Powertrain 2020 - The Future Drives Electric (PDF ... - Roland Berger

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"Powertrain 2020 – The Future Drives Electric"
Large/premium vehicles and bigger SUVs are likely to be the only vehicles
enjoying the maximum CO 2 reduction potential for conventional, ICE-based
powertrains, due to their premium positioning. Average CO 2 emissions of
E-segment vehicles (e.g. the BMW 5 series) will fall to about 140 g/km
on average, and those of luxury cars (e.g. the Mercedes S-Class) to about
160 g/km. However, large SUVs are likely to still emit more than 180 g/km
on average.
In the smaller and volume vehicle segments, customers' willingness to pay
for efficiency-boosting technologies will be much lower. Moreover, cost
competition is in general much stronger. As a result, much less new technology
will be used. Cost-intensive technologies such as mild hybrids and
fully variable valve trains will have only limited fitment rates in these segments.
Consequently start-stop, downsizing, and advanced direct injection
systems will have to provide most of the CO 2 emission reductions.
The technologies outlined above will be applied in all the key markets.
However, timing and implementation rate will differ between Europe,
North America, Japan and other geographical areas. We discuss these
differences in detail below.
EUROPE
Europe will strengthen its leading technological position by means of a
strong trend toward downsizing. Three-cylinder engines, both gasoline and
diesel, will most likely become standard in European mid-size vehicles (such
as the VW Golf and Renault Megane) by 2020. Three-cylinder engines are
also likely to be the entry-level motorization for large conventional cars
(such as the Citröen C5 and Opel Insignia) and compact SUVs. Turbo- or
supercharged four-cylinder engines will be used only in the upper performance
range (above 130 hp), while six-cylinder engines will have a very
limited fitment rate in volume car segments.
The result of these developments will be that European gasoline vehicles
will emit 30-40% less CO 2 than today on average. Diesel engine emissions
will fall by 20-30%.
If the powertrain technologies described above are implemented in the
different vehicle segments across Europe, fleet emissions will drop significantly
over the next decade. They are likely to fall below 130 g/km, but
not as far as 95 g/km, the proposed target for 2020. Here we expect to
see a gap of at least 10 g/km that will need to be met by other means.