WAR MEMOIRS OF DAVID LLOYD GEORGE 1917

VATICAN AND KUHLMANN PEACE MOVES 307
Although neither I nor any member of the Cabinet saw
any of these telegrams that led up to the Spanish Government's
communique, they felt that the communication itself
was a matter of sufficient consequence to call for the most
careful examination. Mr. Balfour's view of the matter was
expressed in the memorandum he submitted to me on
September 20th, which ran as follows:
Secret.
PEACE NEGOTIATIONS
From the Foreign Office point of view we have now reached
the most critical and difficult stages of the War. When hostilities
began, diplomatic relations between the belligerents were, of
course, completely severed; when hostilities are over, the regular
machinery of diplomacy will, of course, be reestablished. But we
are now in the middle stage, when fighting has lost none of its
violence, when all the natural channels of diplomacy are still
choked, but when, nevertheless, some, at least, of the belligerents
are endeavouring to start informal conversations about terms of
peace.
From Austria, Bulgaria, and Turkey, hesitating and inconclusive
advances have thus been made to us and, I believe, to
France also. But there is this significant difference between the
case of Austria and the cases of Bulgaria and Turkey — in the
case of Austria, the advances have come from the highest quarters
in the established Government — in the cases of Bulgaria and
Turkey, on the other hand, the advances have been made on behalf
of rebels, or would-be rebels, against the Powers that be.
Now would-be rebels are dangerous guides. They are apt to
take too rosy a view of their powers and prospects. They have the
sanguine enthusiasm of the gambler, and though they sometimes
make a fortune they more commonly lose one. This consideration
would naturally induce us to take the Austrian proposals more
seriously than those of her two Eastern allies. But, on the other
hand, all the indications appear to show that Austria is so tightly
bound to Germany, that, as things are at present, she could do