Powertrain 2020 - The Future Drives Electric (PDF ... - Roland Berger

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"Powertrain 2020 – The Future Drives Electric"
On the grid side, the general assumption is that charging will mainly take
place at night. This would not put additional stress on the system. Indeed,
EVs and PHEVs could be the missing piece in the puzzle – the factor that
makes a further increase in renewable energy possible. In any case, a comprehensive
superfast charging infrastructure would most likely lead to a
further increase in grid load at peak times, i.e. mornings and evenings.
Looking at all the arguments, we do not believe that a comprehensive public
superfast charging infrastructure will emerge in the next five to ten years.
(The charging system developed by TEPCO in Tokyo and currently being
tested with the Mitsubishi iMiEV and Subaru is not a superfast charging
system in the sense described above; power levels are limited to about
100 kW and recharging times are more than 20 minutes.) After 2015,
however, when the second generation of EVs and PHEVs is on the market,
some OEMs and infrastructure operators may be willing to give this option a
go. This is particularly likely if stakeholders and end customers have built up
a certain level of confidence with regard to EVs and the growing customer
need for longer driving distances provides the necessary business case.
An alternative to superfast charging could be exchanging the battery at a
special station. This approach would be very similar to gasoline stations
today in terms of time, with customers swapping the empty battery for a
recharged one instead of charging it themselves. As for superfast charging,
this option is not technically viable today, with the batteries having different
shapes, characteristics, etc. Extensive standardization efforts would be
required on the vehicle battery side in order to make the breakthrough
happen. We do not expect battery changing stations to become widespread
before 2020; extensive investments have already been made in developing
and producing different battery technologies, and OEMs are going to insist
on retaining their existing EV designs. What's more, OEMs would lose
design liberties regarding battery packaging and management.
Model 3: "Charging everywhere," i.e. an infinite number of public
charging points
In Model 3, EVs and PHEVs can be charged wherever they are parked –
at home, at work or in public parking facilities. This is a technically viable
solution even today. Most grids can handle the creation of a large number of
charging points at the roadside or in parking lots without major investment
being necessary, even if these points need to provide higher power levels of
between 10 and 20 kW.