Hydrogen Fuel Cell Bus Technology State of the ... - NEXTHYLIGHTS
Hydrogen Fuel Cell Bus Technology State of the ... - NEXTHYLIGHTS
Hydrogen Fuel Cell Bus Technology State of the ... - NEXTHYLIGHTS
Create successful ePaper yourself
Turn your PDF publications into a flip-book with our unique Google optimized e-Paper software.
<strong>Hydrogen</strong> <strong>Fuel</strong> <strong>Cell</strong> <strong>Bus</strong> <strong>Technology</strong> <strong>State</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Art Review<br />
6.1.3 Total Cost <strong>of</strong> Ownership 2018 - 2022<br />
From 2018 to 2022, fur<strong>the</strong>r cost reductions in fuel cell systems are projected, due to<br />
synergies with developments in automotive systems and progressive improvements in<br />
bus fuel cell system costs. In <strong>the</strong> TCO model presented here, it is assumed that FC<br />
system costs reduce to between €140 and €350 per kW, based on automotive stack<br />
technology, but that warranties remain at 10-12,000 hours (implying more frequent stack<br />
replacement). This level is higher than <strong>the</strong> target price for automotive FC systems, as in<br />
practice fuel cell bus systems will be more costly due to more expensive balance <strong>of</strong> plant<br />
and a need to include stack replacement costs to meet <strong>the</strong> warranty requirements for <strong>the</strong><br />
stacks.<br />
At <strong>the</strong> lower bound <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>se fuel cell system prices, <strong>the</strong> FC <strong>Bus</strong> can compete on total<br />
cost <strong>of</strong> ownership with hybrid diesel technologies. At <strong>the</strong> upper bound, <strong>the</strong>re is still some<br />
increase in overall ownership costs.<br />
This suggests that as <strong>the</strong> automotive fuel cell sector evolves, fuel cell buses are likely to<br />
move to a sustainable, unsubsidized position in <strong>the</strong> market. This should lead to<br />
substantial take-up, particularly given that <strong>the</strong> analysis presented here does not include<br />
a financial allocation for <strong>the</strong> benefits <strong>of</strong> reduced noise and air polluting emissions<br />
compared with diesel vehicles.<br />
It is also worthwhile to note that <strong>the</strong> fuel cell bus costs projected here are well within <strong>the</strong><br />
trolley bus cost range, suggesting that <strong>the</strong> technology can comfortably compete with<br />
trolley buses for clean urban routes by 2020.<br />
Stack manufacturers developing dedicated bus fuel cell systems also project substantial<br />
cost reductions between 2018 and 2022 (provided <strong>the</strong>re is sufficient demand to justify<br />
continued development in <strong>the</strong> period leading up to 2015). These systems will have<br />
longer lifetimes and warranties (over 20,000hrs) and lower costs – below €800/kW.<br />
At <strong>the</strong>se costs <strong>the</strong> conclusion above relating to <strong>the</strong> auto-model should also hold true for<br />
<strong>the</strong> „bus stack only‟ philosophy.<br />
64