Powertrain 2020 - The Future Drives Electric (PDF ... - Roland Berger

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"Powertrain 2020 – The Future Drives Electric"
NORTH AMERICA
In 2020, North American volume models will on average still be larger and
more powerful than European models. However, in terms of technology
they will probably have caught up with Europe.
Four-valve cylinder heads with variable valve timing, turbochargers and
downsizing, direct injection technologies, double-clutch transmissions and
automatic gearboxes with six or more speeds will most likely become standard
in the US market. Only stratified direct injection and cylinder deactivation
are likely to have very different fitment rates from those seen in Europe.
Lean combustion GDI will have a lower penetration rate due to lower fuel
qualities. At the same time, cylinder deactivation will be more common
than in Europe – larger pickups and SUVs are likely to use bigger engines
than in Europe, but with deactivation technology to compensate for some
of the higher CO 2 emissions.
Three-cylinder engines in general will remain a niche application in North
America. Mid-size vehicles will use four-cylinder engines almost exclusively.
Large conventional models and compact SUVs will use turbocharged fourcylinder
engines at the entry level and will rely on six-cylinder engines for
high-end power needs. In large SUVs and pickups, six-cylinder engines will
be standard.