Powertrain 2020 - The Future Drives Electric (PDF ... - Roland Berger

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"Powertrain 2020 – The Future Drives Electric"
We foresee that the governments of OECD countries will introduce major
customer incentive programs for EVs and PHEVs in the future. This step will
help overcome the price disadvantages of the vehicles in the initial years
after market introduction. This is the "pull" effect, stimulating demand.
At the same time, however, we expect European governments in particular
to raise the pressure on OEMs to produce EVs and PHEVs. They will do this
by further tightening up fleet emission targets in the period to 2020 and
offering support programs for R&D and manufacturing. We call this the
"push" effect.
The governments of countries with a significant vehicle manufacturing
industry will no doubt also use this carrot and stick approach to establish
their own OEMs as leading players in the field. With enormous upside
potential, especially in the US and China, we expect the global race for
leadership of the market to speed up in the coming years. At present, the
Japanese are ahead, but key European players see themselves as naturally
filling this role.
Leading OEMs such as Toyota, Daimler and GM have already committed
their organizations to "re-inventing the automobile." Be that as it may, the
financial situation in which the auto industry finds itself today will no doubt
trigger intense discussion between OEMs and governments about the necessary
government actions and their precise timeline.
3.4 Market forecast for PHEVs and EVs
We expect the market penetration of EVs to develop strongly over the next
ten years. The exact speed and strength of this development will depend on
the key drivers described above, and how they change over time.
The greatest uncertainties with regard to the future relate to the building of
infrastructure and the TCO benefits of EVs. When end customers no longer
have to pay a premium and the vehicles meet their mobility needs, the mass
introduction of EVs and/or PHEVs is highly likely. Government support in
the form of one-time subsidies and annual tax benefits will be a major lever
for TCO. However, it is difficult at this stage to say how strong the political
will is to implement such measures on a global basis.