Powertrain 2020 - The Future Drives Electric (PDF ... - Roland Berger

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68 | Study Given these uncertainties, we have developed two different scenarios. Our first scenario assumes a slower penetration of EVs and PHEVs in the next 5 to 10 years, and rather a stronger demand for smaller, efficient ICE-powered vehicles. We call this scenario "Downsized mobility." Our second scenario is rather more optimistic about the development of e-mobility. It foresees higher oil prices, accelerated battery cost reduction, stronger government support and a broader product range in the next five to ten years, making EVs a very attractive alternative by 2020. We call this scenario "The future drives electric." "Downsized mobility" reflects the opinion of those experts who foresee a longer transition period before prices for key components such as batteries come down, subsidies/tax benefits are implemented by authorities and the necessary investments in infrastructure are executed. However, even the more pessimistic experts think that EVs will come in over the longer term. As mentioned earlier, the debate is not about whether it will happen, but when.
69 | "Powertrain 2020 – The Future Drives Electric" "The future drives electric" sees the market for EVs developing much faster, mainly due to governments' carrot and stick approach. In this scenario, EVs and PHEVs achieve a market share of around 20% in Western Europe by 2020, making this region the frontrunner in the field of electric mobility.
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Michael Valentine-Urbschat, Dr. Wol
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2 | Study Contents Executive summar
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4 | Study 1. High-power and high-en
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6 | Study Introduction There can be
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8 | Study These developments have r
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10 | Study To achieve this ambitiou
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12 | Study 1.2 Regulatory framework
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14 | Study The Chinese domestic aut
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16 | Study 1.2.2 Support for resear
Page 20 and 21: 18 | Study 1.2.3 Steering demand In
Page 22 and 23: 20 | Study 1.2.4 Authorities and lo
Page 24 and 25: 22 | Study In Japan, Honda's new mi
Page 26 and 27: 24 | Study Full hybrid powertrains
Page 28 and 29: 26 | Study Most of the technologies
Page 30 and 31: 28 | Study
Page 32 and 33: 30 | Study If most of the powertrai
Page 34 and 35: 32 | Study OEMs selling in the Euro
Page 36 and 37: 34 | Study PHEVs can take a number
Page 38 and 39: 36 | Study The new versions will mo
Page 40 and 41: 38 | Study For high-end application
Page 42 and 43: 40 | Study To follow the path of le
Page 44 and 45: 42 | Study Battery charger When an
Page 46 and 47: 44 | Study But Li-Ion batteries hav
Page 48 and 49: 46 | Study The exact chemical make-
Page 50 and 51: 48 | Study Battery costs will mainl
Page 52 and 53: 50 | Study To summarize, battery te
Page 54 and 55: 52 | Study 2.2.3.5 Conclusions As w
Page 56 and 57: 54 | Study 3. Scenarios for the dev
Page 58 and 59: 56 | Study 3.2.1 Meeting customers'
Page 60 and 61: 58 | Study Model 2: "Like gas stati
Page 62 and 63: 60 | Study The first generation of
Page 64 and 65: 62 | Study 3.2.2 Attractive pricing
Page 66 and 67: 64 | Study Driver 3b: Battery price
Page 68 and 69: 66 | Study For all intents and purp
Page 72 and 73: 70 | Study 4. Impact on the mobilit
Page 74 and 75: 72 | Study 4.2.2 Raw materials for
Page 76 and 77: 74 | Study At the same time, key Eu
Page 78 and 79: 76 | Study 4.4.1 Financial burden a
Page 80 and 81: 78 | Study 4.5 Infrastructure and e
Page 82 and 83: 80 | Study 4.7 Summary The coming c
Page 84 and 85: 82 | Study What does the story of t
Page 86 and 87: 84 | Study But, in addition to all
Page 88 and 89: 86 | Study Synthesis: Define your g
Page 90 and 91: 88 | Study Step 3: Define your posi
Page 92 and 93: 90 | Study > In early phases, autom
Page 94 and 95: 92 | Study Implementation and timin
Page 96 and 97: 94 | Study Co-authors Ralf Kalmbach
Page 98: 96 | Study Co-authors Jesus Salvado
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Powertrain 2020 - The Future Drives Electric (PDF ... - Roland Berger

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