Powertrain 2020 - The Future Drives Electric (PDF ... - Roland Berger

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66 | Study For all intents and purposes, the current economic crisis does not appear to have had a significant impact on the development plans for EVs and PHEVs already announced by manufacturers. Indeed, a number of OEMs have been adamant that their strategic plans with regard to this new technology will not be influenced. The coming months will show whether these statements hold true or not. 3.3 "Push" – Encouraging OEMs to produce EVs and PHEVs Our assumption is that the governments of major OECD countries will live up to their "pioneering role" in reducing CO 2 emissions in all sectors, including road transportation. As we saw in Chapter 1, the IEA's Scenario 450 reveals that LDVs in OECD countries would have to almost halve their new car fleet emissions by 2020 compared to today's levels to achieve the proposed vehicle stock emission reductions. In Chapter 2 we saw that the potential improvements to ICEs, although important in themselves, are limited in their overall effect. EVs and PHEVs would therefore need to form a large share of the new car sales fleet by 2020.
67 | "Powertrain 2020 – The Future Drives Electric" We foresee that the governments of OECD countries will introduce major customer incentive programs for EVs and PHEVs in the future. This step will help overcome the price disadvantages of the vehicles in the initial years after market introduction. This is the "pull" effect, stimulating demand. At the same time, however, we expect European governments in particular to raise the pressure on OEMs to produce EVs and PHEVs. They will do this by further tightening up fleet emission targets in the period to 2020 and offering support programs for R&D and manufacturing. We call this the "push" effect. The governments of countries with a significant vehicle manufacturing industry will no doubt also use this carrot and stick approach to establish their own OEMs as leading players in the field. With enormous upside potential, especially in the US and China, we expect the global race for leadership of the market to speed up in the coming years. At present, the Japanese are ahead, but key European players see themselves as naturally filling this role. Leading OEMs such as Toyota, Daimler and GM have already committed their organizations to "re-inventing the automobile." Be that as it may, the financial situation in which the auto industry finds itself today will no doubt trigger intense discussion between OEMs and governments about the necessary government actions and their precise timeline. 3.4 Market forecast for PHEVs and EVs We expect the market penetration of EVs to develop strongly over the next ten years. The exact speed and strength of this development will depend on the key drivers described above, and how they change over time. The greatest uncertainties with regard to the future relate to the building of infrastructure and the TCO benefits of EVs. When end customers no longer have to pay a premium and the vehicles meet their mobility needs, the mass introduction of EVs and/or PHEVs is highly likely. Government support in the form of one-time subsidies and annual tax benefits will be a major lever for TCO. However, it is difficult at this stage to say how strong the political will is to implement such measures on a global basis.
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Michael Valentine-Urbschat, Dr. Wol
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2 | Study Contents Executive summar
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4 | Study 1. High-power and high-en
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6 | Study Introduction There can be
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8 | Study These developments have r
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10 | Study To achieve this ambitiou
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12 | Study 1.2 Regulatory framework
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14 | Study The Chinese domestic aut
Page 18 and 19: 16 | Study 1.2.2 Support for resear
Page 20 and 21: 18 | Study 1.2.3 Steering demand In
Page 22 and 23: 20 | Study 1.2.4 Authorities and lo
Page 24 and 25: 22 | Study In Japan, Honda's new mi
Page 26 and 27: 24 | Study Full hybrid powertrains
Page 28 and 29: 26 | Study Most of the technologies
Page 30 and 31: 28 | Study
Page 32 and 33: 30 | Study If most of the powertrai
Page 34 and 35: 32 | Study OEMs selling in the Euro
Page 36 and 37: 34 | Study PHEVs can take a number
Page 38 and 39: 36 | Study The new versions will mo
Page 40 and 41: 38 | Study For high-end application
Page 42 and 43: 40 | Study To follow the path of le
Page 44 and 45: 42 | Study Battery charger When an
Page 46 and 47: 44 | Study But Li-Ion batteries hav
Page 48 and 49: 46 | Study The exact chemical make-
Page 50 and 51: 48 | Study Battery costs will mainl
Page 52 and 53: 50 | Study To summarize, battery te
Page 54 and 55: 52 | Study 2.2.3.5 Conclusions As w
Page 56 and 57: 54 | Study 3. Scenarios for the dev
Page 58 and 59: 56 | Study 3.2.1 Meeting customers'
Page 60 and 61: 58 | Study Model 2: "Like gas stati
Page 62 and 63: 60 | Study The first generation of
Page 64 and 65: 62 | Study 3.2.2 Attractive pricing
Page 66 and 67: 64 | Study Driver 3b: Battery price
Page 70 and 71: 68 | Study Given these uncertaintie
Page 72 and 73: 70 | Study 4. Impact on the mobilit
Page 74 and 75: 72 | Study 4.2.2 Raw materials for
Page 76 and 77: 74 | Study At the same time, key Eu
Page 78 and 79: 76 | Study 4.4.1 Financial burden a
Page 80 and 81: 78 | Study 4.5 Infrastructure and e
Page 82 and 83: 80 | Study 4.7 Summary The coming c
Page 84 and 85: 82 | Study What does the story of t
Page 86 and 87: 84 | Study But, in addition to all
Page 88 and 89: 86 | Study Synthesis: Define your g
Page 90 and 91: 88 | Study Step 3: Define your posi
Page 92 and 93: 90 | Study > In early phases, autom
Page 94 and 95: 92 | Study Implementation and timin
Page 96 and 97: 94 | Study Co-authors Ralf Kalmbach
Page 98: 96 | Study Co-authors Jesus Salvado
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