WAR MEMOIRS OF DAVID LLOYD GEORGE 1917

CAMPAIGN OF THE MUD: PASSCHENDAELE 415
once — during this period by the British Armies. I quote this
as a proof of what our armies are capable of.
Our offensive in front of Ypres continues to make good progress.
The enemy is undoubtedly considerably shaken and the
ground we have already gained gives us considerable advantages
and renders us less dependent on weather in following up our success
further. Our troops are elated and confident; those on the
enemy's side cannot but be depressed and we have good evidence
of it.
In the circumstances it is beyond question that our offensive
must be pursued as long as possible. I have every hope of being
able to continue it for several weeks still and of gaining results
which will add very greatly to the enemy's losses in men and morale,
and place us in a far better position to resume an offensive in
the spring.
Amongst other advantages, we shall end this year's campaign
with practically all the observation points originally held by the
enemy in our possession — a very important consideration.
The considerable wastage imposed on the enemy by a continued
offensive may be expected to leave at the end of the year but a
small balance, if any, of the 500,000 men in the reserves he now
has available, and he is likely to commence the new year with only
some 500,000 to 600,000 reserves at his disposal, including the
whole of the 1920 class, which, judging by experience of the 1918
class, will be of low fighting value. At the normal rate of wastage,
therefore, since the 1921 class will not be fit to take the field next
year, the enemy's man power will be running out next May or June
at the latest. This is a factor of first-rate importance, and no
alleviation of this respect would be gained by a return of prisoners
from Russia if the latter should make peace, since this would be
far more than counterbalanced by the loss of the great numbers
of Russian prisoners now available for labour in Germany.
Then came the usual stuff from the Charteris stillroom
about the inferior quality and the shattered condition of the
German divisions: