Powertrain 2020 - The Future Drives Electric (PDF ... - Roland Berger

54 |
Study
3. Scenarios for the development of the
EV and PHEV market
3.1 Introduction
Forecasting the development of the market for EVs and PHEVs is a tricky
business. As with any disruptive technology that has yet to fully hit the
market, predictions are dangerous. What makes them even more difficult in
the case of EVs and PHEVs is the fact that governments are fundamentally
involved in making the market change happen – and the actions of governments
are particularly hard to predict, especially on a global basis.
Despite these reservations, experts generally agree that EVs and PHEVs will
represent one of the key options for individual mobility in the future. Where
there is less agreement is in the timing of this development.
We saw in Chapter 1 how governments play a key role in the market development
for EVs and PHEVs. To fulfill their commitments to fight climate
change, they are steering both the supply and demand side. The World
Climate Conference in Copenhagen in December 2009 will shed more light
on how exactly they intend to do this. Action will be needed if the leading
OECD countries are to live up to their "pioneering role." The EU in particular
will have to further tighten its CO 2 targets for 2020, with the US and
Japan following suit. If governments fail to proactively influence the markets
for EVs and PHEVs, things will inevitably move much slower.