Powertrain 2020 - The Future Drives Electric (PDF ... - Roland Berger

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"Powertrain 2020 – The Future Drives Electric"
Japan may remain out in front in the future, even with its lower penetration
rates for some of the main CO 2 emission reduction technologies. Key
reasons for this superiority are the higher share of partial engine loads in
Japan's driving cycles (10-15 mode and JC08 mode) and the very large share
of gasoline engines – which generally have a higher CO 2 savings potential –
in the country's vehicle fleet.
CHINA, INDIA AND OTHER REGIONS
In India, South America, Southeast Asia and parts of China, low vehicle
prices and low production costs remain more important than efficiency
improvements. In these markets, low-cost powertrains (with engines costing
EUR 600-700 and manual gearboxes costing about EUR 200) will retain a
sizeable market share. The current lack of strict CO 2 emission regulations
means that automakers will not have to make the same level of investments
in reducing fuel consumption and CO 2 emissions as in Triad markets.
Instead, technical improvements will be driven by the introduction of
stricter exhaust gas regulations.
The low-cost approach seen in these markets requires a less complex motor
design and low-cost production technologies. Three- and four-cylinder
engines with cast-iron motor blocks and two-valve cylinder heads will
remain common. Even two-cylinder engines will not be unusual for lowcost
vehicles. Expensive technologies such as turbocharging, variable valve
trains and mild hybrids will only appear in higher-segment vehicles. Even
start-stop will not be standard – although it would be a welcome innovation
in urban driving in these regions, given the high traffic density
and congestion.
Of course, this does not mean that vehicle fleets in these countries will not
improve CO 2 emissions. The level of technology at present is very low, so
efficiency gains of more than 25% are possible. OEMs here can reduce CO 2
emissions by adopting technologies and components that are already standard
in Triad markets today. Thanks to economies of scale, this will involve
only very minor additional costs, if any.
The other factor driving the introduction of new technology in these
markets is export. If manufacturers wish to compete globally, they need
to invest in new, cleaner technology.
2.1.4 The financial burden for OEMs
Even assuming that most of the technologies outlined above will be standard
by 2020 – which means that manufacturers will benefit from significant
economies of scale – the average extra cost per vehicle in the future
will be several hundred euros or US dollars.