Powertrain 2020 - The Future Drives Electric (PDF ... - Roland Berger

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"Powertrain 2020 – The Future Drives Electric"
We believe that in 2020, HCCI will still be a niche technology used only
in a small number of displacement engines, typically large ones. Most other
engines will rely on advanced direct injection systems.
The full efficiency gain of more than 40% can only be achieved in larger
engines that rarely operate in high engine loads. Smaller engines applying
the same technology portfolio will not achieve the full saving potential outlined
above. The lower amount of power and torque available requires such
engines to operate at higher engine load levels, which have less efficiency
improvement potential.
As discussed above, future gasoline engines need to not only improve
efficiency, but also meet stricter exhaust gas emission requirements. In
most cases this should be possible without more expensive exhaust gas
after-treatment. Only engines with stratified direct injection and lean
combustion will find it difficult to meet the stricter NO x limits.
Compared to gasoline powertrains, diesel powertrains will most likely have
less potential to reduce CO 2 emission. Best-in-class diesel engines in 2020
will be about 30% more efficient than the standard diesel engines today.