Powertrain 2020 - The Future Drives Electric (PDF ... - Roland Berger

More documents

Recommendations

Info

8 | Study These developments have resulted in some modest but significant changes in the business landscape. New players have appeared along the new mobility value chain: battery suppliers such as A123 and LiTec, OEMs such as BYD or Tesla, distributors such as Nice in the UK. Utilities such as RWE and EDF are providing the recharging infrastructure. New types of mobility providers such as Better Place have emerged on the scene. Together, these players are challenging the way that the automobile business has traditionally operated. Incumbent OEMs such as Daimler, GM, Mitsubishi, Toyota and Renault have also recognized the change in the wind. The major players have announced the launch of pure EVs and PHEVs by 2012 at the latest. The present study extends our analytical timeframe up to the year 2020. This allows us to present our insights into longer-term developments. It also enables us to focus on the second step towards powertrain electrification – PHEVs and pure EVs. Our aim in the study is to shed some light on a number of pressing issues. First of all, how will regulatory standards on vehicle emissions develop in the foreseeable future? Second, what are the longer-term technological options available to OEMs for meeting emissions requirements? Third, what is the market potential for pure EVs and PHEVs in key automotive markets? And finally, what impact will this have on the current automotive value chain – what new players will emerge, how will business models change, and what will OEMs' core activities and competences be in the future? The potential impact of these developments on OEMs and suppliers cannot be overstated. How they decide to prepare for these challenges today will determine their success in the future. Once again, as was the case two years ago, the automotive industry finds itself at a crossroads. But this time the stakes are even higher.
9 | "Powertrain 2020 – The Future Drives Electric" 1. Global policy and regulatory framework 1.1 Global policy On July 8, 2009 at the G8 Summit in Italy, all eight country leaders – including US President Obama and Chancellor Merkel of Germany – pledged to limit any increase in global temperature to just 2°C compared to preindustrial levels. They emphasized that industrialized countries should take a leading role in combating climate change, and strive to convince major non-OECD countries such as China and India to join them in this endeavor. The World Energy Outlook 2008 published by the International Energy Agency (IEA) forms a valuable contribution to the ongoing debate. The report outlines a number of different scenarios for the future development of global CO 2 emissions and their impact on the rise in global temperature. Its "Reference Scenario" describes what will happen if business continues as usual, extrapolating from current trends and efforts. The result? A 45% increase in annual CO 2 emissions by 2030, most likely leading to a global temperature rise far in excess of 5°C. The IEA report also presents an alternative scenario: "Scenario 450." This scenario is based on targets for global emissions and emissions by individual sectors and regions that would limit the increase in global temperature by 2030 to roughly 2°C. These targets would mean not only avoiding the increase forecast in the Reference Scenario, but also bringing global CO 2 emissions down to below today's levels.
Page 1: Michael Valentine-Urbschat, Dr. Wol
Page 4 and 5: 2 | Study Contents Executive summar
Page 6 and 7: 4 | Study 1. High-power and high-en
Page 8 and 9: 6 | Study Introduction There can be
Page 12 and 13: 10 | Study To achieve this ambitiou
Page 14 and 15: 12 | Study 1.2 Regulatory framework
Page 16 and 17: 14 | Study The Chinese domestic aut
Page 18 and 19: 16 | Study 1.2.2 Support for resear
Page 20 and 21: 18 | Study 1.2.3 Steering demand In
Page 22 and 23: 20 | Study 1.2.4 Authorities and lo
Page 24 and 25: 22 | Study In Japan, Honda's new mi
Page 26 and 27: 24 | Study Full hybrid powertrains
Page 28 and 29: 26 | Study Most of the technologies
Page 30 and 31: 28 | Study
Page 32 and 33: 30 | Study If most of the powertrai
Page 34 and 35: 32 | Study OEMs selling in the Euro
Page 36 and 37: 34 | Study PHEVs can take a number
Page 38 and 39: 36 | Study The new versions will mo
Page 40 and 41: 38 | Study For high-end application
Page 42 and 43: 40 | Study To follow the path of le
Page 44 and 45: 42 | Study Battery charger When an
Page 46 and 47: 44 | Study But Li-Ion batteries hav
Page 48 and 49: 46 | Study The exact chemical make-
Page 50 and 51: 48 | Study Battery costs will mainl
Page 52 and 53: 50 | Study To summarize, battery te
Page 54 and 55: 52 | Study 2.2.3.5 Conclusions As w
Page 56 and 57: 54 | Study 3. Scenarios for the dev
Page 58 and 59: 56 | Study 3.2.1 Meeting customers'
Page 60 and 61:
58 | Study Model 2: "Like gas stati
Page 62 and 63:
60 | Study The first generation of
Page 64 and 65:
62 | Study 3.2.2 Attractive pricing
Page 66 and 67:
64 | Study Driver 3b: Battery price
Page 68 and 69:
66 | Study For all intents and purp
Page 70 and 71:
68 | Study Given these uncertaintie
Page 72 and 73:
70 | Study 4. Impact on the mobilit
Page 74 and 75:
72 | Study 4.2.2 Raw materials for
Page 76 and 77:
74 | Study At the same time, key Eu
Page 78 and 79:
76 | Study 4.4.1 Financial burden a
Page 80 and 81:
78 | Study 4.5 Infrastructure and e
Page 82 and 83:
80 | Study 4.7 Summary The coming c
Page 84 and 85:
82 | Study What does the story of t
Page 86 and 87:
84 | Study But, in addition to all
Page 88 and 89:
86 | Study Synthesis: Define your g
Page 90 and 91:
88 | Study Step 3: Define your posi
Page 92 and 93:
90 | Study > In early phases, autom
Page 94 and 95:
92 | Study Implementation and timin
Page 96 and 97:
94 | Study Co-authors Ralf Kalmbach
Page 98:
96 | Study Co-authors Jesus Salvado
show all

Powertrain 2020 - The Future Drives Electric (PDF ... - Roland Berger

You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles

Delete template?

Save as template?