Powertrain 2020 - The Future Drives Electric (PDF ... - Roland Berger

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"Powertrain 2020 – The Future Drives Electric"
While the initial public charging infrastructure will rely on the proven
conductive, cable-bound charging technology, the future may be inductive
charging. The latter offers higher charging convenience for the customers,
is better protected against vandalism, requires less maintenance and is
"invisible" – i.e. underground, not disturbing the cityscape. Whether this
will happen depends on the upcoming improvements in the efficiency level
of inductive charging systems, costs and safety issues. But even if inductive
charging were to become reality, we still expect traditional charging to
remain in use as this would provide low-cost charging opportunities on
private property.
Rollout of infrastructure
To minimize investment without constraining market development,
the infrastructure rollout will most likely start in areas where the biggest
customer densities are expected. As discussed above, the limited driving
range of pure EVs make them particularly suitable as second cars for short
everyday trips. Early adopters are likely to be technologically minded,
concerned about ecological issues and above-average earners. This segment
of the population tends to be concentrated in large urban areas. Public
infrastructure is thus likely to be built first of all in these areas, with a
wider rollout occurring from 2015 onward.
As is generally the case in new markets, first movers are most likely to
acquire a large market share. They will then maintain this leading position
over a longer period of time.