Powertrain 2020 - The Future Drives Electric (PDF ... - Roland Berger

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To achieve this ambitious goal, all sectors, including power generation and
transportation, would need to make a significant contribution. In the transportation
sector, light-duty vehicles (LDVs) would be particularly strongly
affected. At present, LDVs are the biggest emitters of CO 2 in the transportation
sector, accounting for 44% of total CO 2 emissions.
The average CO 2 emission target for the LDV vehicle stock in OECD
countries outlined in Scenario 450 is 90 g/km by 2030. This is almost
50% below today's level of 176 g/km. The emission target for non-OECD
countries is 110 g/km. The IEA makes this distinction so as to underline
the leading role to be played by industrialized countries.
In terms of new car sales, the European Union, US and Japan must achieve
a dramatic reduction in fleet emissions soon after 2012. They need to act
early because of the significant time lag before new car sales impact on
overall vehicle stock emission figures.
Moreover, significant differences exist between actual, on-road CO 2 emissions
and vehicles' certified values. Certified values are based on a vehicle's
official driving cycle and can differ from the actual levels by as much as
30%, depending on the driving cycle used and the driving and traffic conditions.
Thus the IEA estimates that today's actual average CO 2 emissions per
vehicle for the LDV stock of OECD European countries is 165 g/km.