Powertrain 2020 - The Future Drives Electric (PDF ... - Roland Berger

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74 | Study At the same time, key European suppliers such as Bosch and Continental are increasing research in this area in an attempt to counterbalance Asian dominance. Existing players (excepting those in Asia) essentially have to start from scratch when it comes to developing the new electrified components and systems. This makes it much easier for new players to gain a foothold in the market than was previously the case in the highly mature automotive component market. Indeed, a number of new players such as A123, Litec and Tesla are already offering innovative technologies in specific components, trying to gain a share of the attractive revenues in this section of the value chain. The task facing them is a challenging one for two reasons: strong reactions are expected from incumbents, and heavy up-front investments are required in this field. Battery cells have a number of different potential chemical compositions. Moreover, safety requirements often conflict with performance requirements. The R&D expenses and production investments involved are also enormous. Only the strongest players will be able to achieve the required economies of scale. This is likely to result in a first supplier concentration process, similar to that found in the semiconductor industry. Other key components such as electric motors and power electronics also require large up-front investments and rely on companies tapping into economies of scale. Consequently innovative new players are more likely to enter on the software side and in specialized market niches. 4.3.3 Strategic partnerships OEMs must try to identify strategic partners with the expertise and solid finncial backing required to secure access to technological know-how. The joint ventures mentioned below, such as LiTech between Daimler and Evonik in Germany, are good examples of such attempts.
75 | "Powertrain 2020 – The Future Drives Electric" Established suppliers such as Bosch and Continental are also trying to support their in-house development activities with joint ventures with leading independent players. This is particularly the case in the area of batteries, with the newly formed SB LiMotive (a 50-50 joint venture between Bosch and Samsung) being one good example. Changing technologies for other components, such as air conditioning and cooling, will create additional opportunities for suppliers, while compensating for losses in the traditional components business. 4.4 Vehicles Another key part of the mobility value chain is the development, manufacture and sale of complete vehicles. Current OEMs are in a natural pole position here with regard to EVs due to the need for comprehensive expertise, established brand names, strong customer relationships and major up-front investment. Things will not necessarily stay that way, however. New technological requirements, competent suppliers, excellent engineering service providers and hesitation on the part of OEMs are creating opportunities for new players to challenge the status quo in this key section of the value chain.
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Michael Valentine-Urbschat, Dr. Wol
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2 | Study Contents Executive summar
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4 | Study 1. High-power and high-en
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6 | Study Introduction There can be
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8 | Study These developments have r
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10 | Study To achieve this ambitiou
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12 | Study 1.2 Regulatory framework
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14 | Study The Chinese domestic aut
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16 | Study 1.2.2 Support for resear
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18 | Study 1.2.3 Steering demand In
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20 | Study 1.2.4 Authorities and lo
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22 | Study In Japan, Honda's new mi
Page 26 and 27: 24 | Study Full hybrid powertrains
Page 28 and 29: 26 | Study Most of the technologies
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Page 32 and 33: 30 | Study If most of the powertrai
Page 34 and 35: 32 | Study OEMs selling in the Euro
Page 36 and 37: 34 | Study PHEVs can take a number
Page 38 and 39: 36 | Study The new versions will mo
Page 40 and 41: 38 | Study For high-end application
Page 42 and 43: 40 | Study To follow the path of le
Page 44 and 45: 42 | Study Battery charger When an
Page 46 and 47: 44 | Study But Li-Ion batteries hav
Page 48 and 49: 46 | Study The exact chemical make-
Page 50 and 51: 48 | Study Battery costs will mainl
Page 52 and 53: 50 | Study To summarize, battery te
Page 54 and 55: 52 | Study 2.2.3.5 Conclusions As w
Page 56 and 57: 54 | Study 3. Scenarios for the dev
Page 58 and 59: 56 | Study 3.2.1 Meeting customers'
Page 60 and 61: 58 | Study Model 2: "Like gas stati
Page 62 and 63: 60 | Study The first generation of
Page 64 and 65: 62 | Study 3.2.2 Attractive pricing
Page 66 and 67: 64 | Study Driver 3b: Battery price
Page 68 and 69: 66 | Study For all intents and purp
Page 70 and 71: 68 | Study Given these uncertaintie
Page 72 and 73: 70 | Study 4. Impact on the mobilit
Page 74 and 75: 72 | Study 4.2.2 Raw materials for
Page 78 and 79: 76 | Study 4.4.1 Financial burden a
Page 80 and 81: 78 | Study 4.5 Infrastructure and e
Page 82 and 83: 80 | Study 4.7 Summary The coming c
Page 84 and 85: 82 | Study What does the story of t
Page 86 and 87: 84 | Study But, in addition to all
Page 88 and 89: 86 | Study Synthesis: Define your g
Page 90 and 91: 88 | Study Step 3: Define your posi
Page 92 and 93: 90 | Study > In early phases, autom
Page 94 and 95: 92 | Study Implementation and timin
Page 96 and 97: 94 | Study Co-authors Ralf Kalmbach
Page 98: 96 | Study Co-authors Jesus Salvado
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