Powertrain 2020 - The Future Drives Electric (PDF ... - Roland Berger

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54 | Study 3. Scenarios for the development of the EV and PHEV market 3.1 Introduction Forecasting the development of the market for EVs and PHEVs is a tricky business. As with any disruptive technology that has yet to fully hit the market, predictions are dangerous. What makes them even more difficult in the case of EVs and PHEVs is the fact that governments are fundamentally involved in making the market change happen – and the actions of governments are particularly hard to predict, especially on a global basis. Despite these reservations, experts generally agree that EVs and PHEVs will represent one of the key options for individual mobility in the future. Where there is less agreement is in the timing of this development. We saw in Chapter 1 how governments play a key role in the market development for EVs and PHEVs. To fulfill their commitments to fight climate change, they are steering both the supply and demand side. The World Climate Conference in Copenhagen in December 2009 will shed more light on how exactly they intend to do this. Action will be needed if the leading OECD countries are to live up to their "pioneering role." The EU in particular will have to further tighten its CO 2 targets for 2020, with the US and Japan following suit. If governments fail to proactively influence the markets for EVs and PHEVs, things will inevitably move much slower.
55 | "Powertrain 2020 – The Future Drives Electric" It is likely that governments will back up their tough targets on the supply side with incentives for customers on the demand side. Incentives are especially important in the initial years of market development: they are a way of getting vehicles off the production lines and onto the roads. 3.2 "Pull" – Making EVs and PHEVs attractive for customers By the beginning of the next decade, car buyers will be able to choose between a wide range of different powertrain technologies: ICEs, hybrids, PHEVs, EVs with range extenders, pure EVs and so on. Before reaching a decision about which option to go for, buyers will no doubt (consciously or subconsciously) compare the different technologies to see how they match up with their own personal requirements. These requirements are essentially their basic mobility needs, price limitations, personal taste and image. For EVs to be successful they must be able to compete on all of these needs. They need to represent an attractive alternative. Whether they are or not depends on a number of key drivers – which we discuss in detail below.
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Michael Valentine-Urbschat, Dr. Wol
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2 | Study Contents Executive summar
Page 6 and 7: 4 | Study 1. High-power and high-en
Page 8 and 9: 6 | Study Introduction There can be
Page 10 and 11: 8 | Study These developments have r
Page 12 and 13: 10 | Study To achieve this ambitiou
Page 14 and 15: 12 | Study 1.2 Regulatory framework
Page 16 and 17: 14 | Study The Chinese domestic aut
Page 18 and 19: 16 | Study 1.2.2 Support for resear
Page 20 and 21: 18 | Study 1.2.3 Steering demand In
Page 22 and 23: 20 | Study 1.2.4 Authorities and lo
Page 24 and 25: 22 | Study In Japan, Honda's new mi
Page 26 and 27: 24 | Study Full hybrid powertrains
Page 28 and 29: 26 | Study Most of the technologies
Page 30 and 31: 28 | Study
Page 32 and 33: 30 | Study If most of the powertrai
Page 34 and 35: 32 | Study OEMs selling in the Euro
Page 36 and 37: 34 | Study PHEVs can take a number
Page 38 and 39: 36 | Study The new versions will mo
Page 40 and 41: 38 | Study For high-end application
Page 42 and 43: 40 | Study To follow the path of le
Page 44 and 45: 42 | Study Battery charger When an
Page 46 and 47: 44 | Study But Li-Ion batteries hav
Page 48 and 49: 46 | Study The exact chemical make-
Page 50 and 51: 48 | Study Battery costs will mainl
Page 52 and 53: 50 | Study To summarize, battery te
Page 54 and 55: 52 | Study 2.2.3.5 Conclusions As w
Page 58 and 59: 56 | Study 3.2.1 Meeting customers'
Page 60 and 61: 58 | Study Model 2: "Like gas stati
Page 62 and 63: 60 | Study The first generation of
Page 64 and 65: 62 | Study 3.2.2 Attractive pricing
Page 66 and 67: 64 | Study Driver 3b: Battery price
Page 68 and 69: 66 | Study For all intents and purp
Page 70 and 71: 68 | Study Given these uncertaintie
Page 72 and 73: 70 | Study 4. Impact on the mobilit
Page 74 and 75: 72 | Study 4.2.2 Raw materials for
Page 76 and 77: 74 | Study At the same time, key Eu
Page 78 and 79: 76 | Study 4.4.1 Financial burden a
Page 80 and 81: 78 | Study 4.5 Infrastructure and e
Page 82 and 83: 80 | Study 4.7 Summary The coming c
Page 84 and 85: 82 | Study What does the story of t
Page 86 and 87: 84 | Study But, in addition to all
Page 88 and 89: 86 | Study Synthesis: Define your g
Page 90 and 91: 88 | Study Step 3: Define your posi
Page 92 and 93: 90 | Study > In early phases, autom
Page 94 and 95: 92 | Study Implementation and timin
Page 96 and 97: 94 | Study Co-authors Ralf Kalmbach
Page 98: 96 | Study Co-authors Jesus Salvado
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