Powertrain 2020 - The Future Drives Electric (PDF ... - Roland Berger

81 |
"Powertrain 2020 – The Future Drives Electric"
5. How to prepare for the change to come
5.1 Introduction
Amid the uncertainties in electric mobility, one thing is sure: the race to
find the best, or at least the most promising, business strategy is already
underway. For some time now, companies have been trying to position
themselves out in front, preparing themselves for a battle that won't really
get going until 2011/12. By doing so, they are laying the groundwork for
their future success (or failure) in electric mobility.
Some players have been preparing for years, while others are still debating
the possible relevance of electrification for them. Still others are teaming up
with partners to face the future challenges. Time is short, at least for companies
that hope to lead the way in pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids.
The success of hybrid vehicles on the market has shown how difficult it is
for latecomers to gain an edge in this new field of vehicle technology.
Learning from the past: the Toyota Prius case
In January 1997, Toyota announced the launch of the Toyota Eco Project.
The initiative was a response to the long-term environmental challenges
facing the globe and the rise in public awareness of environmental issues.
The company launched the world's first mass-produced hybrid car, the
Prius, in December 1997 in Japan, to coincide with the Kyoto conference
on climate change. Three years later it launched the Prius on other markets,
including the United States.
At the time of its release, most OEMs were skeptical about hybrid vehicles.
They cast doubt on both their technology and their chances of finding a
market. Indeed, hybrid cars have never had it easy. Many experts questioned
the wisdom of increasing the cost and weight of vehicles by adding
a second, electric powertrain. After all, improving conventional technology
would also lead to greater fuel efficiency – at a lower cost.
Yet despite the initial weak sales, Toyota stuck to its guns. In line with its
long-term strategy, the company continued improving the technology base,
launching the second-generation Prius in 2003. And it paid off: In 2008,
more than ten years after its initial market introduction, annual sales were
in excess of 280,000 units worldwide. In May 2008, Toyota announced
that it had sold its one millionth hybrid car. And Toyota dominates the
market for hybrid vehicles, with a market share of more than 70%.