Powertrain 2020 - The Future Drives Electric (PDF ... - Roland Berger

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"Powertrain 2020 – The Future Drives Electric"
> Volume OEMs from the triad markets have more choices. Any of the
four strategies is suitable, depending on the current market position and
resource availability. Some volume OEMs, such as Renault and General
Motors, are first movers that aggressively approach the market with new
technologies and innovative business models. Motivated by declining
sales volumes of ICE vehicles and lacking brand awareness in traditional
segments, they are taking high risks, but the potential rewards are attractive.
A good share of first customers are likely to be former Mercedes,
BMW and Audi drivers. Other volume OEMs position themselves with
low-profile or risk-averse strategies, carefully observing the market
dynamics and developing technologies, but avoiding high up-front investments.
Their first products will likely be more advanced than those
of first movers, but the range of options for uniquely positioning products
and brands will definitely be narrowed down.
> OEMs on emerging markets tend to gravitate toward specialized front
runner strategies, to allow for the possibility of international expansion.
They often cannot catch up in ICE technology, but some providers, such
as Hong Kong-based BYD, have superior capabilities in certain key
EV/PHEV technologies. This can become a possible gateway to penetrating
the European and North American markets.
For powertrain component suppliers, betting on the wrong technology or
holding on too long to the current product portfolio will have a dramatic
impact over the next ten years. EVs and PHEVs will start to replace ICE
models, and market volumes for mechanical components for traditional
gasoline and diesel powertrains will decline. Therefore, it is not a question
of "if", but rather of "how and when" to strengthen or build up competencies
for electrified powertrains and battery technologies.
All other suppliers, in particular those with energy-consuming components
such as brakes, steering and HVAC systems, will also see significant changes
to their product portfolio, although not as radical and as soon as their peers.
EVs and PHEVs will require new product designs and new components with
different packaging, performance and energy consumption characteristics.
Early involvement in developing these components will be the key to successfully
participating in that future market.