Powertrain 2020 - The Future Drives Electric (PDF ... - Roland Berger

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Given these uncertainties, we have developed two different scenarios. Our
first scenario assumes a slower penetration of EVs and PHEVs in the next 5
to 10 years, and rather a stronger demand for smaller, efficient ICE-powered
vehicles. We call this scenario "Downsized mobility."
Our second scenario is rather more optimistic about the development of
e-mobility. It foresees higher oil prices, accelerated battery cost reduction,
stronger government support and a broader product range in the next five
to ten years, making EVs a very attractive alternative by 2020. We call this
scenario "The future drives electric."
"Downsized mobility" reflects the opinion of those experts who foresee a
longer transition period before prices for key components such as batteries
come down, subsidies/tax benefits are implemented by authorities and the
necessary investments in infrastructure are executed. However, even the
more pessimistic experts think that EVs will come in over the longer term.
As mentioned earlier, the debate is not about whether it will happen, but
when.