Exceptional Argentina Di Tella, Glaeser and Llach - Thomas Piketty

negative correlation between the proportion of " free-traders" and FPV votes by district. It may
be the case that, irrespective of their classification, individuals in more agricultural districts are
less likely to vote for the FPV, independently of their source of income. In that case, f
d
and ε
d
are negatively correlated and our results would be unable to distinguish between individual and
district-level political attitudes. However, even if that is the case, the fact that the aggregate source
of income affects political attitudes at the district level is also consistent with the predictions of our
model: service workers will support policies that increase the aggregate income of their district
and boost the demand for their services.
One might suspect that these differences in political attitudes are driven exclusively by the
heterogeneity in educational attainment across districts. However, if we classify individuals solely
on the basis of their educational attainment, we obtain strikingly different results. The estimated
probability for unskilled individuals (no secondary education) falls drastically, while the
probability for skilled workers remains almost constant. Unskilled individuals employed in the
primary sector were less likely to vote for the FPV in 2009, while skilled individuals employed in
the secondary sector partially compensated for the loss of votes from skilled individuals employed
in the tertiary sector.
2007 Presidential Election 2009 Legislative Election
Coef. S.E. 95% CI. Coef. S.E. 95% CI.
Skilled 0.318 0.031 0.257 0.379 0.288 0.037 0.215 0.360
Unskilled 0.662 0.036 0.590 0.733 0.253 0.043 0.169 0.337
For comparison purposes, we present the maximum likelihood results for the specification:
Φ β +σε . Notice how similar the estimated probabilities are in the two specifications.
( )
2007 Presidential Election 2009 Legislative Election
Coef β S.E.
i
Φ ( β i
) Coef β S.E.
i
Φ ( β i
)
Skilled -0.491 0.087 0.312 -0.569 0.110 0.285
Unskilled 0.435 0.099 0.668 -0.698 0.138 0.243
Sigma 0.207 0.073 0.262 0.062
This provides support for our claim that the source of income is a key determinant of individuals'
political attitudes. In particular, individuals with vested interests in the primary sector and skilled
individuals in the tertiary sector support free-trade policies. Individuals whose source of income is
linked to the manufacturing sector support protectionist policies. Moreover, this exercise also
suggests that individuals took into account the ideological and political stance of the FPV with
respect to protectionism. Those who opposed protectionism were less likely to vote for the FPV in
2009 than in 2007.