Powertrain 2020 - The Future Drives Electric (PDF ... - Roland Berger

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Introduction
There can be no doubt that the current economic crisis will have a lasting
impact on the automotive industry, possibly reshaping its landscape entirely.
But the jury is still out on what the effect of current turmoil will be on one of
the most important developments in the industry: powertrain electrification.
Will the crisis put the entire process on hold, or give it new impetus?
As sales decline in major markets worldwide, OEMs find themselves forced
to realign their product portfolio and production footprint. In many ways this
is the ideal time for them to incorporate new technology into their products.
Moreover, the financial support being provided by governments to OEMs
around the world is at least in part linked to specific investments in the
development of new propulsion technologies.
Of course, automotive manufacturers have been aware of the need for
powertrain electrification for quite some time. But their strategy in the past
has been to introduce the new technology little by little, supporting it with
stable financial returns from their regular business.
The current crisis means that this financial basis has been pulled from under
their feet. On top of this, the governments of OECD countries are putting
increasing pressure on OEMs to act as pioneers in the development of
carbon-free road transportation. Technology has also made significant
advances recently. All in all, the time seems ripe for the automotive
industry to rethink its previous slowly-slowly approach.
In our 2007 study "Solving the Powertrain Challenge: The Automotive
Industry at the Crossroads," we examined the challenges facing the automotive
industry in the period up to 2012. Our findings with regard to
powertrain technology still hold true today. Improvements in conventional
technology – including hybridization, the first step towards powertrain
electrification – are sufficient to meet the mid-term emissions standards set
out by current regulations. Indeed, we are already experiencing the massmarket
introduction of technologies such as start-stop systems and engine
downsizing by OEMs.