Hydrogen Fuel Cell Bus Technology State of the ... - NEXTHYLIGHTS
Hydrogen Fuel Cell Bus Technology State of the ... - NEXTHYLIGHTS
Hydrogen Fuel Cell Bus Technology State of the ... - NEXTHYLIGHTS
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<strong>Hydrogen</strong> <strong>Fuel</strong> <strong>Cell</strong> <strong>Bus</strong> <strong>Technology</strong> <strong>State</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Art Review<br />
Euro / Km / <strong>Bus</strong><br />
Total Cost Of Ownership: hybrid fuel cell buses in comparison with diesel buses<br />
(values as for 2018-22 cost projections, untaxed hydrogen price at <strong>the</strong> pump: €4-5/kg )<br />
2.0<br />
1.8<br />
1.6<br />
1.4<br />
1.2<br />
1.0<br />
0.8<br />
0.6<br />
0.4<br />
0.2<br />
0.0<br />
Hybrid fuel cell buses @ ~ 2020 Diesel buses @ different diesel prices<br />
Green <strong>Hydrogen</strong> cost premium (if at<br />
€8/kg, e.g. assuming electrolysis from<br />
excess wind capacity)<br />
Taxes on diesel (€0.57/litre)<br />
Diesel bus TCO @ untaxed diesel fuel<br />
price = €2/litre<br />
Diesel bus TCO @ untaxed diesel fuel<br />
price = €1.5/litre<br />
Diesel bus TCO @ untaxed diesel fuel<br />
price = €1/litre<br />
Diesel bus TCO @ untaxed diesel fuel<br />
price = €0.58/litre<br />
Hybrid <strong>Fuel</strong> <strong>Cell</strong> (2018-2022) 75kW<br />
Hybrid <strong>Fuel</strong> <strong>Cell</strong> (2018-2022) 150kW<br />
Figure 30 TCO comparison between hybrid fuel cell and basic diesel buses as for 2018<br />
– 2022 cost assumption for different taxed diesel fuel prices (averaged values). The<br />
analysis suggests TCO parity for diesel fuel prices <strong>of</strong> approx. €2/litre, assuming a<br />
hydrogen cost at <strong>the</strong> pump <strong>of</strong> €4-5/kg and no taxation on <strong>the</strong> fuels. The figure also<br />
describes how <strong>the</strong> use <strong>of</strong> green hydrogen (derived from e.g. electricity derived from<br />
renewable sources) may imply a fur<strong>the</strong>r cost premium on top <strong>of</strong> buses‟ TCO (left hand<br />
side <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> picture). Assuming a green hydrogen cost at <strong>the</strong> pump <strong>of</strong> €8/kg 18 , for<br />
example, TCO parity is still achievable if taxes on diesel are included (e.g. for a final<br />
diesel fuel prices <strong>of</strong> approx. €2.5/litre).<br />
Remark:<br />
A recent EU coalition study into hydrogen for passenger cars 19 concludes that<br />
hydrogen costs (untaxed) at <strong>the</strong> pump below 5€/kg are feasible beyond 2020. As this<br />
refers to higher pressure filling that is unlikely to be required for buses, this suggests<br />
even lower hydrogen costs can be achieved.<br />
Looking at <strong>the</strong> medium-long term, <strong>the</strong> study also concluded that hydrogen is likely to be<br />
produced by a broad technology mix which would ultimately deliver zero carbon<br />
hydrogen by approximately 2050.<br />
Looking at <strong>the</strong> short or medium term (2010 - 2025), however, green hydrogen is likely<br />
to cost up to two times more than hydrogen from conventional technologies („brown‟<br />
hydrogen).<br />
18<br />
Based on Industry projections for wind derived green hydrogen costs in 2020 supplied during<br />
<strong>the</strong> project.<br />
19<br />
A Portfolio <strong>of</strong> Power-trains for Europe: a fact-based analysis - The Role <strong>of</strong> Battery Electric<br />
Vehicles, Plug-in Hybrids and <strong>Fuel</strong> <strong>Cell</strong> Electric Vehicles, McKinsey & Company, available at<br />
http://www.europeanclimate.org/documents/Power_trains_for_Europe.pdf<br />
68
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